Starting Pitcher Chart – April 3rd, 2024

Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Starter Notes April 3, 2024
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK Last Season NOTE
1 Spencer Strider ATL at CHW x x x 186 3.86 1.09 29% 30th Cannot fathom trying to hit him in nasty 40-degree weather
2 Corbin Burnes BAL v KCR x x x 193 3.39 1.07 17% 26th Obviously an auto-start in all formats, but KC might be sneaky deece this year!
3 Nick Pivetta BOS at OAK x x x 142 4.04 1.12 23% 29th Picked up where last yr left off w/an absolute gem to open the yr (48% K, 19% SwStr in 6 IP)
4 Tyler Glasnow LAD v SFG x x x 120 3.53 1.08 26% 23rd Whiffs are there (16% SwStr) even though Ks haven’t been yet (19% K)
5 Zack Wheeler PHI v CIN x x x 192 3.61 1.08 22% 10th Keep tabs on the weather for DFS purposes as they’ve moved this gm up to hopefully get it in
6 George Kirby SEA v CLE x x x 190 3.35 1.04 20% 22nd One of my favorite pitchers to watch every fifth day
7 Cole Ragans KCR at BAL x x x 96 3.47 1.16 18% 17th Another gem of a matchup for Ragans, this time squaring off v. Burnes
8 Cristian Javier HOU v TOR x x x 162 4.56 1.27 14% 11th I’ll be keeping tabs on this new changeup usage to see how much of it sticks (28% in 1st start; 5% career)
9 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI v NYY x x x 177 3.29 1.19 16% 27th Tough matchup, but confidence is running pretty high w/Kelly after 2022-23
10 Casey Mize DET at NYM x x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 16th PPD Tuesday night moving Mize to Wed; Skubal to Thurs
11 Joe Musgrove SDP v STL x x x 97 3.05 1.14 19% 9th Still rolling him out there, but can’t pretend I’m nerve-free after a bumpy ST and 2 meh starts
12 Aaron Civale TBR v TEX x x x 122 3.46 1.16 16% 3rd Won’t blame shallow leaguers for sitting out, but I’m riding w/him
13 Logan Allen CLE at SEA x x x 125 3.81 1.40 13% 14th Bumpy outing at OAK wasn’t fun to see, but sticking w/him for another couple (CHW after this)
14 Chris Bassitt TOR at HOU x x x 200 3.60 1.18 15% 7th Similar to Civale where I understand a shallow sit, but he’s a guy I trust
15 Nathan Eovaldi TEX at TBR x x x 144 3.63 1.14 15% 4th When healthy, he’s pretty much a must-ish start
16 Carlos Rodón NYY at ARI x x 64 6.85 1.45 13% 13th Open to some sits here, though still holding everywhere w/MIA next wk
17 Mitch Keller PIT at WSN x x 194 4.21 1.25 19% 25th Velo down over 1 mph, but it’s 1 start and he still had a sparkling 16% SwStr
18 Adrian Houser NYM v DET x x 111 4.12 1.39 13% 28th Moved back after PPD… streamable start given DET’s slow offensive start
19 Patrick Sandoval LAA at MIA x x 144 4.11 1.51 8% 21st If he flops here, we move on, but a good start would earn another wk on roster
20 A.J. Puk MIA v LAA x x 56 3.97 1.18 27% 15th Utterly disastrous debut, but I gotta give him more than 2 IP… need to see some improvements here
21 Chris Paddack MIN at MIL x x 5 5.40 1.40 32% 24th Was the cheapest avenue into the MIN rotation, I’m eager to see what he does this yr
22 Frankie Montas CIN at PHI x 1 0.00 2.25 0% 6th A long-time Sporer fave… I wanna be in, but PHI is almost as bad as his home park so be careful
23 Joe Ross MIL v MIN #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 5th Speaking of Sporer faves, he’s back on my radar after a 30% K/19% SwStr in ST but gotta see something first
24 Kyle Harrison SFG at LAD 34 4.15 1.15 16% 2nd Very intriguing young arm, but can’t do it at LAD
25 Nick Nastrini CHW v ATL #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1st An interesting arm to keep tabs on, but not sure CHW SPs are going to shut ATL down B2B nights
26 Cal Quantrill COL at CHC 99 5.24 1.46 5% 12th Have a tinge of streamer viability outside of Coors, but deeeeep lgs only
27 Zack Thompson STL at SDP 66 4.48 1.42 16% 18th Could be a righty Quantrill w/some streamer potential throughout the season, but not here
28 Drew Smyly CHC v COL 142 5.00 1.43 14% 19th Miiiight run this in SUPER deep lgs just bc COL looks so bad to start the yr
29 Trevor Williams WSN v PIT 144 5.55 1.60 9% 20th Be careful streaming v. PIT even w/more viable arms
30 Ross Stripling OAK v BOS 89 5.36 1.35 14% 8th What a day for old Sporer faves, alas I haven’t gone to the Strip-a-Dip well in quite some time
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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williamolson
19 days ago

Could you provide an example of a statistical-based note that might be included in the chart? uno online