Starting Pitcher Chart – April 22nd, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
Talked a bit in my chat about doing a full week ranking at some point and while I wasn’t able to do that this weekend, I do have a new feature: a 2-start ranking board!
Monday Morning Update:
- Added Grayson Rodriguez because he is probably getting Baltimore’s 2-step instead of Albert Suarez.
- Added Michael King, didn’t see that he and Cease were both getting 2-steps this wk
2-Start Rankings for the Week
| RANK | TYPE | PITCHER | MATCHUPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | at TBR/at KCR |
| 2 | 1 | Jared Jones | MIL/at SFG |
| 3 | 1 | Dylan Cease | at COL/PHI |
| 4 | 1 | Logan Gilbert | at TEX/ARI |
| 5 | 1 | Grayson Rodriguez | at LAA/OAK |
| 6 | 1 | Tanner Houck | at CLE/CHC |
| 7 | 1 | Hunter Greene | PHI/at TEX |
| 8 | 1 | Carlos Rodón | OAK/at MIL |
| 9 | 2 | Reid Detmers | BAL/MIN |
| 10 | 2 | Zack Littell | DET/at CWS |
| 11 | 2 | James Paxton | at WSN/at TOR |
| 12 | 2 | Michael King | at COL/PHI |
| 13 | 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | at CIN/at SDP |
| 14 | 2 | Ranger Suárez | at CIN/at SDP |
| 15 | 2 | Marcus Stroman | OAK/at MIL |
| 16 | 2 | Yusei Kikuchi | at KCR/LAD |
| 17 | 3 | Brady Singer | TOR/at DET |
| 18 | 3 | Michael Wacha | TOR/at DET |
| 19 | 3 | Dane Dunning | SEA/CIN |
| 20 | 3 | Brandon Pfaadt | at STL/at SEA |
| 21 | 3 | Andrew Abbott | PHI/at TEX |
| 22 | 4 | Bryce Elder | MIA, CLE |
| 23 | 4 | Albert Suarez maybe? | at LAA/OAK |
| 24 | 4 | Lance Lynn | ARI/at NYM |
| 25 | 4 | Keaton Winn | NYM/PIT |
| 26 | 4 | Jose Quintana | at SFG/STL |
| 27 | 4 | Jordan Wicks | HOU/at BOS |
| 28 | 4 | Wade Miley | at PIT/NYY |
| 29 | 4 | Chris Paddack | CWS/at LAA |
| 30 | 4 | Jonathan Cannon | at MIN/TBR |
| 31 | 5 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | BOS/at ATL |
| 32 | 5 | Joe Ross | at PIT/NYY |
| 33 | 5 | Paul Blackburn | at NYY/at BAL |
| 34 | 5 | Taijuan Walker | perhaps at CIN/at SDP |
| 35 | 6 | Bailey Falter | MIL/at SFG |
| 36 | 6 | JP Sears | at NYY/at BAL |
| 37 | 6 | Patrick Corbin | LAD/at MIA |
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2- All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
1 – Auto-Start | 2- All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
And now, Monday’s board:
Starter Notes April 22, 2024
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | DET at TBR | x | x | x | 23 | 2.28 | 0.80 | 23% | 17th | |
| 2 | Jared Jones | PIT v MIL | x | x | x | 23 | 3.13 | 0.78 | 34% | 2nd | |
| 3 | Reynaldo López | ATL v MIA | x | x | x | 18 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 18% | 22nd | |
| 4 | Carlos Rodón | NYY v OAK | x | x | x | 19 | 3.66 | 1.68 | 8% | 24th | At least he’s giving you a decent ERA (3.66)… whattya gonna do, sit him v. OAK? |
| 5 | Hunter Greene | CIN v PHI | x | x | x | 20 | 4.35 | 1.31 | 23% | 26th | |
| 6 | Zack Littell | TBR v DET | x | x | x | 21 | 2.14 | 1.33 | 19% | 27th | |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | PHI at CIN | x | x | x | 26 | 1.73 | 0.77 | 24% | 9th | |
| 8 | Chris Paddack | MIN v CHW | x | x | x | 14 | 8.36 | 2.07 | 6% | 30th | |
| 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR at KCR | x | x | x | 21 | 2.08 | 1.15 | 24% | 18th | Gotta start him everywhere while he’s rolling, especially w/the modest 0.4 HR9 |
| 10 | Dylan Cease | SDP at COL | x | x | x | 22 | 1.99 | 0.93 | 18% | 10th | I’ll never blame anyone for fading Coors, I still run top end talent there & Cease’s stuff can survive there |
| 11 | Reid Detmers | LAA v BAL | x | x | 22 | 1.19 | 0.97 | 27% | 19th | Love Detmers, but BAL does scare me so I don’t mind some sits, especially in daily moves leagues | |
| 12 | Albert Suárez 수아레즈 | BAL at LAA | x | x | 5 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 19% | 14th | Jumped on the radar in Spring Training in return from KBO, sharp debut & coooould get a 2-step, but the off-day makes GrayRod going Tue/Sun more doable so don’t bet on it | |
| 13 | Brady Singer | KCR v TOR | x | x | 23 | 1.54 | 0.86 | 18% | 20th | ||
| 14 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI at STL | x | x | 23 | 5.32 | 1.23 | 20% | 24th | This is the kind of volatility that HR-happy pitchers bring | |
| 15 | Lance Lynn | STL v ARI | x | x | 20 | 2.18 | 1.21 | 14% | 16th | Speaking of HR-based volatility… | |
| 16 | Keaton Winn | SFG v NYM | x | x | 22 | 4.09 | 1.09 | 10% | 18th | Logged at least 5 IP in each of his 4 starts | |
| 17 | Jose Quintana | NYM at SFG | x | x | 20 | 3.05 | 1.50 | 5% | 14th | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start, need that 6% K-BB to start pushing up | |
| 18 | Ryan Weathers | MIA at ATL | x | 20 | 2.70 | 1.35 | 15% | 8th | Coming off the 10-K gem, I could see taking the swing here w/WSH this wknd | ||
| 19 | Jonathan Cannon | CHW at MIN | x | 5 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 11% | 29th | Miiight take a deep-league shot on the 2-step (v. TB this wknd) in deep lgs | ||
| 20 | Joe Ross | MIL at PIT | x | 14 | 4.91 | 1.64 | 9% | 13th | |||
| 21 | JP Sears | OAK at NYY | 20 | 4.35 | 1.16 | 0% | 11th | ||||
| 22 | Austin Gomber | COL v SDP | 20 | 4.95 | 1.50 | 11% | 10th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
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These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Jon Gray vs SEA, CIN ?
Love the 2 start ranks though! Thanks, Paul!
I think Dunning got Texas’s 2-start instead
Very useful the 2-starts rankings. Where would you rank Michael King’s?
My bad on missing King, missed that he AND Cease are getting the 2-start. I’m a full start on King, I love him. He’s no worse than Tier 2 (All Formats)
Agreed. Maybe throw on an asterisx or something when start #2 is the Sunday? Those get slipped kind of a lot and really can’t be counted on
2 start ranks is a great addition!!
No notes on Paddack? I know his schedule has been BRUTAL, but so are his numbers. The White Sox are bad, but they are still major leaguers. Any thoughts on what you expect from him tonight?
If he’s on my roster, I’m starting him v. CHW or else he shouldn’t be on the roster (which is valid, too, btw)
The White Sox have a .255 team wOBA. That’s last by 22 points. They strike out at a top 10 rate, walk at a bottom 10 rate and are last in ISO by 9 points at .101. There’s no question Paddack has had his issues but the Sox are just dreadful right now.
I wouldn’t be so sure that the O’s will move Grayson up a day in the rotation to pitch the last game against a bad A’s team instead of letting him get the extra day of rest and stay on schedule to pitch game one against the Yankees the next day.
I totally agree, that’s why I originally didn’t include Grayson, but then I saw some sites giving him the Sunday start
Reynaldo pushed back to Wednesday with the callup of Elder. You guys were even joking about this on S&TB, and it happened. This is the third week in a row he was scheduled to get two starts, and this time it’s not even because of a rainout.
Can’t remember this ever happening before, very annoying. At least he’s pitching well when he actually gets to start.