Starting Pitcher Chart – April 28th

April 28, 2023

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Trying something new by splitting up the data a bit with the recos & comments in one chart and the recos and stats in another. Let me know if that’s preferable to putting it all in one. I decided this after writing it, but for the future this could give me a bit more space for deeper comments, too. At any rate, I’m open to any feedback even if it’s constructive criticism!

Friday, April 28th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Jacob deGrom	TEX		NYY	R	x	x	x	Low 55% LOB rate has ERA elevated at 3.04 compared to his microscopic 1.88 SIERA
2	Pablo López	MIN		KCR	R	x	x	x	Velo up 1.6 mph, career-best K (32%) and SwStr (15%) rates have him off to an excellent start
3	Framber Valdez	HOU		PHI	L	x	x	x	Has gone 6-7 IP in his L4 after just 5 in the opener; about as steady as it gets
4	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	TOR	R	x	x	x	My AL Cy Young pick looks amazing so far!
5	Zach Eflin	TBR	at	CHW	R	x	x	x	Shaping up nicely after his first 3 starts thanks in part to a career-high 12% SwStr rate
6	Jesús Luzardo	MIA		CHC	L	x	x	x	Started the breakout last yr, but only lasted 100 IP… will this be the year we get a full 30 starts?
7	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	Nothing under the hood supports the 5 pt jump in K rate (26%); heed the 3.72 SIERA
8	Max Fried	ATL	at	NYM	L	x	x	x	Leaning on a 93% LOB rate for his 0.60 ERA with just 1 ER in 3 starts
9	Shane Bieber	CLE	at	BOS	R	x	x	x	3 straight 4-K games has his rate down to 18%, can’t argue w/the ratios, though
10	Alek Manoah	TOR		SEA	R	x	x	x	7 innings of shutout ball with 2 H in Yankee Stadium assuaged a lot of fears
11	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	at	DET	R	x	x	x	Some bumps for the rookie, but he has at least 5 Ks in all four of his starts
12	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		BAL	L	x	x	x	Riding a 17-inning scoreless streak; data on facing the same tm 2x in a row says there is no advantage one way or the other regardless of how the 1st start goes
13	Aaron Nola	PHI	at	HOU	R	x	x	x	Hasn’t been great, but I’m obviously not sitting him anywhere
14	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	LAD	R		x	x	Running a much more palatable 19% K-BB rate after an impossibly bad -13% in his first 2 starts
15	Dustin May	LAD		STL	R		x	x	Pre-injury dominance isn’t there so that ERA will rise as his .195 BABIP regresses… I’m starting him but nervous about a pending dud
16	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	MIL	L		x	x	Hasn’t kept gains from last yr w/3 straight duds; the matchup is worth a stream, but another dud would really put him on the outs
17	Wade Miley	MIL		LAA	L			x	Usually good for a handful of streamer runs over the course of a season, we’re in one right now
18	Nick Pivetta	BOS		CLE	R			x	Has enough upside to be a worthy streamer against lower end matchup & CLE’s bats haven’t been able to match ’22 success
19	Drew Rucinski 루친스키	OAK		CIN	R			x	Returning after 4 yrs in KBO where he pitched well (3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15% K-BB in 733 IP); I could see a deep lg stream
20	Rich Hill	PIT	at	WSN	L			x	Does have a pair of gems in his L2 (1 ER, 7 K in both), but this is still a low percentage stream
21	Lucas Giolito	CHW		TBR	R				7 ER in 1 outing at PIT; 7 ER in his other 4 starts combined… still don’t want to roll him v. TBR
22	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at	COL	R				Not worth the risk in Coors
23	Kyle Freeland	COL		ARI	L				Had 3 gems to open the yr before a 7 ER dud and that dud is what we’re trying to avoid so he’s an easy sit for me
24	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	at	TEX	R				Finally had a successful start and the 3.78 SIERA says more can be on the way; coinflip stream in deep lgs, might be better off waiting for CLE next wk
25	David Peterson	NYM		ATL	L				Devastating 2.5 HR rate has ERA at 7.36 despite a 3.75 SIERA… won’t be easy to improve that v. ATL
26	Jordan Lyles	KCR	at	MIN	R				Just not enough upside to take on the risk
27	Luis Cessa	CIN	at	OAK	R				I know it’s OAK, but I’m not starting a negative K-BB rate against anyone
28	Chad Kuhl	WSN		PIT	R				Hard pass

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Friday, April 28th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Jacob deGrom	TEX		NYY	R	x	x	x	26.2	3.04	0.79	39%	0.312	19th
2	Pablo López	MIN		KCR	R	x	x	x	30	3.00	1.03	26%	0.255	30th
3	Framber Valdez	HOU		PHI	L	x	x	x	32	2.25	1.16	20%	0.328	12th
4	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	TOR	R	x	x	x	29.2	1.52	0.81	25%	0.339	7th
5	Zach Eflin	TBR	at	CHW	R	x	x	x	16	2.81	1.00	24%	0.287	26th
6	Jesús Luzardo	MIA		CHC	L	x	x	x	27.1	3.62	1.39	20%	0.354	6th
7	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	29	2.17	1.00	17%	0.293	24th
8	Max Fried	ATL	at	NYM	L	x	x	x	15	0.60	0.93	15%	0.316	17th
9	Shane Bieber	CLE	at	BOS	R	x	x	x	30.2	3.23	1.17	10%	0.333	9th
10	Alek Manoah	TOR		SEA	R	x	x	x	26.1	5.13	1.56	4%	0.310	20th
11	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	at	DET	R	x	x	x	19.1	5.12	1.60	17%	0.265	29th
12	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		BAL	L	x	x	x	31	2.32	0.84	17%	0.347	7th
13	Aaron Nola	PHI	at	HOU	R	x	x	x	28.1	5.40	1.34	11%	0.316	16th
14	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	LAD	R		x	x	27.1	3.29	1.35	6%	0.350	3rd
15	Dustin May	LAD		STL	R		x	x	29.1	3.07	0.92	8%	0.325	12th
16	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	MIL	L		x	x	20	7.20	1.70	3%	0.278	30th
17	Wade Miley	MIL		LAA	L			x	23	1.96	0.96	14%	0.359	4th
18	Nick Pivetta	BOS		CLE	R			x	19.2	4.58	1.37	16%	0.292	25th
19	Drew Rucinski 루친스키	OAK		CIN	R			x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.302	22nd
20	Rich Hill	PIT	at	WSN	L			x	26	4.85	1.42	12%	0.336	8th
21	Lucas Giolito	CHW		TBR	R				28	4.50	1.18	19%	0.365	1st
22	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at	COL	R				26.1	3.42	1.33	7%	0.302	21st
23	Kyle Freeland	COL		ARI	L				27.1	4.28	1.21	10%	0.317	14th
24	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	at	TEX	R				20	6.30	1.55	20%	0.349	5th
25	David Peterson	NYM		ATL	L				25.2	7.36	1.64	18%	0.389	2nd
26	Jordan Lyles	KCR	at	MIN	R				31.1	4.88	1.18	12%	0.315	18th
27	Luis Cessa	CIN	at	OAK	R				16.2	10.80	2.34	-1%	0.285	27th
28	Chad Kuhl	WSN		PIT	R				18.1	7.36	1.75	2%	0.330	11th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues