Sprint Speed Changes: Lots of Guys Out of Shape

by
August 19, 2020

Some previous research, including my own, has pointed to changes in Sprint Speed being a sign a player’s talent has changed. I decided to investigate changes from 2019 to 2020 to find who could be struggling and why. Many hitters are experiencing a drop and just a few are up.

In some way, the following information should be picked apart for a longer research article with some miraculous/groundbreaking/made-up claim that batters came to this season out of shape and that is why offensive production is down. I don’t care. All I want to know is who are the hitters who could be breaking out or down. Figuring out why is for the offseason. It’s now time to wins leagues.

For this study, I matched up hitters with at least 50 plate appearances in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, they needed a Sprint Speed value at Baseball Savant. In all, 244 hitters made the cut. In the original study, hitters started seeing OPS changes around a 0.5 mph change in Sprint Speed. Just a reminder that the league-wide offense is down (-23 points of OPS, 758 to .735) but not close to enough to explain some of the changes.

Sprint Speed Changes Relating to OPS Changes
Change in Sprint Speed Median OPS Change
-1.0 or more -.070
-0.9 to -0.5 -.059
-0.4 to 0.4 -.017
0.5 or more .064

All the players with similar Sprint Speeds are close to the league-wide drop (17 points vs 23 points). The production difference is quite drastic when the ends are compared as seen by a 130 point swing in OPS. The difference is the same as going from Mookie Betts (.892 Steamer projected OPS) to Cesar Hernandez (.762).

Enough of the brackground crap, here is the list of hitters starting with a few of the slowest runners.

Sprint Speed Improvers
Name 2019 PA 2019 Sprint Speed 2019 OPS 2020 PA 2020 Sprint Speed 2020 OPS Sprint Speed Diff OPS Diff
Jesse Winker 384 25.6 .830 64 26.3 1.196 0.7 .366
Jesus Aguilar 369 23.5 .714 72 24.2 .813 0.7 .100
Stephen Piscotty 393 26.0 .720 76 26.6 .784 0.6 .064
Wilson Ramos 524 22.9 .768 75 23.5 .574 0.6 -.194
Donovan Solano 228 25.9 .815 86 26.5 .975 0.6 .159
Jean Segura 618 27.5 .743 64 28.1 .770 0.6 .027
Eduardo Escobar 699 27.6 .831 93 28.2 .584 0.6 -.247
Kyle Lewis 75 27.1 .885 104 27.7 .945 0.6 .060
Matt Kemp 62 25.4 .493 56 25.9 .774 0.5 .281

That’s it for the 2020 improvers. Besides Ramos and Escobar, these hitters have improved their production. In the case of Escobar and Ramos, both have underperformed their xwOBA by at least 50 points.

And now for the players on the other end of the spectrum. Those in this long list has lost over 1 mph from their Speed Speed (I’m ignoring the -0.5 to -0.9 decliners for now to shorten the list).

Sprint Speed Decliners
Name 2019 PA 2019 Sprint Speed 2019 OPS 2020 PA 2020 Sprint Speed 2020 OPS Sprint Speed Diff OPS Diff
Giancarlo Stanton 72 27.1 .894 54 26.1 1.038 -1.0 .144
Rio Ruiz 413 25.8 .682 75 24.8 .820 -1.0 .139
Kevin Pillar 645 28.0 .719 81 27.0 .812 -1.0 .093
Nicky Lopez 402 28.5 .601 60 27.5 .704 -1.0 .103
Ben Gamel 356 28.2 .710 59 27.2 .508 -1.0 -.202
Victor Reyes 292 28.9 .767 64 27.9 .696 -1.0 -.071
Joey Gallo 297 27.7 .986 86 26.7 .889 -1.0 -.097
Brandon Crawford 560 25.7 .654 72 24.7 .639 -1.0 -.015
Yandy Diaz 347 26.5 .816 94 25.5 .727 -1.0 -.089
Max Muncy 589 27.7 .889 106 26.7 .666 -1.0 -.223
Ji-Man Choi 487 25.3 .822 75 24.3 .574 -1.0 -.248
Austin Riley 297 27.8 .750 72 26.8 .540 -1.0 -.210
Christin Stewart 416 26.9 .693 51 25.8 .549 -1.1 -.144
J.P. Crawford 396 27.4 .684 105 26.3 .652 -1.1 -.032
DJ LeMahieu 655 26.7 .893 79 25.6 .990 -1.1 .097
Adam Frazier 608 27.2 .753 81 26.1 .550 -1.1 -.203
Eloy Jimenez 504 27.7 .828 87 26.6 .806 -1.1 -.022
Christian Yelich 580 28.7 1.100 88 27.6 .778 -1.1 -.322
Travis d’Arnaud 391 26.9 .745 60 25.8 .921 -1.1 .176
Austin Barnes 242 27.2 .633 51 26.1 .738 -1.1 .105
Giovanny Urshela 476 26.3 .889 82 25.2 .820 -1.1 -.069
Kevin Newman 531 28.5 .800 69 27.4 .678 -1.1 -.122
Teoscar Hernandez 464 29.1 .778 81 28.0 .937 -1.1 .158
Albert Pujols 545 22.5 .734 67 21.4 .635 -1.1 -.100
Michael Conforto 648 27.5 .856 108 26.4 .907 -1.1 .051
Juan Soto 659 27.3 .949 56 26.1 1.438 -1.2 .489
Victor Robles 617 29.3 .745 70 28.1 .738 -1.2 -.007
Jose Ramirez 542 27.8 .806 102 26.6 .880 -1.2 .074
Eric Thames 459 26.7 .851 53 25.5 .570 -1.2 -.281
Nolan Arenado 662 25.9 .962 96 24.7 .746 -1.2 -.216
Ramon Laureano 481 28.5 .860 87 27.3 .850 -1.2 -.010
Mike Tauchman 296 27.9 .865 51 26.7 .856 -1.2 -.009
Jose Altuve 548 28.6 .903 103 27.4 .517 -1.2 -.386
Travis Shaw 270 25.6 .551 53 24.4 .779 -1.2 .228
Shin-Soo Choo 660 26.6 .826 77 25.4 .700 -1.2 -.126
C.J. Cron 499 26.1 .780 52 24.9 .894 -1.2 .114
Tommy Pham 654 28.7 .818 95 27.4 .608 -1.3 -.210
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 343 27.5 .869 75 26.2 .591 -1.3 -.278
Willson Contreras 409 27.8 .888 82 26.5 .721 -1.3 -.167
Kyle Seager 443 26.5 .789 102 25.1 .916 -1.4 .128
Aaron Judge 447 28.2 .921 68 26.8 1.101 -1.4 .180
Brandon Lowe 327 27.7 .850 93 26.3 1.168 -1.4 .318
George Springer 556 28.4 .974 78 27.0 .717 -1.4 -.257
Eddie Rosario 590 27.1 .800 92 25.7 .763 -1.4 -.037
David Dahl 413 28.1 .877 80 26.7 .481 -1.4 -.396
Todd Frazier 499 25.3 .772 80 23.9 .854 -1.4 .082
JaCoby Jones 333 28.3 .740 69 26.9 .977 -1.4 .237
Colin Moran 503 25.3 .751 73 23.9 .817 -1.4 .065
Ryan O’Hearn 370 27.2 .650 54 25.7 .695 -1.5 .045
Manuel Margot 441 29.0 .691 56 27.5 .724 -1.5 .033
Jonathan Villar 714 27.9 .792 80 26.4 .670 -1.5 -.122
Michael Brantley 637 26.4 .875 64 24.8 .821 -1.6 -.053
Joc Pederson 514 26.2 .876 73 24.6 .565 -1.6 -.311
Wil Myers 490 28.3 .739 87 26.7 .991 -1.6 .252
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 514 26.3 .772 85 24.7 .684 -1.6 -.088
Omar Narvaez 482 24.6 .813 54 23.0 .433 -1.6 -.380
Andrew McCutchen 262 28.8 .834 63 27.2 .551 -1.6 -.284
Kurt Suzuki 309 25.2 .809 50 23.4 .664 -1.8 -.146
Rafael Devers 702 27.1 .916 93 25.3 .603 -1.8 -.313
Rougned Odor 581 28.0 .721 62 26.1 .524 -1.9 -.197
Mike Zunino 289 26.3 .544 50 24.3 .450 -2.0 -.094
Gary Sanchez 446 25.5 .841 75 23.2 .638 -2.3 -.203
Austin Meadows 591 28.1 .922 55 25.8 .908 -2.3 -.014
Marwin Gonzalez 463 25.8 .736 82 23.3 .621 -2.5 -.114

Some of this season’s biggest disappointments are included. Gary Sanchez. Rafael Devers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Jose Altuve. Christian Yelich. I’m not hand picking out names. There are almost as many hitters down 200 or more OPS points (18) than all those who improved (22).

Sprint Speed Decliner Groupings
OPS Diff Count
> 300 2
201 to 300 3
101 to 200 9
0 to 100 8
-1 to -100 16
-101 to -200 8
-201 to -300 12
< -300 6

So what can fantasy owners do with this information now? For one, it can help point to possible physical injuries. For example with Devers, his walks, power, and Sprint Speed are down while his strikeouts are up. He’s just not right and his stats need to start trending in the other direction for him to get out of this funk (.603 OPS).

Sprint Speed is just one of several factors to consider when evaluating a player but for something that should be unrelated to hitting, it’s a great indicator of who may be struggling. Just one tool of many to use.

Complete Dataset
Name 2019 PA 2019 Sprint Speed 2019 OPS 2020 PA 2020 Sprint Speed 2020 OPS Sprint Speed Diff OPS Diff
Jesse Winker 384 25.6 .830 64 26.3 1.196 0.7 .366
Jesus Aguilar 369 23.5 .714 72 24.2 .813 0.7 .100
Stephen Piscotty 393 26.0 .720 76 26.6 .784 0.6 .064
Wilson Ramos 524 22.9 .768 75 23.5 .574 0.6 -.194
Donovan Solano 228 25.9 .815 86 26.5 .975 0.6 .159
Jean Segura 618 27.5 .743 64 28.1 .770 0.6 .027
Eduardo Escobar 699 27.6 .831 93 28.2 .584 0.6 -.247
Kyle Lewis 75 27.1 .885 104 27.7 .945 0.6 .060
Matt Kemp 62 25.4 .493 56 25.9 .774 0.5 .281
Shohei Ohtani 425 28.2 .848 74 28.6 .683 0.4 -.165
Kole Calhoun 632 25.9 .792 95 26.3 .874 0.4 .082
Max Kepler 596 27.7 .855 96 28.1 .827 0.4 -.027
Rowdy Tellez 409 24.8 .742 61 25.2 .715 0.4 -.027
Edwin Encarnacion 486 24.8 .875 58 25.2 .517 0.4 -.358
Brandon Belt 616 24.8 .742 57 25.1 .704 0.3 -.039
Evan Longoria 508 26.4 .762 72 26.7 .714 0.3 -.048
Alex Dickerson 190 26.7 .820 69 27.0 .655 0.3 -.165
Mauricio Dubon 111 27.3 .740 64 27.6 .619 0.3 -.121
Brian Goodwin 458 27.9 .796 74 28.1 .984 0.2 .189
David Peralta 423 26.9 .804 97 27.1 .841 0.2 .038
Daniel Murphy 478 25.7 .780 76 25.9 .757 0.2 -.023
Howie Kendrick 370 25.3 .966 54 25.5 .713 0.2 -.253
Michael Chavis 382 28.0 .766 56 28.2 .739 0.2 -.027
Robinson Cano 423 24.7 .736 61 24.8 1.105 0.1 .369
Jose Martinez 373 26.2 .751 60 26.3 .737 0.1 -.013
Domingo Santana 507 26.7 .770 59 26.8 .611 0.1 -.159
Jose Peraza 403 28.0 .631 74 28.1 .645 0.1 .014
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 222 28.0 .620 76 28.1 .695 0.1 .075
Mike Yastrzemski 411 27.5 .852 110 27.6 1.092 0.1 .240
Gleyber Torres 604 26.5 .871 85 26.6 .643 0.1 -.229
Khris Davis 533 25.6 .679 56 25.7 .497 0.1 -.182
Max Stassi 147 26.3 .378 51 26.4 .814 0.1 .436
J.D. Davis 453 26.3 .895 95 26.4 .878 0.1 -.017
Victor Caratini 279 25.0 .794 52 25.0 .713 0.0 -.081
Fernando Tatis Jr. 372 29.3 .969 112 29.3 1.094 0.0 .125
Daniel Vogelbach 558 24.1 .780 64 24.1 .476 0.0 -.303
Jose Abreu 693 26.6 .834 103 26.6 .764 0.0 -.069
David Bote 356 27.6 .785 53 27.6 .756 0.0 -.029
Jonathan Schoop 464 27.3 .777 89 27.3 .771 0.0 -.006
Maikel Franco 428 25.4 .705 90 25.4 .801 0.0 .096
Mike Trout 600 29.2 1.083 90 29.1 1.039 -0.1 -.044
Pat Valaika 86 27.2 .572 52 27.1 .563 -0.1 -.010
Ryan McMahon 539 26.4 .779 85 26.3 .677 -0.1 -.102
Nick Solak 135 28.7 .884 83 28.6 .806 -0.1 -.078
Tony Kemp 279 26.4 .671 53 26.3 .690 -0.1 .019
Rhys Hoskins 705 25.9 .819 76 25.8 .760 -0.1 -.058
Jay Bruce 333 26.7 .784 52 26.6 .921 -0.1 .137
Martin Maldonado 374 24.2 .671 67 24.1 .734 -0.1 .063
Alex Verdugo 377 27.3 .817 85 27.2 .867 -0.1 .049
Robbie Grossman 482 27.5 .682 80 27.4 1.041 -0.1 .359
Adam Eaton 656 28.3 .792 83 28.2 .652 -0.1 -.141
Leury Garcia 618 28.5 .688 63 28.4 .758 -0.1 .071
Tim Lopes 128 28.6 .720 70 28.5 .624 -0.1 -.096
Pedro Severino 341 27.0 .740 76 26.8 1.018 -0.2 .277
Hanser Alberto 550 26.8 .751 103 26.6 .830 -0.2 .079
Nico Hoerner 82 28.7 .741 52 28.5 .508 -0.2 -.232
Yoan Moncada 559 27.8 .915 99 27.6 .832 -0.2 -.083
Mookie Betts 706 27.9 .915 103 27.7 1.012 -0.2 .097
Randal Grichuk 628 28.1 .738 66 27.9 .961 -0.2 .223
Tony Wolters 411 26.1 .666 53 25.9 .456 -0.2 -.210
Mark Canha 497 27.6 .913 101 27.4 .801 -0.2 -.113
Marcell Ozuna 549 27.4 .800 105 27.1 .860 -0.3 .060
Corey Seager 541 26.9 .817 82 26.6 .984 -0.3 .167
Tommy La Stella 321 25.7 .832 85 25.4 .870 -0.3 .037
Jorge Polanco 704 28.2 .841 97 27.9 .722 -0.3 -.120
Dominic Smith 197 26.2 .881 73 25.9 1.135 -0.3 .254
Elvis Andrus 648 26.7 .707 82 26.4 .494 -0.3 -.213
Jeimer Candelario 386 27.3 .643 70 27.0 .710 -0.3 .067
Whit Merrifield 735 28.6 .811 99 28.3 .876 -0.3 .065
David Fletcher 653 27.6 .734 112 27.3 .815 -0.3 .081
Cody Bellinger 660 28.8 1.035 106 28.5 .565 -0.3 -.470
Anthony Rizzo 613 25.3 .924 95 25.0 .918 -0.3 -.006
Tim Anderson 518 28.7 .865 61 28.4 1.168 -0.3 .303
Hunter Renfroe 494 27.1 .778 71 26.8 .733 -0.3 -.045
Scott Kingery 500 29.1 .788 52 28.8 .296 -0.3 -.493
Jeff McNeil 567 27.2 .916 78 26.9 .662 -0.3 -.254
Cesar Hernandez 667 28.7 .741 100 28.4 .698 -0.3 -.043
Pete Alonso 693 26.5 .941 108 26.2 .815 -0.3 -.126
Nicholas Castellanos 664 27.9 .863 85 27.5 1.033 -0.4 .170
Nick Senzel 414 29.4 .742 53 29.0 .816 -0.4 .074
Adalberto Mondesi 443 29.9 .715 86 29.5 .545 -0.4 -.170
A.J. Pollock 342 28.0 .795 80 27.6 .892 -0.4 .097
Trevor Story 656 29.2 .917 105 28.8 .987 -0.4 .070
Enrique Hernandez 460 27.4 .715 71 27.0 .685 -0.4 -.030
Dansby Swanson 545 28.7 .748 105 28.3 .808 -0.4 .060
Ronald Acuna Jr. 715 29.4 .883 78 29.0 .887 -0.4 .004
Nick Ahmed 625 28.2 .753 88 27.8 .778 -0.4 .026
Miguel Sano 439 26.5 .923 72 26.1 .701 -0.4 -.221
Kevin Kiermaier 480 29.4 .676 73 29.0 .702 -0.4 .026
Joey Votto 608 25.0 .768 74 24.6 .795 -0.4 .027
Eugenio Suarez 662 25.9 .930 79 25.5 .525 -0.4 -.406
Jackie Bradley Jr. 567 27.6 .738 70 27.2 .581 -0.4 -.157
Danny Jansen 384 27.3 .640 62 26.9 .652 -0.4 .013
Marcus Semien 747 28.1 .892 110 27.7 .632 -0.4 -.260
Justin Upton 256 26.8 .724 67 26.4 .379 -0.4 -.345
Trent Grisham 183 29.1 .738 107 28.7 .832 -0.4 .094
Bryan Reynolds 546 28.1 .880 75 27.7 .601 -0.4 -.279
Austin Nola 267 27.1 .796 70 26.7 .797 -0.4 .001
Byron Buxton 295 30.3 .827 68 29.8 .712 -0.5 -.115
Luke Voit 510 25.8 .842 74 25.3 1.008 -0.5 .166
Christian Walker 603 27.2 .825 94 26.7 .777 -0.5 -.047
Josh Reddick 550 26.7 .728 88 26.2 .738 -0.5 .011
Brandon Nimmo 254 28.5 .783 109 28.0 .913 -0.5 .131
Bryce Harper 682 28.3 .882 75 27.8 1.186 -0.5 .304
Jurickson Profar 518 26.7 .711 86 26.2 .644 -0.5 -.067
Orlando Arcia 546 26.4 .633 51 25.9 .771 -0.5 .138
Alex Gordon 633 25.4 .741 73 24.9 .563 -0.5 -.177
Charlie Blackmon 634 26.7 .940 100 26.2 1.096 -0.5 .156
Manny Machado 661 26.4 .796 109 25.9 .736 -0.5 -.060
Andrew Benintendi 615 27.1 .774 52 26.6 .442 -0.5 -.332
Ketel Marte 628 27.9 .981 100 27.4 .776 -0.5 -.205
Garrett Hampson 327 30.1 .686 70 29.6 .834 -0.5 .148
Alex Bregman 690 27.4 1.015 105 26.9 .860 -0.5 -.155
Brian Anderson 520 27.0 .811 69 26.5 .845 -0.5 .034
Jon Berti 287 29.8 .755 58 29.3 .602 -0.5 -.153
Eric Sogard 442 26.2 .810 71 25.7 .557 -0.5 -.253
Kyle Schwarber 610 27.1 .871 83 26.6 .792 -0.5 -.078
Sandy Leon 191 23.5 .548 52 23.0 .503 -0.5 -.045
Pablo Sandoval 296 24.3 .820 61 23.8 .556 -0.5 -.264
Freddy Galvis 589 25.9 .734 63 25.3 .885 -0.6 .151
Freddie Freeman 692 26.4 .938 103 25.8 .927 -0.6 -.011
Jason Heyward 589 27.4 .772 64 26.8 .848 -0.6 .076
Trea Turner 569 30.4 .850 96 29.8 .854 -0.6 .004
Kris Bryant 634 28.2 .903 70 27.6 .594 -0.6 -.309
Chris Taylor 414 28.7 .794 86 28.1 .750 -0.6 -.044
J.D. Martinez 657 26.7 .939 97 26.1 .749 -0.6 -.191
Aaron Hicks 255 27.6 .769 75 27.0 .810 -0.6 .041
Starling Marte 586 29.0 .845 96 28.4 .954 -0.6 .109
Francisco Lindor 654 27.5 .854 101 26.9 .731 -0.6 -.123
Ian Happ 156 27.8 .898 83 27.2 1.066 -0.6 .168
Eric Hosmer 667 25.8 .735 52 25.2 .849 -0.6 .114
Yuli Gurriel 612 27.6 .884 102 27.0 .928 -0.6 .044
Willy Adames 584 28.3 .735 81 27.7 .877 -0.6 .143
Cavan Biggio 430 28.3 .793 93 27.7 .825 -0.6 .032
Corey Dickerson 279 27.6 .906 57 27.0 .588 -0.6 -.317
J.T. Realmuto 593 28.7 .820 71 28.0 1.020 -0.7 .200
Xander Bogaerts 698 28.0 .939 86 27.3 .818 -0.7 -.122
Dylan Moore 282 28.4 .691 79 27.7 .916 -0.7 .225
Matt Olson 547 26.2 .896 105 25.5 .748 -0.7 -.148
Jorge Soler 679 27.0 .922 97 26.3 .773 -0.7 -.149
Yasmani Grandal 632 24.2 .848 78 23.5 .664 -0.7 -.184
Kyle Tucker 72 27.8 .857 88 27.1 .577 -0.7 -.280
Luis Arraez 366 26.9 .838 74 26.2 .659 -0.7 -.179
Austin Romine 240 25.8 .748 55 25.1 .809 -0.7 .061
Miguel Cabrera 549 23.5 .744 87 22.8 .672 -0.7 -.071
Matt Chapman 670 28.1 .848 104 27.4 .790 -0.7 -.058
Joey Wendle 263 28.6 .633 59 27.9 .773 -0.7 .140
Franmil Reyes 548 26.6 .822 87 25.9 .870 -0.7 .047
Austin Hays 75 28.6 .947 77 27.9 .519 -0.7 -.428
Asdrubal Cabrera 514 25.4 .783 84 24.6 .919 -0.8 .135
Keston Hiura 348 26.9 .938 93 26.1 .703 -0.8 -.235
Starlin Castro 676 26.9 .736 63 26.1 .752 -0.8 .016
Brett Gardner 550 28.9 .829 58 28.1 .689 -0.8 -.140
Renato Nunez 599 27.1 .771 94 26.3 .927 -0.8 .156
Francisco Cervelli 160 25.2 .649 53 24.4 .818 -0.8 .168
Nelson Cruz 521 25.3 1.031 98 24.5 1.081 -0.8 .050
Anthony Santander 405 27.5 .773 99 26.7 1.035 -0.8 .262
Justin Smoak 500 23.5 .748 76 22.7 .589 -0.8 -.159
Mitch Garver 359 26.3 .995 58 25.5 .463 -0.8 -.532
Didi Gregorius 344 27.7 .718 70 26.9 .835 -0.8 .118
Ender Inciarte 230 26.8 .740 69 26.0 .562 -0.8 -.178
Amed Rosario 655 29.2 .755 76 28.4 .579 -0.8 -.176
Justin Turner 549 26.1 .881 104 25.3 .819 -0.8 -.062
Johan Camargo 248 25.6 .663 78 24.8 .613 -0.8 -.050
Josh Bell 613 26.7 .936 79 25.9 .568 -0.8 -.368
Avisail Garcia 530 28.8 .796 78 28.0 .668 -0.8 -.128
Carlos Santana 686 25.7 .911 99 24.9 .720 -0.8 -.192
Anthony Rendon 646 26.7 1.010 89 25.8 1.005 -0.9 -.005
Niko Goodrum 472 29.0 .743 83 28.1 .711 -0.9 -.032
Christian Vazquez 521 25.7 .798 75 24.8 .719 -0.9 -.079
Sean Murphy 60 26.0 .899 57 25.1 .773 -0.9 -.127
Bo Bichette 212 28.4 .930 64 27.5 1.063 -0.9 .133
Willie Calhoun 337 26.4 .848 58 25.5 .433 -0.9 -.414
Adam Duvall 130 28.7 .882 67 27.8 .822 -0.9 -.060
Wilmer Flores 285 25.4 .848 83 24.5 .782 -0.9 -.067
Carlos Correa 321 27.6 .926 91 26.7 .839 -0.9 -.087
Dwight Smith Jr. 392 26.1 .708 65 25.2 .683 -0.9 -.026
Jose Iglesias 530 27.1 .724 58 26.2 .977 -0.9 .253
Shed Long 168 27.6 .787 92 26.7 .512 -0.9 -.275
Javier Baez 561 28.6 .847 91 27.7 .622 -0.9 -.225
Giancarlo Stanton 72 27.1 .894 54 26.1 1.038 -1.0 .144
Rio Ruiz 413 25.8 .682 75 24.8 .820 -1.0 .139
Kevin Pillar 645 28.0 .719 81 27.0 .812 -1.0 .093
Nicky Lopez 402 28.5 .601 60 27.5 .704 -1.0 .103
Ben Gamel 356 28.2 .710 59 27.2 .508 -1.0 -.202
Victor Reyes 292 28.9 .767 64 27.9 .696 -1.0 -.071
Joey Gallo 297 27.7 .986 86 26.7 .889 -1.0 -.097
Brandon Crawford 560 25.7 .654 72 24.7 .639 -1.0 -.015
Yandy Diaz 347 26.5 .816 94 25.5 .727 -1.0 -.089
Max Muncy 589 27.7 .889 106 26.7 .666 -1.0 -.223
Ji-Man Choi 487 25.3 .822 75 24.3 .574 -1.0 -.248
Austin Riley 297 27.8 .750 72 26.8 .540 -1.0 -.210
Christin Stewart 416 26.9 .693 51 25.8 .549 -1.1 -.144
J.P. Crawford 396 27.4 .684 105 26.3 .652 -1.1 -.032
DJ LeMahieu 655 26.7 .893 79 25.6 .990 -1.1 .097
Adam Frazier 608 27.2 .753 81 26.1 .550 -1.1 -.203
Eloy Jimenez 504 27.7 .828 87 26.6 .806 -1.1 -.022
Christian Yelich 580 28.7 1.100 88 27.6 .778 -1.1 -.322
Travis d’Arnaud 391 26.9 .745 60 25.8 .921 -1.1 .176
Austin Barnes 242 27.2 .633 51 26.1 .738 -1.1 .105
Giovanny Urshela 476 26.3 .889 82 25.2 .820 -1.1 -.069
Kevin Newman 531 28.5 .800 69 27.4 .678 -1.1 -.122
Teoscar Hernandez 464 29.1 .778 81 28.0 .937 -1.1 .158
Albert Pujols 545 22.5 .734 67 21.4 .635 -1.1 -.100
Michael Conforto 648 27.5 .856 108 26.4 .907 -1.1 .051
Juan Soto 659 27.3 .949 56 26.1 1.438 -1.2 .489
Victor Robles 617 29.3 .745 70 28.1 .738 -1.2 -.007
Jose Ramirez 542 27.8 .806 102 26.6 .880 -1.2 .074
Eric Thames 459 26.7 .851 53 25.5 .570 -1.2 -.281
Nolan Arenado 662 25.9 .962 96 24.7 .746 -1.2 -.216
Ramon Laureano 481 28.5 .860 87 27.3 .850 -1.2 -.010
Mike Tauchman 296 27.9 .865 51 26.7 .856 -1.2 -.009
Jose Altuve 548 28.6 .903 103 27.4 .517 -1.2 -.386
Travis Shaw 270 25.6 .551 53 24.4 .779 -1.2 .228
Shin-Soo Choo 660 26.6 .826 77 25.4 .700 -1.2 -.126
C.J. Cron 499 26.1 .780 52 24.9 .894 -1.2 .114
Tommy Pham 654 28.7 .818 95 27.4 .608 -1.3 -.210
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 343 27.5 .869 75 26.2 .591 -1.3 -.278
Willson Contreras 409 27.8 .888 82 26.5 .721 -1.3 -.167
Kyle Seager 443 26.5 .789 102 25.1 .916 -1.4 .128
Aaron Judge 447 28.2 .921 68 26.8 1.101 -1.4 .180
Brandon Lowe 327 27.7 .850 93 26.3 1.168 -1.4 .318
George Springer 556 28.4 .974 78 27.0 .717 -1.4 -.257
Eddie Rosario 590 27.1 .800 92 25.7 .763 -1.4 -.037
David Dahl 413 28.1 .877 80 26.7 .481 -1.4 -.396
Todd Frazier 499 25.3 .772 80 23.9 .854 -1.4 .082
JaCoby Jones 333 28.3 .740 69 26.9 .977 -1.4 .237
Colin Moran 503 25.3 .751 73 23.9 .817 -1.4 .065
Ryan O’Hearn 370 27.2 .650 54 25.7 .695 -1.5 .045
Manuel Margot 441 29.0 .691 56 27.5 .724 -1.5 .033
Jonathan Villar 714 27.9 .792 80 26.4 .670 -1.5 -.122
Michael Brantley 637 26.4 .875 64 24.8 .821 -1.6 -.053
Joc Pederson 514 26.2 .876 73 24.6 .565 -1.6 -.311
Wil Myers 490 28.3 .739 87 26.7 .991 -1.6 .252
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 514 26.3 .772 85 24.7 .684 -1.6 -.088
Omar Narvaez 482 24.6 .813 54 23.0 .433 -1.6 -.380
Andrew McCutchen 262 28.8 .834 63 27.2 .551 -1.6 -.284
Kurt Suzuki 309 25.2 .809 50 23.4 .664 -1.8 -.146
Rafael Devers 702 27.1 .916 93 25.3 .603 -1.8 -.313
Rougned Odor 581 28.0 .721 62 26.1 .524 -1.9 -.197
Mike Zunino 289 26.3 .544 50 24.3 .450 -2.0 -.094
Gary Sanchez 446 25.5 .841 75 23.2 .638 -2.3 -.203
Austin Meadows 591 28.1 .922 55 25.8 .908 -2.3 -.014
Marwin Gonzalez 463 25.8 .736 82 23.3 .621 -2.5 -.114





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Sonny LMember since 2017
4 years ago

Thanks for this work. Sprint Speed as proxy for health (in players on the field playing through possible injury) is fruitful.

This list highlights Yelich, someone coming off a major knee injury, as someone maybe still not 100%. That knee might not be fully stress tested in a way that only game action can measure.

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