Starting Pitcher Chart – April 18th
by Paul Sporer
April 17, 2023
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Game 1 of the PHI/CWS doubleheader wasn’t listed by accident, but Wheeler & Lynn are easy starts for me.
Tuesday, April 18th Starters
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | T | 10 | 12 | 15+ | 2023 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | ATL | at | SDP | R | x | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 29% K-BB | 0.319 | 17th | If we’re nitpicking, he’s been a bit inefficient early on |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | MIL | R | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24% K-BB | 0.361 | 3rd | K% up to 30% with a 3-point jump in CSW% (Called Strike + Whiff Rate) | |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | NYM | L | x | x | x | 3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18% K-BB | 0.345 | 9th | A solid 6 IP each time out so far | |
| Lucas Giolito | CHW | PHI | R | x | x | x | 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 18% K-BB | 0.344 | 8th | Looked great last time out and re-instilled confidence for many who were wavering | |
| Marcus Stroman | CHC | at | OAK | R | x | x | x | 1.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17% K-BB | 0.302 | 26th | 0 HR allowed is helping cover the BB% jump (11%) |
| Jordan Montgomery | STL | ARI | L | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 16% K-BB | 0.315 | 19th | Continuing his strong run with StL | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | at | KCR | R | x | x | x | 6.32 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 24% K-BB | 0.275 | 29th | Skills are still there, a .444 BABIP is eating him up so far |
| Sonny Gray | MIN | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | 0.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 18% K-BB | 0.320 | 16th | Might not love a start in Fenway, but not many rotations will be deep enough to sit him |
| Nick Lodolo | CIN | TBR | L | x | x | x | 2.12 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 15% K-BB | 0.376 | 3rd | Huge BABIP pushing the WHIP up, plenty to like otherwise | |
| Drey Jameson | ARI | at | STL | R | x | x | x | 1.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 15% K-BB | 0.327 | 12th | In a one-off, I understand a skip, but I took the 2-start plunge in weekly lineup leagues |
| Taj Bradley | TBR | at | CIN | R | x | x | x | Has 1 MLB start | 0.341 | 9th | Springs injury opens the door for a potentially lengthy stay |
| Chris Sale | BOS | MIN | L | x | x | x | 11.25 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 19% K-BB | 0.299 | 23rd | 3.82 SIERA says not to panic unless you think the 53% LOB and 3.8 HR/9 rates are legit | |
| Alex Wood | SFG | at | MIA | L | x | x | x | 1.17 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 8% K-BB | 0.349 | 7th | I’m a fan despite the fact that their scary defense will breed volatility |
| Peyton Battenfield | CLE | at | DET | R | x | x | Has 1 MLB start | 0.276 | 28th | I’m intrigued by the 23% SwStr in his debut which is enough to throw him here at DET | |
| Bailey Falter | PHI | at | CHW | L | x | x | 4.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 13% K-BB | 0.370 | 5th | Maybe in the zone a bit too much (11.4 H/9, 8% SwStr, 15% K) | |
| Blake Snell | SDP | ATL | L | x | x | 6.92 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, 9% K-BB | 0.395 | 1st | I’m holding, not necessarily starting | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | CLE | L | x | x | 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6% K-BB | 0.333 | 14th | Just an 8% SwStr in 107 IP with the Tigers, needs to go up to have shallow lg confidence | ||
| Edward Cabrera | MIA | SFG | R | x | x | 4.63 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, -7% K-BB | 0.375 | 2nd | Solid his last time out, but not enough to start him everywhere | ||
| Matthew Boyd | DET | CLE | L | x | 4.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 0% K-BB | 0.333 | 14th | Hasn’t been sharp in 2 GS (7 K, 7 BB), but he’s still a Team Streamer for me | |||
| José Urquidy | HOU | TOR | R | x | 2.35 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 12% K-BB | 0.349 | 5th | It’s a tough matchup, but I’m still running him out in deeper formats | |||
| Chris Bassitt | TOR | at | HOU | R | x | 7.63 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 6% K-BB | 0.313 | 20th | It’s still mostly the debut he’s trying to work off his ledger, don’t love the matchup | ||
| José Suarez | LAA | at | NYY | L | x | 10.80 ERA, 2.28 WHIP, 11% K-BB | 0.271 | 27th | Popular sleeper has struggled in 2 starts; this is still a tough start despite NYY’s low wOBA vL | ||
| Brad Keller | KCR | TEX | R | x | 2.12 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12% K-BB | 0.324 | 13th | His 4.36 SIERA & 10% SwStr say he’s not really any different right now | |||
| Hunter Gaddis | CLE | at | DET | R | x | 8.53 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10% K-BB | 0.276 | 28th | Feels like an RP to me long-term, but if there’s any start to use him | ||
| Dean Kremer | BAL | at | WSN | R | x | 9.49 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 3% K-BB | 0.262 | 30th | Hasn’t held BB% gains from ’22, but the matchup is right if you’re desperate | ||
| Ken Waldichuk | OAK | CHC | L | 10.20 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 6% K-BB | 0.331 | 15th | Better days ahead for the young arm, tough to trust anywhere for now | ||||
| Clarke Schmidt | NYY | LAA | R | 8.44 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 11% K-BB | 0.313 | 19th | Still see talent in the arm, I still don’t want to take a shot v. the Angels | ||||
| Tylor Megill | NYM | at | LAD | R | 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9% K-BB | 0.354 | 4th | A bit over his skis so far & the Dodgers could deliver some regression to the mean | |||
| Josiah Gray | WSN | BAL | R | 4.32 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 11% K-BB | 0.346 | 6th | The HRs make him scary any time you decide to take the plunge | ||||
| Colin Rea | MIL | at | SEA | R | 1.59 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 26% K-BB | 0.315 | 18th | I just don’t see any real upside | |||
| Vince Velasquez | PIT | at | COL | R | 5.40 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5% K-BB | 0.323 | 15th | No chance in Coors | |||
| José Ureña | COL | PIT | R | 9.90 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, -2% K-BB | 0.323 | 14th | No chance in Coors |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
typo alert on Sonny Gray’s note ; )
Yeah I busted out laughing while holding a sleeping baby. 😂 great stuff Paul. Thank you.
looooooooooooool whoops!!!