Starting Pitcher Chart – April 3rd

Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it! Why didn’t I have one for Opening Day? Mostly because everyone on Opening Day is an easy start. Honestly, there aren’t a ton of tough decisions in these first few days, but I still want to get into the routine of doing it so we’ll start with Friday’s light slate (the lighter slate on Day 2 of the season is to protect against potential rain/snow outs on Opening Day in the colder weather environments).

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.

Monday, April 3rd Starters
Reid Detmers LAA at SEA L x x x 3.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 14% K-BB Breakout coming after 2H surge? (26% K-BB in L13 GS)
Hunter Brown HOU DET R x x x 0.89 ERA ,1.08 WHIP, 19% K-BB Great 1st matchup as the young righty starts his bid to be a full-yr SP
Drew Rasmussen TBR at WAS R x x x 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 16% K-BB Is there a K% breakthrough coming to better leverage his 12% SwStr?
Freddy Peralta MIL NYM R x x x 3.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 19% K-BB A bit overlooked after inj.-laden ’22; just some good health away from SP1-2 yr
Nestor Cortes NYY PHI L x x x 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 20% K-BB Hammy didn’t end up costing him time despite the discount in some drafts
George Kirby SEA LAA R x x x 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 21% K-BB His proponents are hoping for a rise in the 10% SwStr
Jon Gray TEX BAL R x x x 3.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB Can he reach 150+ IP for the first time since 2019?
Tyler Mahle MIN at MIA R x x x 4.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17% K-BB Rich upside w/his 1st full season outside of Cincy if he can remain healthy
Brady Singer KCR TOR R x x x 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 19% K-BB What does he do for an encore after his ’22 breakout?
Kyle Bradish BAL at TEX R x x x 4.90 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 13% K-BB Excellent close (22% K-BB in L13 GS) made him a popular sleeper
Charlie Morton ATL at STL R x x x 4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20% K-BB Inconsistencies were behind ERA surge & could remain an issue for 39 y/o RHP
Kutter Crawford BOS PIT R x x 5.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 14% K-BB L3 starts tanked his season #s (12.08 ERA, 2.54 WHIP) despite solid 18% K-BB
Carlos Carrasco NYM at MIL R x x 3.97 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17% K-BB Age & health kept his price very reasonable in draft season (~260 ADP)
Michael Kopech CWS SFG R x x 3.54 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10% K-BB Modest K-BB belied his sharp ratios making him a major wildcard for ’23
Ryne Nelson ARI at SDP R x x 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 15% K-BB Remarkably difficult 2-step for high upside righty (at SDP/v. LAD)
Anthony DeSclafani SFG at CWS R x x 6.63 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 14% K-BB Don’t forget his ’21: 3.17 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 168 IP; 28% K-BB in ST, too
Matthew Boyd DET at HOU L x x 1.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9% K-BB Can be mixed-lg worthy if ’21 HR rate (1.0) holds in return to SP
Michael Grove LAD COL R x x 4.60 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 11% K-BB Lost 5th SP to Pepiot who was subsequently IL’d opening door for Grove
Zach Plesac CLE at OAK R x x 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 11% K-BB Standard streamer & trip to OAK gives this 2-step some value
José Berríos TOR at KCR R x 5.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 14% K-BB Cooould rebound, but 1.50 WHIP & 11% K-BB in ST don’t inspire a ton of confidence
Johnny Cueto MIA MIN R x 3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11% K-BB Great rebound yr in ’22, but will new rules mess w/his funky mechanics?
Drew Smyly CHC at CIN L x 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15% K-BB Deep-lg streamer at best w/tough matchups this wk: at CIN/v. TEX
Taijuan Walker PHI at NYY R x 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13% K-BB Tough 2-step to kick off the yr at NYY/v. CIN
Johan Oviedo PIT at BOS R 3.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 13% K-BB A watchlist guy for me as his BOS/v. CWS setup is really hard
Jake Woodford STL ATL R 2.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7% K-BB Finesse arm did spike a 26% K in spring so I’m keeping an eye on him
Trevor Williams WAS TBR R 3.21 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 16% K-BB Most of that success came as RP (4.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 13% K-BB)
James Kaprielian OAK CLE R 4.23 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7% K-BB His 5.04 SIERA last yr calls BS on the decent ERA
Ryan Weathers SDP ARI L 9.82 ERA, 2.73 WHIP, -5% K-BB Those #s are in 4 IP, but his 11% K-BB from ’21 isn’t great, either
Connor Overton CIN CHC R 2.73 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2% K-BB The 5.44 SIERA says he hasn’t shifted the window on how to succeed w/low K-BB
Ryan Feltner COL at LAD R 5.83 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 11% K-BB Gets a trip to LAD and then heads home to Coors… hard pass
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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1 year ago

I feel like Tony Disco has been a forgotten man this draft season. He was really good in 2021, or can that be written off as part of SF’s totally magical season that year?