Starting Pitcher Chart – April 3rd
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it! Why didn’t I have one for Opening Day? Mostly because everyone on Opening Day is an easy start. Honestly, there aren’t a ton of tough decisions in these first few days, but I still want to get into the routine of doing it so we’ll start with Friday’s light slate (the lighter slate on Day 2 of the season is to protect against potential rain/snow outs on Opening Day in the colder weather environments).
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | LAST YEAR | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Detmers | LAA | at SEA | L | x | x | x | 3.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 14% K-BB | Breakout coming after 2H surge? (26% K-BB in L13 GS) |
| Hunter Brown | HOU | DET | R | x | x | x | 0.89 ERA ,1.08 WHIP, 19% K-BB | Great 1st matchup as the young righty starts his bid to be a full-yr SP |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at WAS | R | x | x | x | 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 16% K-BB | Is there a K% breakthrough coming to better leverage his 12% SwStr? |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | NYM | R | x | x | x | 3.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 19% K-BB | A bit overlooked after inj.-laden ’22; just some good health away from SP1-2 yr |
| Nestor Cortes | NYY | PHI | L | x | x | x | 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 20% K-BB | Hammy didn’t end up costing him time despite the discount in some drafts |
| George Kirby | SEA | LAA | R | x | x | x | 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 21% K-BB | His proponents are hoping for a rise in the 10% SwStr |
| Jon Gray | TEX | BAL | R | x | x | x | 3.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB | Can he reach 150+ IP for the first time since 2019? |
| Tyler Mahle | MIN | at MIA | R | x | x | x | 4.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17% K-BB | Rich upside w/his 1st full season outside of Cincy if he can remain healthy |
| Brady Singer | KCR | TOR | R | x | x | x | 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 19% K-BB | What does he do for an encore after his ’22 breakout? |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | at TEX | R | x | x | x | 4.90 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 13% K-BB | Excellent close (22% K-BB in L13 GS) made him a popular sleeper |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | at STL | R | x | x | x | 4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20% K-BB | Inconsistencies were behind ERA surge & could remain an issue for 39 y/o RHP |
| Kutter Crawford | BOS | PIT | R | x | x | 5.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 14% K-BB | L3 starts tanked his season #s (12.08 ERA, 2.54 WHIP) despite solid 18% K-BB | |
| Carlos Carrasco | NYM | at MIL | R | x | x | 3.97 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17% K-BB | Age & health kept his price very reasonable in draft season (~260 ADP) | |
| Michael Kopech | CWS | SFG | R | x | x | 3.54 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10% K-BB | Modest K-BB belied his sharp ratios making him a major wildcard for ’23 | |
| Ryne Nelson | ARI | at SDP | R | x | x | 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 15% K-BB | Remarkably difficult 2-step for high upside righty (at SDP/v. LAD) | |
| Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | at CWS | R | x | x | 6.63 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 14% K-BB | Don’t forget his ’21: 3.17 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 168 IP; 28% K-BB in ST, too | |
| Matthew Boyd | DET | at HOU | L | x | x | 1.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9% K-BB | Can be mixed-lg worthy if ’21 HR rate (1.0) holds in return to SP | |
| Michael Grove | LAD | COL | R | x | x | 4.60 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Lost 5th SP to Pepiot who was subsequently IL’d opening door for Grove | |
| Zach Plesac | CLE | at OAK | R | x | x | 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Standard streamer & trip to OAK gives this 2-step some value | |
| José Berríos | TOR | at KCR | R | x | 5.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 14% K-BB | Cooould rebound, but 1.50 WHIP & 11% K-BB in ST don’t inspire a ton of confidence | ||
| Johnny Cueto | MIA | MIN | R | x | 3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Great rebound yr in ’22, but will new rules mess w/his funky mechanics? | ||
| Drew Smyly | CHC | at CIN | L | x | 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15% K-BB | Deep-lg streamer at best w/tough matchups this wk: at CIN/v. TEX | ||
| Taijuan Walker | PHI | at NYY | R | x | 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13% K-BB | Tough 2-step to kick off the yr at NYY/v. CIN | ||
| Johan Oviedo | PIT | at BOS | R | 3.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 13% K-BB | A watchlist guy for me as his BOS/v. CWS setup is really hard | |||
| Jake Woodford | STL | ATL | R | 2.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7% K-BB | Finesse arm did spike a 26% K in spring so I’m keeping an eye on him | |||
| Trevor Williams | WAS | TBR | R | 3.21 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 16% K-BB | Most of that success came as RP (4.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 13% K-BB) | |||
| James Kaprielian | OAK | CLE | R | 4.23 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7% K-BB | His 5.04 SIERA last yr calls BS on the decent ERA | |||
| Ryan Weathers | SDP | ARI | L | 9.82 ERA, 2.73 WHIP, -5% K-BB | Those #s are in 4 IP, but his 11% K-BB from ’21 isn’t great, either | |||
| Connor Overton | CIN | CHC | R | 2.73 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2% K-BB | The 5.44 SIERA says he hasn’t shifted the window on how to succeed w/low K-BB | |||
| Ryan Feltner | COL | at LAD | R | 5.83 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Gets a trip to LAD and then heads home to Coors… hard pass |
I feel like Tony Disco has been a forgotten man this draft season. He was really good in 2021, or can that be written off as part of SF’s totally magical season that year?
I’m definitely intrigued. Could be a nice waiver gem if he finds any health