Starting Pitcher Chart – June 20th
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Starting Pitcher Chart – June 20th
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Framber Valdez | HOU | NYM | x | x | x | 91 | 2.27 | 1.03 | 21% | 7th | Career-high 26% K rate has him in the Top 5 starters and while he likely won’t hold these ratios, he’s a Top 10 rest of season for me | |
| 2 | Spencer Strider | ATL | at | PHI | x | x | x | 78.2 | 4.12 | 1.13 | 30% | 9th | 13 ER and 5 HR in his L2 and 10 HR in his L6 is definitely a bit alarming but I can’t see sitting him in a 2-step |
| 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | at | CHW | x | x | x | 93.2 | 2.59 | 0.98 | 20% | 30th | Just a fantastic start to the season for Eovaldi |
| 4 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | at | LAA | x | x | x | 82.1 | 2.95 | 1.11 | 23% | 9th | Kershaw v. Trout & Ohtani should be fun |
| 5 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | SEA | x | x | x | 91.2 | 2.75 | 1.11 | 19% | 23rd | Ran through LAD, BOS, and NYM pretty easily after the 10 ER in the previous 2 starts | |
| 6 | George Kirby | SEA | at | NYY | x | x | x | 80.2 | 3.24 | 1.07 | 20% | 26th | Toting a 26% K rate in his L7 starts, including a season-high 10 his last time out |
| 7 | Bailey Ober | MIN | BOS | x | x | x | 57.2 | 2.65 | 0.99 | 18% | 17th | He has become an all formats Must Start (ranked SP31 so far) | |
| 8 | Tyler Glasnow | TBR | BAL | x | x | x | 21 | 3.43 | 1.29 | 17% | 10th | Wonky control keeping the WHIP up, but he’s still too good to sit anywhere | |
| 9 | Justin Verlander | NYM | at | HOU | x | x | x | 45 | 4.40 | 1.22 | 14% | 11th | Let’s hope he can break his 1 up, 1 down pattern over his L7 because if not, here comes a dud (I don’t believe in these patterns and I’m not sitting JV anywhere) |
| 10 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | at | PIT | x | x | x | 91.2 | 2.45 | 1.04 | 13% | 18th | Has won 6 straight starts |
| 11 | Dylan Cease | CHW | TEX | x | x | x | 79.1 | 4.31 | 1.34 | 16% | 2nd | 2022 Cease, is that you? 2.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 23% K-BB in his L3 starts (17 IP)… tough spot, but I don’t see myself sitting him in many spots | |
| 12 | Eury Pérez | MIA | TOR | x | x | x | 35 | 1.80 | 1.09 | 16% | 3rd | Just 1 ER in his L4 starts (21 IP) with 20 Ks | |
| 13 | Aaron Civale | CLE | OAK | x | x | x | 27 | 2.67 | 1.26 | 11% | 29th | SDP ran his pitch count up and chased him after 3.7 IP though part of that was getting 7 Ks… easy start in a 2-step w/OAK on the docket | |
| 14 | Reid Detmers | LAA | LAD | x | x | x | 62.1 | 4.48 | 1.46 | 18% | 1st | He’s been a WHIP bummer this yr, but I just don’t see the .362 BABIP staying that high… his 32% roster rate at Y! is too low for me | |
| 15 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | STL | x | x | x | 74.2 | 3.74 | 1.38 | 17% | 26th | Has enough upside to take on the risk in most spots, even with a trip to SDP this weekend | |
| 16 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | at | TBR | x | x | 60 | 3.90 | 1.27 | 14% | 14th | A brilliant outing v. TOR puts him at 3.42 ERA/1.12 WHIP since that 7 ER dud v. BOS… I see the case in 12s & up for sure | |
| 17 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | at | MIN | x | x | 40.2 | 4.20 | 1.13 | 19% | 20th | Still putting up an 18% K-BB in these 3 starts despite the modest results (6.30 ERA, 1.98 WHIP) so I’m sticking with him in a lot of formats | |
| 18 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | at | MIA | x | x | 71 | 4.31 | 1.37 | 16% | 5th | Has only allowed 2 ER in each of his L4 starts but still with a 2.3 HR rate makes him tough to trust but he gets 2 including OAK this wknd so I’m down to take the shot | |
| 19 | Ranger Suárez | PHI | ATL | x | x | 37.2 | 3.82 | 1.33 | 15% | 13th | It’s a spicy 2-step w/ATL & NYM (though neither are peaking right now) but I’m open to starting him in most formats | ||
| 20 | Daniel Lynch | KCR | at | DET | x | x | 23.1 | 5.79 | 1.41 | 13% | 8th | 5-run 5th inn. sank his last start (4 HR!) but he went 2 more IP after that which was encouraging; was great in MiLB, too, so he’s a very viable streamer | |
| 21 | Michael Lorenzen | DET | KCR | x | x | 66 | 4.23 | 1.09 | 12% | 24th | HRs are smoking him (7 HR in his 3 duds over his L5); KCR is 26th in HRs v. RH so this is a decent spot start | ||
| 22 | Johan Oviedo | PIT | CHC | x | x | 75.2 | 4.40 | 1.47 | 11% | 28th | WHIP risk has upside and he’s a solid streamer candidate in juicy matchups | ||
| 23 | Jordan Montgomery | STL | at | WSN | x | x | 78.1 | 3.91 | 1.34 | 15% | 18th | With the W risk being undercut by StL’s rough start, he is a lot harder to start all the time… team streamer for now and WSN doesn’t K | |
| 24 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | CIN | COL | x | x | 42 | 4.07 | 1.21 | 18% | 7th | He’s been pretty good as a starter though his home park will always add risk (1.7 HR) | ||
| 25 | Seth Lugo | SDP | at | SFG | x | 41.2 | 4.10 | 1.37 | 15% | 6th | I don’t blame anyone who passes the 1st start off the IL; given that it’s a 2-step, I’m open to streaming him if you’re willing to take on the risk | ||
| 26 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | SDP | x | 79.1 | 4.31 | 1.18 | 13% | 16th | On that Verlander 1 up, 1 down run over his L6 with 2 Ks in 3 of ’em so I don’t mind sitting him here, but I’m reluctant to cut in 12s or deeper | |||
| 27 | Colin Rea | MIL | ARI | x | 57.1 | 4.71 | 1.26 | 12% | 5th | Hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any of his 11 starts, but has allowed exactly that in 5 starts; hasn’t been matchup-dependent w/his best starts coming v. good tms | |||
| 28 | Luis Medina | OAK | at | CLE | 39.1 | 7.55 | 1.60 | 11% | 22nd | Hasn’t done nearly enough to make any matchup all that appealing | |||
| 29 | Kyle Freeland | COL | at | CIN | 80.1 | 4.48 | 1.34 | 8% | 2nd | Passing on most guys v. CIN right now, not that Freeland is a major consideration in anything but the best matchups on the road | |||
| 30 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | at | MIL | 71.1 | 5.30 | 1.54 | 6% | 27th | Not sure any matchup is enough to get me to start a sub-10% K-BB |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
MLB.com has Noah Davis listed for the Rockies today.
I’m scared to start Detmers, but gonna do it. Sorry if it ruins his day.
I’m nervous, too, but rolling with him!
You guys must be gluttons to start him against the Dodgers… and at home against Kershaw too, which means even lower chance for a W even if he actually pitches well.
Outside of Coors, this may well be the 2nd or 3rd worst context for a good return from him — probably facing the Braves w/ a when-hot Strider on the mound or maybe the Rays w/ McClanahan (and again, at home) might be the only clear worse for him.
Hmmm… ok, he did do quite well the last couple starts against the Cubbies and then Rangers in Texas, but only got the W against the Cubbies, not the Rangers, but still… I guess the Ks are just that enticing (or needed?), if you don’t mind the risk to your WHIP, NVM your ERA.
Atlanta has a team .383 wOBA against lefties this year going .301/.359/.545. The closest comp to that is probably Tatis who is at .284/.351/.553 so lefties facing Atlanta is like facing an entire lineup of Tatises. Acuna has a .428 wOBA against lefties and he is 5th on the team in that split. Other than Olson and Harris, everyone on that team just crushes lefties.
I don’t have Suarez anywhere but man, I’d be thinking real hard about sitting him tonight. . . . .