Starting Pitcher Chart – April 11th

April 11, 2023

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2022 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Tuesday, April 11th Starters

PITCHER	TM	OPP	THR	10	12	15+	2022 STATS	NOTE
Shohei Ohtani	LAA	WSN	R	x	x	x	2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 27% K-BB	Spotty control w/7 BB, but cancels it out w/18 Ks
Cristian Javier	HOU	at PIT	R	x	x	x	2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 24% K-BB	Double-digit K effort incoming?
Jacob deGrom	TEX	KCR	R	x	x	x	3.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 39% K-BB	Bounced back beautifully v. BAL
Gerrit Cole	NYY	at CLE	R	x	x	x	3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26% K-BB	No HR 2 GS in is nice after 1.4 HR/9 since ’19
Aaron Nola	PHI	MIA	R	x	x	x	3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26% K-BB	One bad inning has his ERA elevated right now
Shane McClanahan	TBR	BOS	L	x	x	x	2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 24% K-BB	First real challenge of the year
Alek Manoah	TOR	DET	R	x	x	x	2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 16% K-BB	Looked great in 2nd start & should stay hot w/this matchup
Pablo López	MIN	CHW	R	x	x	x	3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 16% K-BB	MIN loving their new ace w/b2b 8 K efforts
Corbin Burnes	MIL	at ARI	R	x	x	x	2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 24% K-BB	A 3rd straight dud would certainly raise some concerns
Jesús Luzardo	MIA	at PHI	L	x	x	x	3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21% K-BB	Is this the beginning of the full scale breakout season?
Lance Lynn	CHW	at MIN	R	x	x	x	3.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 21% K-BB	Battled inconsistency last yr
Dustin May	LAD	at SFG	R	x	x	x	4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12% K-BB	Only downside to blistering start is meager 8% SwStr
Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	OAK	R	x	x	x	2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 27% K-BB in MiLB	Looked as good as advertisted in debut
Hayden Wesneski	CHC	SEA	R	x	x	x	2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 20% K-BB	Not sweating the modest debut at CIN
Kyle Wright	ATL	CIN	R	x	x	x	3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 16% K-BB	Could be limited in season debut after shoulder injury
Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	MIL	R	x	x	x	3.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 14% K-BB	Held him own in 2 starts v. LAD
David Peterson	NYM	SDP	L		x	x	3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17% K-BB	14% BB rate will catch him to him if he doesn’t improve it
Garrett Whitlock	BOS	at TBR	R			x	3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 22% K-BB	Pick up where available, but needn’t start v. hottest tm in MLB
Kyle Muller	OAK	at BAL	L			x	3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB in MiLB	Decent in 2 GS v. a pair of solid squads
Matt Manning	DET	at TOR	R			x	3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11% K-BB	Would trust him so much more if he had a bat-missing pitch
Mitch Keller	PIT	HOU	R			x	3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11% K-BB	Bottom half of lineup rose up v. Contreras & could nip Keller, too
Alex Wood	SFG	LAD	L				5.10 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18% K-BB	Still avoiding LAD when I can
Chris Flexen 플렉센	SEA	at CHC	R				3.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8% K-BB	Upside usually not worth the heavy risk
Hunter Gaddis	CLE	NYY	R				4.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24% K-BB in MiLB	Great at OAK, but can’t trust him v. good tms yet
Luis Cessa	CIN	at ATL	R				4.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9% K-BB	ATL too good to risk this
Jordan Lyles	KCR	at TEX	R				4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 12% K-BB	Far too hittable to trust against anything but worst tms
Ryan Weathers	SDP	at NYM	L				6.73 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 6% K-BB in MiLB	Intriguing long-term arm, no chance at NYM
Miles Mikolas	STL	at COL	R				3.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14% K-BB	Too hittable to risk in Coors (10 ER in 1 GS there last yr)
Kyle Freeland	COL	STL	L				4.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10% K-BB	Good for a handful of home gems, but impossible to time ’em
Josiah Gray	WSN	at LAA	R				5.02 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 14% K-BB	Keeping tabs on him, but can’t start until HRs come down

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues