Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – August 19th, 2020

Paul Sporer: What’s up everyone? Hope y’all are having a good day, let’s talk some baseball!

Big Tuna: Do you like Means or are cutting him because he’s not built up?

Paul Sporer: Love the arsenal improvements, but that division is a bear so I can really only see him as a streamer in most formats

Big Tuna: Buying into Lindblom in 12 tms?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s at least a bench streamer (meaning I’m not cutting him after using him, but also not starting him regardless). The Ks are nice and I think he’ll start to settle in and could play his way into all-formats viability

Guest: 5×5 roto 10 team please pick 2: Pollock, Tucker, Verdugo, Happ, Tauchman, Carlson. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Happ & Verdugo for me. Pollock is close, but Verdugo has a playing time edge over him (though Pollock is playing quite regularly, just not every single day)

Jim: How hard should I be fading Yordan Alvarez in Dynasty? The knees really worry me..

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m not so hot on him in dynasty as DH-only even before the knee issues. I don’t want to overreact to the here & now and completely fade him, but I’m not running out to buy in dynasty, even at a discount

Bob: Matt Boyd 15 team Mixed roto. Drop him??

Paul Sporer: Certainly droppable, yes

DH: Hi Paul, thanks as always for chatting! How likely do you think it is that Pablo Lopez is for real?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big fan, he was someone I was buying heading into the season, too. Love the amplified usage of the changeup and subsequent K gains

Fever: Bieber has improved into the top tier of SPs, but can you add context to just how good he can be?

Paul Sporer: He’s quite Kluberian at this point and that’s a realistic upside

Bob: Other than your awesome S&TB podcast, can you recommend another good one?

Paul Sporer: Rates & Barrels | Statcast Podcast | Rotowire Fantasy Baseball | In This League | Prospect One | The Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Podcast | Effectively Wild | Under the Radar | Launch Angle

K: Would you start Javier at Coors tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: No

matt: Thoughts on Chad Kuhl?

Paul Sporer: Y’all, let’s avoid the “thoughts on” questions… it’s too vague and doesn’t really give me an opportunity to give any good advice

Paul Sporer: If I go equally as vague and just say “he’s good”, it doesn’t add much. Let’s aim for pointed questions with context of league and setup, too. Kuhl will be in my 10 Tidbits piece this week. I love his arsenal and now that he’s ramped up, he’s pretty viable in most formats

Scott: You ranked Mondesi at #8 in your preseason SS rankings – do you still believe?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t really believe that much coming into the season as 8 was low compared to the consensus. This is why I don’t like drafting rabbits who are bad baseball players outside of their speed. He’s been a dreadful hitter a big league hitter and Matheny has wisely moved him down in the lineup. I’m not much of a fan

Spencer Howard: Am I droppable?

Paul Sporer: Maybe hold in NL only, otherwise yah

MadBum’s Dirt Bike: So. . . .at what point does Altuve become a cut? I’m hanging in there, especially with a 2 game set in Colorado, but he is so lost I’m seriously considering cutting bait soon. In a regular season I would figure it will work itself out but it’s not at all impossible that his slump lasts for 2 months.

Paul Sporer: Think you gotta bench first before the outright cut, but I totally get the frustration. A .188 BABIP and spike in K% are hurting quite a bit so I don’t think it’s just a case of bad luck. The season may just run out before he gets back on track, but don’t cut just yet

Muncy Smile: Is it time to dump Bryan Reynolds? McCutchen heading up and Luis Garcia on waivers. Roto 10

Paul Sporer: I’m totally fine cutting. He was supposed to be an AVG asset, but he’s hitting .185 with a 31% K… byyyeeee

Vader: Hi Paul!
Seems everyone is bringing up the young starting pitching, so when do the Padres make the call for Gore?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say bc he’s been passed over for Patiño and Morejon so it seems they want him to show some things before the call up, plus he’s not on the 40-man so it requires an extra move to get him up. I wouldn’t hold in redraft mixers

Peter: Confidence level in Nick Solak, Dom Smith and Garrett Hampson continuing fantasy success? Letter grades would be perfect.

Paul Sporer: A-, A-, B

RMR: How long am I going to have to wait for Solak to get the 1 more game he needs at 2B to get double eligibility?

Paul Sporer: Could be a while with Dietrich now in the mix and Solak settling into the OF

Tom W: We’re nearly half way through the season, so if you’re languishing down the standings the only chance you have is for several guys to go on hot streaks… so is the best tactic to target struggling stars with previous track record?

Paul Sporer: It’s a viable tactic, I don’t know that it’s the only one, though. But ya you’re hoping to get 6-7 guys clicking all at once to make up for lost time. Ideally your own struggling studs turn it around plus another couple you pick up on the wire or via trade

Big Tuna: Too early to cut bait on guys like Suarez, Joc, Robles in 12 tm leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yes, No, Yes-ish. I’m torn on Robles, but if you’re getting someone else w/speed to replace him, I’m OK w/it

RMR: Winker on fire, but the batted ball mix still being GB heavy makes me think this is just another random hot streak.  Agree?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure I follow, I mean he’s only ever been a good hitter so I’m not exactly expecting him to melt down even as the BABIP comes back to earth. He’s smacking the piss out of the ball and actually getting opps against lefties. I’m in on the Winker surge

Regular Baez Streakiness?: Is there anything wrong with Javy Baez, or are we just in SSS combined with his usual streakiness?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’s mostly the latter. Hard to cut or anything. Might just be a down season as the season could run out on him like I mentioned in the Altuve question, but I think you have to stick w/Baez

Guest: Tyler Mahle back to rotation soon?

Paul Sporer: If Miley gets blitzed again

Merc’ed: Cutting mercado in al only this weekend. For real this time. Sad face.

Paul Sporer: Such a bummer, I was pretty excited about him this season but he’s been brutal & now got sent out

My Sweet Lourdes: Assuming you still believe in Lourdes right?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m holding tight with him. Maybe bench him if you have a better option, but I’m not cutting yet

Quarantino Martinez: If Yordan is done, do you want Toro at all?

Paul Sporer: Maybe in AL only, but not really

MITexan: Trent Grisham seems to have cooled off a bit. Still a fan in 10 team H2H?

Paul Sporer: Yes still a fan. He worked through a 2-for-22, but he’s already pulled out of it with an 8-for-25 including 4 multi-hit games

DMc: I just traded for Months yesterday… Talk me off the ledge.

Paul Sporer: Who?

Saul Porer: Paul, was there anything in Montas’ shellacking that’s concerning long term? Ya know, other than all the dingers and the walks. Velo dip or anything?

Paul Sporer: Really just think it’s the back tightness that led to his being scratched in the first place. Might just need a skip to get right, but as long as he’s healthy, I’m not at all worried

mm44: Grichuk or Hoskins as an add for 5×5 with Yordan out?

Paul Sporer: Grichuk is outta his mind right now and there’s some K & BB rate improvements, but I’m not sure this is a new level so you might’ve already missed his best so I might actually go for Hoskins instead

Farmer Ted: What do I do?

Paul Sporer: A lot of farming

Merc’ed: Any utility for Zimmer, DDS, naquin in al only?

Paul Sporer: Ya all three could be worth a look in AL only. I’d rank em Zimmer, The Dentist, Naquin

John H.: Thoughts on Kyle Tucker for dynasty? Patience or flip…

Paul Sporer: Staying patient in dynasty

Lorenzo: Does Ryan Pressly have a good shot to be a top 5 closer ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya, he can… if only because the closer landscape is horrendous right now

Dirtbag: What do you think will happen to Clevinger and Plesac, I have both on the bench in a 15 team roto

Paul Sporer: I can’t imagine they’re down past this weekend. At some point, Cleveland is only hurting themselves by keeping them out. They’ve made their point and they deserved to be punished, but it’s been enough now

Jeff: Think Montas is headed for an IL stint? Or is it just growing pains? All has been great until the back injury then that “start” yesterday

Paul Sporer: Could need an IL stint for the back, but I think the start yesterday was entirely back-related

Woody: Matt Manning had better stats last year than Mize. Does the Tigers bringing up Mize mean that DET considers him a better prospect or are they trying to protect Manning’s service time?

Paul Sporer: Many consider Mize a better prospect and the Tigers said that Manning still has things to work on which is why he wasn’t called up w/the others

Saul Porer: Is Gausman a guy you’re riding now?

Paul Sporer: Yes, for sure. He looks really good

Todd Gak: you hearing any Patrick Sandoval hype long term?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I was pretty keen on him heading into the year thanks to Nick Pollack turning me onto him

jazzraheem: Gregory Soto, Loaisiga, or Tyler Clippard for holds and saves ROS?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Soto

DMc: Lewis Brinson: Will he be on a 25-Man roster next season?

Paul Sporer: He probably shouldn’t be

Guest: Time to drop Altuve? Too expensive to keep for next season and am running low on $, Ottoneu puts league.

Paul Sporer: Scroll up, covered him earlier

Pride of Princeton: How would you rank O.Mercado, N.Hoerner, and I.Paredes in an AL only dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Hoerner is a Cub, so NL. Long-term I’m still going Mercado

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Hi Paul-  keeper league who do you like more long term Flaherty ($7) or Moncada ($10).  Lifetime keeper salaries increase $3 each year.  Thanks so much

Paul Sporer: Definitely Moncada, always lean hitter when it’s close b/w a hitter & pitcher

Bill: Kyle Lewis walk rate at 12.5% and K-rate at 25% – I know the babip is still high but is he actually a real good ball player now?

Paul Sporer: He’s been good throughout. He was a big time prospect who was slowed by health so I believe in him as an all-formats strong OF.

Lorenzo: Luke Weaver was very impressive yesterday against the A’s.  Safe to say now he’s a solid fantasy asset going forward?

Paul Sporer: Not off of one start after four horrendous ones. It definitely gives some confidence, but not enough to just set it & forget it

Rudy: I listened to your podcast and picked up Skubal. Ugh. Did his debut sour you at all?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m not judging anyone off one start, especially against a great offense

Guest: sorry brother, didn’t see the Altuve question higher up in the chat

Paul Sporer: No worries at all!

Trey: I have 2 of the surprisingly good Orioles right now – Severino and Alberto. Should I try to sell high or keep riding the wave?

Paul Sporer: You’re not really gonna get anything major for them via trade so I’d just ride it out

matt: Do you like Christian Walker of Jesus Aguilar more ROS in standard roto? Walker’s power hasn’t turned on yet, but the peripherals still look good. I just don’t know what to make of Aguilar

Paul Sporer: I lean Aguilar, though they’re damn close. I think Walker’s power will come around, but I’ll take the guy hitting for power and not striking out much at all

Mike Hawk: Drop Rios, Paredes or Moose?

Paul Sporer: Paredes and Rios waaaaaaaaaaayyyy before Moose

The Maestro: in a dynasty, how would you rank the following as low risk long term investments hoping they MAYBE  get a shot in the 9th? Devin Williams, Jordan Montero, and Greg Soto?

Paul Sporer: Do you mean Jordan Romano? I’d rank ’em Soto, Romano, Williams

Chucky: Cubs RHP, came into today’s game v the Cards with. 2.84 ERA. He had absolutely nothing for 3.2. Blip on the screen?

Paul Sporer: Alec Mills? I mean ya guys gotta be able to get more than one bad start. He wasn’t a sub-3.00 guy anyway, though, so I’m not terribly surprised that he hit a big pothole here v. StL. I see him as a high-3.00s/low-4.00s type of guy going forward, viable as a spot starter in virtually all formats and as a mostly set it and forget it in deeper formats

Guest: Travis Shaw or Daniel Murphy ros. Obp league

Paul Sporer: Murphy. Shaw does look more like 2017-18, though, so it’s not a complete walkover here for Murph

Koz: Traded Devers, Cruz and Cease for Castillo, Lopez and Eflin. Thoughts? Its a H2H points league

Paul Sporer: I don’t love it w/Devers on the sell low, but Castillo is a stud and I do like Lopez. Just seems like one of Devers or Cruz, plus Cease and something more Cease-like should’ve been able to wrangle those 3

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today analyzing Casey Mize’s debut as it’s happening and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!