Starting Pitcher Chart – June 12th, 2024

Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

 

Sorry for no post yesterday. I feel asleep early and then didn’t really have a window to write it today until it was too late.

Starter Notes June 12, 2024
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK L30/Season NOTE
1 Framber Valdez HOU at SFG x x x 63 3.53 1.15 13% 3rd/15th One bad IP v. LAA is the only interruption in his L6: 3.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 41 IP
2 Logan Webb SFG v HOU x x x 86 2.92 1.20 15% 4th/5th Back in a groove and I can’t wait to watch these 2 duel! (2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 19% K-BB in 40 IP)
3 Bryce Miller SEA v CHW x x x 75 3.81 1.02 17% 26th/30th A much-needed reprieve in opposition after a run of at BAL, at NYY, HOU, LAA, at KCR (5.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 12% K-BB in 28 IP); I like him to get right here
4 Tanner Bibee CLE at CIN x x x 70 3.73 1.19 19% 11th/21st Righted the ship over his L5 w/a 2.12 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 22% K-BB
5 Sonny Gray STL v PIT x x x 61 3.21 1.07 25% 18th/29th 2+ BB in each of his L5 has left his results on the knife’s edge: 4.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 22% K-BB… he’s a rotation staple, though
6 Nick Pivetta BOS v PHI x x x 42 3.40 0.94 26% 17th/8th Revenge game is a nice challenge as he looks to stay hot after dominance v. ATL (7
7 Michael King SDP v OAK x x x 78 3.58 1.22 16% 28th/26th Steady waters of late: 1.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 17% K-BB in L4; hopefully you held through the choppiness early on
8 Nick Lodolo CIN v CLE x x x 52 2.92 0.99 21% 13th/12th Rolling since his return from the IL, falling just 2 outs shy of 3 QS w/16 Ks and just 3 BB
9 Pablo López MIN v COL x x x 71 5.45 1.23 21% 15th/19th This is now 3 flameouts in his L4, but the 4th was 7 IP/1 ER at HOU so he’s all over the place… espec. after 6 BB in NYY; all that said I’m betting on his 21% K-BB and hoping that Colorado is the Rx he needs
10 Reese Olson DET v WSN x x x 65 3.43 1.20 13% 25th/22nd Trounced in his last 2 (13 ER) and yet I have a tough time sitting him here; still had an 11/2 K:BB in those duds and the velo & spin profiles are in line… stay the course
11 José Soriano LAA at ARI x x x 64 3.64 1.21 11% 16th/23rd Sub-10% SwStr in 3 of his L4, but the surface results remain steady (3.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
12 Chris Bassitt TOR at MIL x x x 73 3.80 1.38 13% 9th/2nd MIL is tough, but he’s absolutely rolling: 2.51 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 16% K-BB in L7 (43 IP)
13 Walker Buehler LAD v TEX x x x 28 4.82 1.46 15% 30th/14th Definitely not himself right now and yet TEX is a hot matchup right now so I’m inclined to stay the course
14 David Peterson NYM v MIA x x x 11 3.09 1.29 4% 25th/27th Meager 4% K-BB hasn’t curbed results and MIA presents a good chance to keep getting away, but eventually he’ll need to improve to remain viable
15 Cristopher Sánchez PHI at BOS x x x 66 2.71 1.34 14% 17th/7th Took some time settle and it’s always tough in Fenway, but he’s toting a 1.48 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 18% K-BB in his L3
16 Jake Irvin WSN at DET x x x 75 3.12 1.03 17% 12th/20th Biggest hiccups were skippable (at LAD, at PHI — would’ve missed the 6 scoreless v. LAD, too), but I’m starting to gain confidence in even tougher setups… definitely playable everywhere at DET
17 Hogan Harris OAK at SDP x x 20 2.21 1.13 12% 21st/3rd Scooped him in the Main Event after somce nice work in 2 starts since joining the rotation… not a must start bc I still respect SDP’s offense, just don’t overlook him
18 Bailey Falter PIT at STL x x 68 3.69 1.04 10% 24th/10th May hot streak couldn’t carry into June after LAD start; worth a look at STL
19 Jon Gray TEX at LAD x 59 2.12 1.18 17% 22nd/4th Not confirmed here after a 9-out relief app. in his return from the IL; I’m OK skipping this even w/LAD sputtering in the L30 days
20 Cody Poteet NYY at KCR x 15 1.72 0.96 11% 10th/9th On the radar after this nice run, but let’s be careful against a very solid KCR lineup… tough part is Cole takes his spot so probably needn’t hold if you’ve got him
21 Braxton Garrett MIA at NYM x 26 5.81 1.22 18% 5th/16th He’s run the gamut since returning w/a shutty at ARI and 3 starts of 5+ ER… intriguing STL/SEA 2-step next wk if he excels here
22 Cade Povich BAL v ATL x 5 10.13 1.69 -8% 16th/11th This will be a really interesting matchup as both rookies have upside that could pay dividends given their strong supporting casts… startable, but high-risk
23 Spencer Schwellenbach ATL at BAL x 9 8.38 1.55 13% 5th/6th
24 Tobias Myers MIL v TOR x 34 4.15 1.24 13% 6th/13th Had the Tigers off balance all day w/only 3 batted balls carrying a .400 or better expected AVG and 2 of ’em were outs
25 Javier Assad CHC at TBR x 69 2.74 1.22 14% 29th/28th Was never going to stay that hot and that’s OK… I will say I’m impressed by his 26% K during this regression run (5.66 ERA, 1.68 WHIP in L4), but can it hold w/a 6% SwStr?
26 Aaron Civale TBR v CHC x 67 5.51 1.36 17% 13th/17th The 1.8 HR9 is killing him, but if he can fix that then the 17% K-BB (ranked 31st) can definitely bring some good results
27 Slade Cecconi ARI v LAA x 41 5.66 1.14 12% 27th/25th Far better v. sub-.500 clubs: 4.15 ERA/0.97 WHIP so he’s worth considering here
28 Austin Gomber COL at MIN 66 3.38 1.20 9% 26th/18th A couple wobbly starts after a brilliant May, but his 1-3 record underscores his nearly non-exsitent Win probability
29 Jonathan Cannon CHW at SEA 16 5.94 1.62 17% 21st/24th
30 Daniel Lynch IV KCR v NYY 16 5.63 1.19 9% 9th/1st It’s aces-only against NYY at this juncture
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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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bd00
10 months ago

How much do you value the predictive stats (xERA, xFIP, xFIP-, SIERA) when they differ significantly from what has taken place (ERA)? Which is your favorite?