Starting Pitcher Chart – April 25th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Trying something new by splitting up the data a bit with the recos & comments in one chart and the recos and stats in another. Let me know if that’s preferable to putting it all in one. I decided this after writing it, but for the future this could give me a bit more space for deeper comments, too. At any rate, I’m open to any feedback even if it’s constructive criticism!
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | HOU | R | x | x | x | All 5 of his ER came in a single start at TOR | |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | NYY | R | x | x | x | Everything is a bit better… except the HR rate. Well, I guess it’s better in that there are fewer base runners to score from them | |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | at | PHI | R | x | x | x | Big test for the 26-yr old stud |
| Justin Steele | CHC | SDP | L | x | x | x | He’s a full all formats start for me right now | |
| Nestor Cortes | NYY | at | MIN | L | x | x | x | An easy Auto Start right now |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | BOS | R | x | x | x | Great in his IL return; not an easy matchup, but I’m all in on him this yr | |
| Mason Miller | OAK | at | LAA | R | x | x | x | Start 2 for the phenom, here’s hoping he can go 5 IP this time out |
| Griffin Canning | LAA | OAK | R | x | x | x | Solid through 2 starts, OAK could be the remedy for his modest 20% K rate | |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | MIA | R | x | x | x | BB and hit spike have WHIP soaring & MIA can take advantage if he isn’t sharp, but I can’t pass up this start | |
| José Berríos | TOR | CHW | R | x | x | 2 sharp outings v. TBR and at HOU + an overall strong K-BB give him some intrigue | ||
| Peyton Battenfield | CLE | COL | R | x | x | x | That 18% SwStr has to start delivering some Ks soon… right? | |
| Noah Syndergaard | LAD | at | PIT | R | x | x | He’s just going to be a nerve-wracking start all yr, so get used to it! | |
| Eric Lauer | MIL | DET | L | x | x | Pumpkining back into 2018-19 Lauer? He had a lot of usable starts as that iteration (73% were 3 ER or fewer) | ||
| Johan Oviedo | PIT | LAD | R | x | x | I’m… *gulp* …so excited to start him! Jokes aside, I am taking the shot here w/an SP I believe in who’s dealing | ||
| Brady Singer | KCR | at | ARI | R | x | x | Looks a lot more like 2020-21 Singer right now with 5 pt drop in K-BB | |
| Corey Kluber | BOS | at | BAL | R | x | This is dicey, but a trip to BAL is one of the few instances where I’d even consider him right now | ||
| Bailey Falter | PHI | SEA | L | x | SEA hasn’t been tough, but a single digit K-BB rate leaves him susceptible to a blowup | |||
| José Butto | NYM | at | WSN | R | x | Only allowed 1 ER at OAK despite 9 base runners; another great matchup, but be careful | ||
| Ryne Nelson | ARI | KCR | R | x | Just doesn’t have a consistent swing-and-miss pitch (9% SwStr in 40 MLB IP) | |||
| Mike Clevinger | CHW | at | TOR | R | 2 gems and 2 duds… feeling lucky? | |||
| Luis Garcia | HOU | at | TBR | R | Only studs v. TBR… sorry, Luis! | |||
| Josiah Gray | WSN | at | NYM | R | Just 1 HR in his L3 starts incl. a trip to Coors, but you know Pete Alonso is going bridge tonight! | |||
| Luke Weaver | CIN | TEX | R | I’ll stay tuned to this start after 8 Ks in his season debut, but no universe where I’d start him | ||||
| Martín Pérez | TEX | at | CIN | L | CIN offense hasn’t gotten going, but this park scares me… just not worth the risk | |||
| Blake Snell | SDP | at | CHC | L | Flashes are there, but his command and control have been inconsistent | |||
| Sean Manaea | SFG | STL | L | Not nearly trustworthy enough to take on the top offense vL | ||||
| Spencer Turnbull | DET | at | MIL | R | Too inconsistent to trust right now | |||
| Bryan Hoeing | MIA | at | ATL | R | MLB season debut | |||
| Jake Woodford | STL | at | SFG | R | I just don’t see any real upside | |||
| Ryan Feltner | COL | at | CLE | R | I just don’t see any real upside |
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | HOU | R | x | x | x | 22.1 | 2.01 | 0.94 | 22% | 0.313 | 17th | |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | NYY | R | x | x | x | 25 | 3.24 | 0.76 | 26% | 0.314 | 16th | |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | at | PHI | R | x | x | x | 22.2 | 3.57 | 1.01 | 27% | 0.351 | 4th |
| Justin Steele | CHC | SDP | L | x | x | x | 25 | 1.44 | 0.88 | 17% | 0.307 | 17th | |
| Nestor Cortes | NYY | at | MIN | L | x | x | x | 23.1 | 3.09 | 1.03 | 19% | 0.283 | 26th |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | BOS | R | x | x | x | 7.2 | 0.00 | 1.04 | 19% | 0.334 | 8th | |
| Mason Miller | OAK | at | LAA | R | x | x | x | 4.1 | 4.15 | 1.15 | 22% | 0.307 | 19th |
| Griffin Canning | LAA | OAK | R | x | x | x | 10.1 | 3.48 | 1.16 | 12% | 0.284 | 27th | |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | MIA | R | x | x | x | 22.1 | 3.22 | 1.61 | 7% | 0.303 | 23rd | |
| José Berríos | TOR | CHW | R | x | x | 21.2 | 6.23 | 1.20 | 19% | 0.304 | 21st | ||
| Peyton Battenfield | CLE | COL | R | x | x | x | 10.2 | 1.69 | 0.94 | 12% | 0.303 | 22nd | |
| Noah Syndergaard | LAD | at | PIT | R | x | x | 22 | 4.91 | 1.23 | 16% | 0.326 | 11th | |
| Eric Lauer | MIL | DET | L | x | x | 23 | 4.30 | 1.26 | 12% | 0.246 | 30th | ||
| Johan Oviedo | PIT | LAD | R | x | x | 24.1 | 2.22 | 1.15 | 17% | 0.359 | 2nd | ||
| Brady Singer | KCR | at | ARI | R | x | x | 21 | 8.14 | 1.52 | 14% | 0.318 | 15th | |
| Corey Kluber | BOS | at | BAL | R | x | 18 | 8.50 | 1.50 | 11% | 0.324 | 13th | ||
| Bailey Falter | PHI | SEA | L | x | 22 | 4.50 | 1.18 | 9% | 0.278 | 27th | |||
| José Butto | NYM | at | WSN | R | x | 5 | 1.80 | 1.80 | -9% | 0.274 | 28th | ||
| Ryne Nelson | ARI | KCR | R | x | 22 | 4.91 | 1.18 | 7% | 0.254 | 30th | |||
| Mike Clevinger | CHW | at | TOR | R | 19.1 | 3.26 | 1.50 | 5% | 0.326 | 12th | |||
| Luis Garcia | HOU | at | TBR | R | 21 | 5.14 | 1.38 | 18% | 0.381 | 1st | |||
| Josiah Gray | WSN | at | NYM | R | 21.2 | 3.74 | 1.48 | 7% | 0.329 | 10th | |||
| Luke Weaver | CIN | TEX | R | 6 | 6.00 | 1.00 | 26% | 0.354 | 3rd | ||||
| Martín Pérez | TEX | at | CIN | L | 21.1 | 3.38 | 1.55 | 13% | 0.291 | 25th | |||
| Blake Snell | SDP | at | CHC | L | 18 | 6.00 | 1.89 | 9% | 0.353 | 6th | |||
| Sean Manaea | SFG | STL | L | 13 | 5.54 | 1.23 | 18% | 0.398 | 1st | ||||
| Spencer Turnbull | DET | at | MIL | R | 18.1 | 7.85 | 1.69 | 5% | 0.342 | 7th | |||
| Bryan Hoeing | MIA | at | ATL | R | #N/A | – | – | – | 0.322 | 14th | |||
| Jake Woodford | STL | at | SFG | R | 19.1 | 6.05 | 1.71 | 7% | 0.350 | 5th | |||
| Ryan Feltner | COL | at | CLE | R | 19 | 6.16 | 1.68 | 8% | 0.293 | 26th |
I love that you are doing this through the season!