Starting Pitcher Chart – June 14th

by Paul Sporer

June 14, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Wednesday, June 14th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	at	DET	x	x	x	73.2	3.79	1.09	31%	28th	HRs finally caught up to him v. NYM (6 of 8 ER) after dodging major issues with 5 in his previous 4 starts
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		MIA	x	x	x	76.2	2.70	0.99	24%	8th	My AL Cy Young pick is rolling lately with just 4 ER in his L4 after 5 ER at BOS
3	Clayton Kershaw	LAD		CHW	x	x	x	76.1	2.95	1.09	24%	16th	Even at 35 y/o, he is one of the game’s best and if he stays healthy, he can be a Top 5 guy for the whole season
4	Framber Valdez	HOU		WSN	x	x	x	84	2.36	1.06	21%	7th	Those pesky Nats can sneak up on lefties, but it’s not like we’re sitting a Top 5 SP
5	Tyler Glasnow	TBR	at	OAK	x	x	x	15.2	2.87	1.09	20%	30th	Are we sure we want to run any SP against these blistering A’s???
6	Gerrit Cole	NYY	at	NYM	x	x	x	85.2	2.84	1.14	18%	14th	WHIP is a little high for that ERA if we want to nitpick… he’s still an easy top 3 and the #1 for most
7	Bailey Ober	MIN		MIL	x	x	x	51.2	2.61	0.97	17%	25th	Can we believe the 5% HR/FB he’s run for 108 IP dating back to last yr despite the massive FB lean (52%)? The 17% K-BB keeps me fully interested
8	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		PHI	x	x	x	77	2.92	1.10	17%	19th	Has quietly been excellent this yr and ranks as a Top 10 pitcher in 5×5 formats
9	Reid Detmers	LAA	at	TEX	x	x	x	56.1	4.79	1.51	18%	2nd	Lagging LOB and elevated BABIP have his numbers in shambles right now, but I remain fully confident in the 23 y/o lefty & I’m picking him up everywhere
10	Michael Wacha	SDP		CLE	x	x	x	68	3.18	1.09	16%	20th	On a complete heater with a 1.51 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 18% K-BB over his last 48 IP, going at least 6 IP in 6 of the 8 starts
11	José Berríos	TOR	at	BAL	x	x	x	77.1	3.61	1.23	15%	17th	Question if you have Berríos on your tm: is your confidence back w/him? Do you set it & forget it?
12	Eury Pérez	MIA	at	SEA	x	x	x	29	2.17	1.21	14%	24th	About the only flaw in his profile is the 11% BB which isn’t terribly surprising for a flamethrowing rookie… all told, he’s delivering on the hype
13	Justin Verlander	NYM		NYY	x	x	x	39	4.85	1.33	12%	12th	Rocking an every other good start pattern w/1, 6, 1, 6, 1, 4 ER across his L6 (5.03 ERA) but I just can’t see sitting him anywhere
14	Garrett Whitlock	BOS		COL	x	x	x	32	4.78	1.28	15%	7th	Season ERA is a bit elevated in 6 starts, but the skills are solid (1.7 HR rate is inflated by 3 HR in his opener v. TB) & this is a great matchup
15	Drew Smyly	CHC		PIT		x	x	71.2	3.27	1.16	14%	17th	Has survived a schedule gauntlet (at HOU, NYM, CIN, at SDP, at LAA) w/a 4.28 ERA in those 27 IP
16	Ranger Suárez	PHI	at	ARI		x	x	30.2	4.70	1.43	14%	10th	Was a bit wobbly in his first 3 off the IL before settling in 3 starts since: 1.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 13% K-BB… still not full on start v. ARI, though
17	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	at	STL		x	x	76.1	3.89	1.13	12%	3rd	Only 2 Ks in each of his last 3 starts and actually has more BB in that time (6 K, 7 BB) but still 2 QS and 1 dud… tough matchup that I’m OK skipping you’re nervous
18	Jordan Montgomery	STL		SFG		x	x	72	3.88	1.33	15%	13th	Hit rate surge has his WHIP at a 4-yr high but maybe he can start to shave his .319 BABIP back closer to his career .293 mark
19	Aaron Civale	CLE	at	SDP		x	x	23.1	2.31	1.07	10%	22nd	Solid in 2 starts since returning from the IL and as long as you’re OK w/the modest K totals, he’s a worthy streamer in several spots
20	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN	at	KCR		x	x	36.1	4.21	1.13	19%	27th	5 HR in his last 2 starts handled the regression, pushing his ERA from 1.99 to 4.21 in short order
21	Kyle Bradish	BAL		TOR			x	53	4.25	1.36	15%	2nd	I’m a big Bradish fan, but I’m completely fine sitting out this matchup… worth noting he has a 3.52 ERA/1.18 WHIP in his L7 since May 1st
22	Reese Olson	DET		ATL			x	10	2.70	0.70	18%	4th	It’s risky against ATL, but I’m down to stream him especially since it’s a 2-step (at MIN this wknd slated for Sunday even after the rainout)
23	Andrew Heaney	TEX		LAA			x	63	4.14	1.25	14%	8th	Just 3 HR in his L6 has yielded a 2.94 ERA, but I stay pretty cautious against LAA with streamer types
24	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	HOU			x	72	3.00	1.40	8%	6th	The 8% K-BB is making him a tough start even w/the newfound HR suppression… no worse than a team streamer so hold him if you pass on this start
25	Mike Clevinger	CHW	at	LAD			x	58	4.19	1.38	9%	9th	Has allowed more than 3 ER just once in his L6 starts w/a 3.74 ERA & 1.23 WHIP in that time, not sure that’s enough to get me on this matchup in many spots, though
26	Colin Rea	MIL	at	MIN			x	52.1	4.47	1.22	13%	13th	He’s held his own and not allowed more than 4 ER in any start making himself a decent deep lg streamer
27	Daniel Lynch	KCR		CIN				16.1	4.41	1.47	16%	9th	Interesting lefty hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in his 3 starts (2 UER in one of ’em helped) but I’m being more careful w/CIN these days (5 R/gm in their L9)
28	Michael Lorenzen	DET		ATL				60	3.75	1.02	13%	4th	A rough 7th (4 H & ER) spoiled his last outing (6 IP/2 ER before that) but keeps his streak of 0-1 ER or 5+ ER outings (6 of the former, 4 of the latter)… ATL too risky for me
29	Luis Medina	OAK		TBR				34.2	7.53	1.56	10%	15th	Shouts to my guy Hogan Harris for standing up v. TBR… I’m not seeing as much upside w/Medina and even liking Harris, I still didn’t reco him v. TBR
30	Collin McHugh	ATL	at	DET				25.2	2.81	1.68	4%	28th	Looks like ATL is going with a bullpen gm in 1 of the doubleheader games
31	Osvaldo Bido	PIT	at	CHC				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	29th	27 y/o righty getting a spot start after a 24% K and 11% BB in 55 IP at AAA
32	Austin Gomber	COL	at	BOS				60.2	7.57	1.75	4%	4th	Don’t get Gombered

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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9 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

GreggMember since 2020

3 years ago

Reese Olson is not going to pitch on three days rest this weekend despite what your comment says.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Gregg

lol def not… I legit thought today was Tuesday. I’m totally off track for the week!

TreyMember since 2020

Thanks as always for these. Braves have just announced that Dylan Dodd is being called up as 27th man to start game 2 of the DH instead of bullpen game

LightenUpFGMember since 2018

A week ago, Gomber against Boston might have actually worked. They seem to have figured out their hitting issues lately, though.

TheUncool

I’m waffling on Verlander after his up-and-down (although the downs have been against Coors or tougher lineups than these Judge-less Yanks would seem to be this year, except they also still pummeled Scherzer just yesterday). Plus he’s facing Cole at home, so a W isn’t that likely unless he completely shuts the Yanks down in vintage form.

Father Time just finally seems to be catching up w/ him (and maybe Scherzer too)…

And as mediocrely as the Yanks lineup have performed this year, they still do hit plenty of HRs (even aside from Judge), which is one slight weakness w/ Verlander even before his (recent) woes this year. Meanwhile, they still have their upside to break out and blast almost anyone away (as clearly seen yesterday against Scherzer), so… :-p

Maybe if I paid a lot to roster him and definitely need him to perform in this spot I guess…, but fortunately, I don’t have to worry about sunk cost in this particular case…

Meanwhile, think I’m actually gonna roll Montgomery out there against SFG (in the same salary dynasty league where I have Verlander) — SFG seems significantly weaker against lefties, especially w/out JD Davis and Haniger in their lineup (at least) today…

FWIW, this league counts Holds, and I have a pretty solid bullpen to fill the spots, so not using Verlander doesn’t mean letting a spot go wasted — I also have Glasnow going today there.

Last edited 3 years ago by TheUncool

booondMember since 2019

Strider needs to go into the shop as he isn’t fooling anyone.

Reply to booond

Absolutely getting merked by the Tigers!!! Didn’t see that one comin’!

ChristopherMember since 2021

like Detmers, but not planning to start him at TEX. think Lively has a better performance today as a streaming option in shallow leagues. let’s see!

Reply to Christopher

Yeah, I wouldn’t wanna start Detmers in TEX either — that Arlington park seems to play quite hitter/homer-friendly this year on top of the Rangers being a tough assignment anyway.