Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3-12-2019

Here is today’s chat transcript.

3:55
Brad Johnson: We’ll kick off in a few minutes

3:57
Ryan: 6×6 H2H (w/OPS) who do you like better, Colin Moran or Renato Nunez (it’s a deep league).

3:58
Brad Johnson: Moran is massively more talented. Nunez is not a major league player.

3:58
Brad Johnson: That said, there’s a rather unhindered opportunity for Nunez whereas Moran is on the way out in Pittsburgh. Ke’Bryan Hayes seems likely to take over 3B by mid-season and Kang is still around too.

3:58
Brad Johnson: Plus some utility guys

3:59
Brad Johnson: it’s a crowded infield

3:59
Brad Johnson: And the O’s obviously like Nunez enough to play him over some kind of interesting non-prospects, so maybe there is something there I’m not seeing

3:59
Brad Johnson: I’d still take Moran

3:59
Kluwe: 12 team H2H league with two Util spots and six bench spots total.   Given the lack of depth at 1B, do you try to draft two top 1B guys?  For injury insurance, cornering the market, etc.?

4:00
Brad Johnson: I think you’ll find you won’t have that opportunity

4:00
Brad Johnson: and if you force the issue, you’ve possibly ruined your draft

4:00
Brad Johnson: I’m also finding that 1B is NOT drafting shallow despite cries to the contrary

4:01
Brad Johnson: The only shallow positions are SP (ace-level), RP (predictable CL), and C

4:01
Rocco: Who will have a better season:  Thor, Taillon, or Carrasco?

4:01
Brad Johnson: I kind of like Taillon most. I’m sure I’m succumbing to some sort of bias. Not a big Thor fan for fantasy purposes. Needs a breakout to be as good as people already think he is

4:02
AD: If you’ve got 7th pick in a standard 12 team 5×5 and the clear top 6 (Trout, Mookie, Ramirez, JD, Arenado, Scherzer) are off the board, who are you going with? Yelich, Turner, Lindor, Sale, other?

4:02
Brad Johnson: For me, it’s Turner. I also don’t believe there to be a clear top 6

4:02
Brad Johnson: It’s Trout, Mookie, 20 guys

4:03
Brad Johnson: Which is why I aim my KDS at 1, 2, 8, 7, 9, etc.

4:03
Brad Johnson: I like the middle of the rounds this year if I’m missing Trout

4:03
Brad Johnson: (that was for 15-team)

4:04
Larry Hutz: How do you evaluate draft picks for player trades? For instance, in a roto keeper league I have an Eloy Jimenez that can be kept for a 21st round pick that will increase by 3 rounds per year while kept. If a rebuilding team wanted to snatch him, what kind of draft compensation should I aim for? Any resources or let market dictate?

4:04
Brad Johnson: Unfortunately, it’s all so individual. The best way to approach it is to try your best to guesstimate the player you’ll pick.

4:05
Brad Johnson: Then decide if you would trade for that player or similar

4:05
Brad Johnson: Depending on your league depth, Eloy should be quite the haul

4:05
Ryan: Does the Kimbrel situation impact your valuation of Alvarado, Vizcaino, Robertson, or Doolittle at all, given the rumors that the Rays, Braves, Phillies, or Nationals might sign him?

4:06
Brad Johnson: No. I haven’t seen rumors of Rays being involved. The Phillies and Nats aren’t in at this time. Rumor says the Braves are out too.

4:06
Craig Kimbrel: Hey Philly, I know you don’t neeeed me, but how about a nice fat check for 1 year? Give me some stupid money!!

4:07
Brad Johnson: The problem with this is he’d come with an additional $8MM tax in the form of pushing Neshek, Nicasio, or Hunter off the roster. There already isn’t room for all three, although Hunter will start on the IL

4:07
Brad Johnson: Plus they’ll lose another draft pick which isn’t the worst thing…

4:08
Brad Johnson: But the upgrade of Kimbrel over their worst reliever really isn’t large enough to justify like $25MM and $8MM foregone and a lost pick.

4:08
Brad Johnson: Keuchel makes a lot more sense for them, and they’re reportedly trying to find a match similar to the Arrieta deal.

4:09
Ryan: How many ABs for Willie Calhoun this year? Is he an every day player?

4:09
Brad Johnson: Not sure, but he’s not making the OD roster as far as I can tell

4:09
Brad Johnson: Choo is the DH

4:09
Brad Johnson: Calhoun doesn’t have a position or all that much bat tbh

4:10
Brad Johnson: He’s a really weird prospect.

4:11
Brad Johnson: To be clear, he’s somewhere in the 100-130 wRC+ range, but that doesn’t play as a DH-only

4:11
Brad Johnson: I also don’t think people realize he’s 5’8”

4:11
Rocco: Am I crazy to draft JT Realmuto in Round 4-5?  I am in an OPS league (instead of BA) and the way I see it there’s a big drop-off in catcher after the first 3-4, which creates a big advantage?

4:12
Brad Johnson: No, that’s around where he’s going

4:12
Brad Johnson: I don’t know that prioritizing catcher is a winning strategy, but if that’s the play you’re trying to make Realmuto is one of just a few fits

4:12
Matt Canik: I know spring training doesn’t mean much, but the blue jays have been MASHING! Which non-Vlad/non-Bichette prospect in that system most excites you for both this season and long-term?

4:13
Brad Johnson: Probably Jansen. There’s potential for a long term top 5 C

4:13
Hanser in the form of a Question: Am trying to get a handle on At Bats for some prospects. Do you have a PT take on Cedric Mullins (who might be mediocre), Kyle Tucker (who might be blocked), and Brandon Lowe (who might be both)? Thanks!

4:13
Brad Johnson: Mullins SHOULD be nearly everyday initially

4:13
Brad Johnson: They should be taking the next 2 years to evaluate him. He could bounce to Triple-A if he struggles

4:14
Brad Johnson: Tucker is very blocked, but I think he’ll play once there’s an injury

4:14
Brad Johnson: As much as I love Tony Kemp, I don’t think he can block Tucker

4:14
Brad Johnson: Later in the year, Tucker could force Reddick out of the lineup. Or White if he doesn’t continue to slug.

4:14
Brad Johnson: Or White could go to 1B for Gurriel

4:15
Brad Johnson: There are a lot of ways in the door for Tucker

4:15
Brad Johnson: I… don’t really get the Lowe love

4:15
Brad Johnson: Isn’t Joey Wendle better? And don’t they have 35 other comparable 2b?

4:15
Brad Johnson: That’s barely hyperbole

4:15
Nick: Luzardo or Paddack? This year? And next 3-4 seasons?

4:16
Brad Johnson: I kind of like Paddack a little more, but I’ve gotten a lot of looks at him compared to Luzardo

4:16
Brad Johnson: So that might just be me liking the guy I’ve seen

4:16
Grima: Favourite holds targets?

4:16
Brad Johnson: I had an article up a few weeks ago on East relievers. Planning Central for this week and West for next.

4:17
Brad Johnson: Here’s the first one – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/bullpen-sleepers-of-the-east/

4:17
g4baseball: With the Adam Jones signing should we start the “Free Wilmer” campaign again?

4:17
Brad Johnson: I don’t know how that all shakes out

4:17
Brad Johnson: I’ll believe Adam Jones is their CF when he’s still in the everyday lineup on April 15

4:17
Brad Johnson: I just don’t buy it

4:18
Don: Bigger fantasy production for the Dodgers this year: Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin?

4:19
Brad Johnson: That’s a ludicrously deep league ask. Neither was on my radar for Tout Draft and Hold which took 750 players.

4:19
Brad Johnson: They’re what? SP 10 and 11 in that system? Later?

4:21
Brad Johnson: Yea, maybe I’m missing a guy or two… Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Hill, Maeda, Stripling, Urias, Santana, Stewart, Ferguson all on the 40-man

4:21
Ryan: Is Teoscar going to be in a LF platoon, or is he the everyday guy?

4:21
Brad Johnson: Reports say he’s on the weak side of the platoon

4:21
Pete: Fir a saved only Roto league, are the Rays really not going to make Alvarado their undisputed closer?

4:22
Brad Johnson: Pretty sure they’re going to go with lefty and righty stoppers

4:22
Brad Johnson: So Diego Castillo could end up with more SVs

4:22
JC at the Bat: Luis Castillo or German Marquez as my last keeper?  10 team NL only.

4:22
Brad Johnson: Good spot to be in. While I’d usually say Marquez is risky because of his home park, it’s not like GABP is a friendly venue

4:23
Brad Johnson: I think Marquez is a little more talented

4:23
Puckett : Is Trevor May the closer for the Twins from the first save opport7nity. I keep seeing mixed projections where Parker starts as the closer.

4:23
Brad Johnson: We don’t know yet

4:23
Brad Johnson: It’s an open battle.

4:23
Brad Johnson: May was more talented last year

4:24
Brad Johnson: but that doesn’t automatically mean he’s better now

4:24
Also Paul: to add to Nick’s question . . . Paddack over Luzardo  over Urias* for this year and going forward too?

4:24
Brad Johnson: Yes for now. Reevaluate in a year.

4:24
Brad Johnson: Wide range of mostly very positive outcomes for that trio

4:24
Alex: Domingo Santana thoughts?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Love him this year. Streaky hitter with a team that can afford to live with the downs.

4:25
Brad Johnson: That’s the main reason he vanished from the Brewers lineup.

4:25
Brad Johnson: Nothing noticeably changed

4:25
Joel: Better value at their ADP? Jorge Polanco (219) or Semien (238)?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Technically Semien

4:26
Brad Johnson: I’d probably pick Polanco though for upside

4:26
Hanser in the form of a Question: You mention Choo as DH. Does that mean he’ll stay (relatively) healthy this year? Was a delight for my OBP last season…

4:26
Brad Johnson: Hopefully. It should be a lot easier than if he’s playing the field

4:26
Brad Johnson: But they have Mazara and Gallo in the corners

4:27
Smokey Joe: Saw you had Presley as one of your bold predictions. What would it take for him to becime closer? A total Osuna implosion or simply outpitcchung Osuna?

4:27
Brad Johnson: I don’t think an implosion is necessary. Giles lost his job several times in Houston just by slumping a little.

4:27
Brad Johnson: The thing is, he also recovered the job.

4:28
Brad Johnson: Though Will Harris, Hector Rondon, and others who stepped in weren’t anything like Pressly

4:28
Brad Johnson: So you need an Osuna slump and Pressly pitching at least somewhere between where he was with the Twins (good) and with the Astros (3rd best RP in league).

4:28
PB: Martin Perez worth a flier?

4:29
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:29
Brad Johnson: Any +3 mph guy is flier worthy

4:29
Brad Johnson: 12 team and deeper at least

4:29
Brad Johnson: Can probably skip in 10-team

4:29
MP: Thoughts on Loaisiga in a 4×4 Ottoneu classic league? Worth a $1-3 bid?

4:29
Brad Johnson: Maybe $1-$2. Don’t spend the third dollar.

4:30
Brad Johnson: Highly likely to be a non-factor this year

4:30
Brad Johnson: but there’s a chance he’ll be interesting

4:30
Brad Johnson: and tbf, I’m quite sure you can find a better play

4:30
Chris: A couple “final player” questions as I’m rounding things out in a 16 team H2H dynasty. 1. Laureano or Franmil? I like Franmil more but Mondesi is my only real SB threat now. 2. Are we giving up on Fulmer with his velocity dip? I have him as one of my last pitchers now, and was debating adding McHugh or Strahm for upside with a last roster spot, but might give up on Fulmer and go for both (I have some specs in waiting that I hope will contribute later in the year).

4:30
Brad Johnson: Laureano for me. He’ll 100% play all the time because of his defense

4:31
Brad Johnson: Franmil is mixed in a roster crunch and is kind of a DH

4:31
Brad Johnson: I’m out on Fulmer. Grab both.

4:31
David: I know they are Spring stats, but Lois Castillo is not looking good. Should I be worried?

4:31
Brad Johnson: Only insofar as you could have already worried about him being a slow starter

4:32
Brad Johnson: We’ve only seen him shove in the second half (small sample)

4:32
Brad Johnson: I’m not especially concerned, but it helps that I own zero shares

4:32
Joel: Astudillo’s PA projection?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Didn’t you see my bold predictions? 500 PA!

4:33
Brad Johnson: More seriously, probably like 130?

4:33
Brad Johnson: As hard as I pray to the baseball gods for him to get 750 PA, he has a constantly uphill battle for playing time.

4:33
I can’t stop coughing: Am I paying too much for Eloy with Mize, McCullers, and Eaton?

4:33
Brad Johnson: No

4:34
Brad Johnson: I do love Eaton for right now

4:34
Brad Johnson: I assume we’re talking dynasty though

4:34
Randy: Someone ghosted our Ottoneu draft the other day, then declined to renew their team. Now we’re stuck with a dead team. This isn’t a question. I’m just upset.

4:35
Brad Johnson: Maybe just lock the roster and play an 11-team league this year rather than trying to get a replacement

4:35
Brad Johnson: The issue with replacement owners is they almost always say “oh shit, I can’t contend, hey best team, give me some crap for all my best players”

4:36
Brad Johnson: and then it ruins everybody’s fun

4:36
Anonymous: Daily moves 5×5 head-to-head is broken right? Because there’s no IP limit? Why not make your entire bench SP’s and play the best matchups each week?

4:36
Brad Johnson: Actually no. If you’re streaming SP, you’re sacrificing ERA and WHIP every week

4:37
Brad Johnson: Or you’ve paid 60% of your budget for pitchers which is generally frowned upon

4:37
Brad Johnson: (although that’s exactly what I usually do)

4:37
B: Brad, could you speak a bit to how to interpret negative values with the auction calculator? Many thanks!!

4:37
Brad Johnson: It just means they’re sub-replacement level

4:37
Brad Johnson: If a guy you think is good is sub-rep, check his PA projection

4:37
Brad Johnson: The calc can be a little harsh about part-time guys even though they can be very useful

4:38
Brad Johnson: We talk about it every year, but we can’t figure out how to teach the calc to assume you know how to manage a bench

4:38
Brad Johnson: As built, the calc considers every bench player to be a $1 guy.

4:38
Brad Johnson: But that’s not usually how we build teams

4:39
Hyde: How would you rank Eaton, Winker, Laureano, Domingo Santana? (our league has AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, R, SB and TB)

4:39
Brad Johnson: Off the top of my head… Santana is definitely last

4:39
Brad Johnson: Eaton in an AVG/OBP could be a monster

4:39
Brad Johnson: Most hitters do one or the other – he does both

4:39
Brad Johnson: Winker is a OBP monster with a solid AVG

4:40
Brad Johnson: Laureano is probably third best even though I really love him

4:40
Brad Johnson: Winker’s PT could be compromised in the OF so I’ll say Eaton first

4:40
Brad Johnson: You might get away with picking him after Winker though.

4:40
Jason: Am I crazy to project JBJ at 80-20-70-15-.255? He comes out as my 96th best player which tells me I’m crazy

4:40
Brad Johnson: Seems a tad aggressive

4:40
Brad Johnson: Like a 65-70th percentile outcome

4:41
Bob: Better hurt guy stash: C Mart or Morrow?

4:41
Brad Johnson: Gimme Morrow

4:41
Sam: What’s the highest you would draft Joey Votto?

4:41
Brad Johnson: Depends on format. Kept him for over $50 in ottoneu FGpts

4:41
Brad Johnson: Where his bust season was still hugely productive

4:41
Brad Johnson: Normal $260 12-mixed draft… maybe mid-$20s

4:42
weezy: Merrill Kelly: in play for relatively deep 12-teamers?

4:42
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:42
Brad Johnson: Should be owned until we learn more

4:42
Anonymous: For all the questions, gripes and suggestions about the Auction Calculator, just wanted to mention it is amazing and I’d be lost without it. Thank you!

4:43
Brad Johnson: Yea for sure. Appelman was asking us if we use other tools after we listed like 15 things we wanted addressed. We all looked at each other and saw, “nah, this is the best thing out there”

4:44
Brad Johnson: The strength is the flexibility. It’s relatively easy to build something that’s better for a very specific format. But covering almost every iteration of fantasy with one calc is really impressive

4:44
Don Von Handburger: Do you like Berrios more than Severino this year?

4:44
Brad Johnson: I do not, even with the injury

4:44
Neilage: Please ranked the following 1-5, most 2019 saves:
Andrew Miller
Seranthony Dominguez
Jordan Hicks
Archie Bradley
David Robertson

4:45
Brad Johnson: Sure, ask me an easy question

4:46
Brad Johnson: So I think the Phillies bullpen will be split something like Robertson 20, Seranthony 12, Neris 8, with the other 5-10 spread around to others

4:46
Brad Johnson: I don’t have a good read on the Cardinals bullpen. For now, call that a 40/40 split with 20% going to others.

4:47
Brad Johnson: Bradley’s insanely volatile too. Seems like he should be the guy over Hirano (Holland is out reportedly)

4:47
Brad Johnson: But they might just use both as stoppers

4:48
Brad Johnson: I’ll say Bradley gets the most saves of the 5

4:48
Brad Johnson: But there’s no a lot of science in that guess

4:48
George Bell’s Purple Ass: What’s the earliest in a 12 team league (standard roto scoring) you would take a closer?

4:48
Brad Johnson: I think the earliest I’ve ever done it is Jansen/Kimbrel on a 3/4 turn. Few years back that was.

4:49
Brad Johnson: This year I find myself too late to pick Diaz and the rest of the good CL are clumped around the 6-9th region (often all in the same round)

4:50
Brad Johnson: I do think it’s a good idea to secure one of those top 11 or so guys

4:50
Brad Johnson: But you don’t need multiple since so many good non-CL are going to end up with saves

4:50
Gogo Lux: Sale’s IP in 2019 – over/under 180?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Pretty close to the push line for me

4:50
Brad Johnson: I’ll say 190

4:51
David: I am planning on Vlad Jr. as my starting 3B for the year. I get to keep him as a minor leaguer.  Would you target someone in your draft who is starter level to hold his place or wait and use a bench fill in?

4:51
Brad Johnson: 3B is really deep so I’d go cheap but good

4:51
Brad Johnson: Eduardo Escobar for example

4:51
Graham: Is there a target number of auction dollars you would want to hold onto for the last few players. Like ideally keep $25 for the final 7 players on your team?

4:51
Brad Johnson: Well..

4:52
Brad Johnson: It depends on the format. For super deep or an only format, perhaps something like that

4:52
Brad Johnson: though I don’t have a set number

4:52
Brad Johnson: For nearly all formats, I would prefer to have $10 for my last 10 players

4:52
I can’t stop coughing: Yandy Diaz, Dom Smith, Or Vogelbach as a speculation stash? Who’s gets most playing time ? Who would you pick up?

4:52
Brad Johnson: I bet Yandy has the most PA, but Dom and Vogey probably play more in April

4:52
Brad Johnson: Or at least the first 2 weeks

4:53
Brad Johnson: Today my answer is Smith

4:53
Brad Johnson: Ask again in 2 weeks and I’ll likely have a different take

4:53
JT: Forever dynasty in 6×6 roto: Brujan or Jazz?

4:53
Brad Johnson: EZ Brujan

4:53
Brad Johnson: So hype-tastic right now

4:53
Brad Johnson: And that matters from a value perspective

4:53
joe: caleb smith or tyler anderson?

4:54
Brad Johnson: Anderson has a better mean/median but Smith would still be my pick

4:54
Brad Johnson: Breakout potential, non-lethal home park

4:54
Brad Johnson: Tough division though and few Ws

4:54
Mike: Why are you never on Sleeper and the Bust?

4:55
Brad Johnson: Paul occasionally asks if I want to be on sometime in the future, I say yes, and then there’s no follow up

4:55
Brad Johnson: I don’t know when they record, but I don’t work at night which leaves me out of the podcast circuit for the most part

4:56
B: That’s what I thought in regards to negative values. That said, some values are REALLY hard on guys that I wouldn’t have thought have a below replacement level cost and/or guys are way lower than I’d have thought (E.g. Muncy at $1). I’ve been playing with the calculator for years so I think I am setting it up correctly to reflect my league setup. Does this mean I am overvaluing Muncy if I see him as more than $1 over replacement value?

4:56
Brad Johnson: No, that’s a situation where he’s getting nuked for 1. projection systems including 2 pre-breakout years and 2. Not having a 650 PA projection

4:57
Brad Johnson: It’s necessary to make some manual adjustments. Can’t be avoided.

4:57
JT: When you approach a dynasty draft, what’s your thought process when you evaluate drafting a pitcher who’s 3 years away (i.e. Gore, Greene)… does TINSTAAPP just run through your head?

4:58
Brad Johnson: I did a 25-team start up in December. 45 rounds. My only pitchers were late picks of Daniel Norris and Jordan Montgomery. Also later grabbed Tyler Phillips off the waiver wire.

4:59
Brad Johnson: In general, I try to get a future Gore or Greene via waivers. My dynasty pitching staffs tend to skew heavily to veterans (it works well enough).

4:59
Brad Johnson: So… to answer your question, I don’t draft pitchers.

5:00
Brad Johnson: In this case, I teamed up with Tom Trudeau to pilot his full-in prospect approach

5:00
Brad Johnson: I usually would eventually shift to Anibal/Cahill type SP in the mid-late rounds

5:00
Lipton: You know what gets my goat? When a guy offering me a trade has obviously not even considered my needs. I have Altuve and Whit in a standard stat, limited keeper league and someone offered me his DJ LeMahieu for my Brantley.

5:00
Franchy: How many AB’s do you think I’ll see this year?

5:01
Brad Johnson: 250-450

5:01
Gingers Unite: Over/under on PA for Frazier this year in NY?  350?

5:01
Brad Johnson: Hard under

5:01
Brad Johnson: Poor guy is squashed

5:01
Brad Johnson: Sad he wasn’t in the Paxton deal

5:01
Brad Johnson: Though at least Seattle later freed Domingo

5:01
Kevin: Any tips in for a rebuild in a deep dynasty league? Everyone seems hesitant to part with young talent and I am currently an old team that is at best middle of the pack.

5:02
Brad Johnson: It’s a tough position to find yourself in. I tend to just keep plugging away – both at contending and trying to find that guy who will trade a young stud for 3 of my older guys

5:02
weezy: on a scale from 1-10, 10 being getting every share, where are you on Buxton?

5:02
Brad Johnson: Well… I have no shares

5:03
Brad Johnson: I’d love to have some, he’s just never there

5:03
Brad Johnson: I’ll say a 4

5:03
Jad Brohnson: the world is mine!

5:03
Neilage: 4X4, McNeil or Moran?

5:03
Brad Johnson: McNeil.

5:03
Brad Johnson: Cautiously…

5:03
Slamdunks Flying: With regular PA, Mitch Garver is a top ___ catcher this year?

5:03
Brad Johnson: Like how regular?

5:03
Brad Johnson: I doubt he can squeeze more than 350-400

5:04
Brad Johnson: And that’s a stretch

5:04
Brad Johnson: So… like top 20-25?

5:04
NotBurtReynolds: Is there a realistic(non-injury) chance that Yordan Alvarez hits the majors before September, now that they’ve been trying him at OF? How would you value him in dynasty, given all the people blocking him now will still be under contract for the Astros in 2020?

5:05
Brad Johnson: Don’t worry about the blockers, if he’s talented enough to play, he’ll worm his way into 1B

5:05
Brad Johnson: Playing OF is only a ploy to increase his trade value as far as I’m concerned

5:05
Brad Johnson: 1B is the easiest position for a prospect to claim in HOU

5:06
Neilage: I wanted to thank you for avoiding all food related questions, unlike your FG colleagues’ live chats.

5:06
Brad Johnson: tbf, nobody has asked me any food related questions

5:06
Brad Johnson: I’ll get the rare beer question, but I don’t have anything insightful to say about it

5:06
Brad Johnson: I like good beer

5:07
joe: $15 for Maeda in NL only?

5:07
Brad Johnson: Seems reasonable

5:07
Ringer: Any bold predictions you wanted to include but just didn’t make the cut?

5:07
Brad Johnson: Haha, hundreds. It wasn’t really a keep/cut process though

5:07
Brad Johnson: I just listed the first 10 I thought of

5:07
Joe the Worker: My lunch ended a while back. Shouldn’t I be working instead of asking you this question?

5:07
Brad Johnson: I am working!

5:08
Brad Johnson: So you are too?

5:08
Ringer: What’s Scott Kingery’s true fantasy worth? Closer to last year’s hype or this year’s post-hype?

5:08
Brad Johnson: I love this “true fantasy worth” phrase

5:08
Brad Johnson: comes down the aisle once and awhile

5:08
Brad Johnson: He has a wide range of outcomes

5:08
Brad Johnson: He should be very cheap right now

5:09
Brad Johnson: Because the Phillies have every reason to just leave him in a super utility role forever

5:09
Brad Johnson: And only his bat can help him to escape

5:09
Andrew Triggskaedekaphobia: My first auction after 15 years of fantasy baseball. I’m going with Stars and Scrubs, and am curious, what do you think the hardest tier of players will be to stay away from when they are a good value: the $10-15 or $5-10?

5:09
Brad Johnson: It’s definitely the $3-8 range or so

5:10
Brad Johnson: Because this year they’re 1. still really good players 2. they actually go for that price

5:10
Brad Johnson: The $10-$15 guys cost $20 more often than not

5:11
billsaints: 5*5 Al only std 12 team league (23 man). Keep ryan O’Hearn for $5?

5:11
Brad Johnson: I have reservations about O’Hearn but that might be a reasonable gamble

5:11
I can’t stop coughing: Can we get a like button for questions and comments submitted here?

5:12
Brad Johnson: Talk to JotCast, that’s outside of my influence

5:12
Archie Bradley: You said your Bold Predictions were too bold last year. What’s a hot take you talked yourself out of publishing this time around?

5:13
Brad Johnson: Not exactly the same, but I told myself to avoid so-and-so will lead league in X

5:13
Jerry B: If I drafted only SFG players, would my fantasy team in a standard 5×5 head to head  do better or worse than the real life Giants this season?

5:13
Brad Johnson: Better

5:13
Brad Johnson: Actually worse

5:13
Brad Johnson: I forgot you’ll never earn wins and saves

5:14
Brad Johnson: I like their pitching staff though

5:14
Brad Johnson: especially the bullpen

5:14
I can’t stop coughing: Which hitters have you consistently drafted in your leagues this year? Most common players you get?

5:14
Brad Johnson: lemme look around

5:15
Brad Johnson: Mike Trout is my most owned hitter. That feels nice

5:15
Brad Johnson: All keeper shares

5:15
Brad Johnson: I try to diversify my teams

5:15
Brad Johnson: The exception is with deeper pitchers. Anibal Sanchez is on nearly all my teams

5:15
Brad Johnson: Lot of Cahills

5:15
Brad Johnson: Lot of Brad Kellers

5:16
Ancient Mariner: Any updates on the Smith Melancon closer battle?

5:16
Brad Johnson: Smith appears to have it

5:16
Brad Johnson: I watched Melancon serve up solo oppo bombs to Chapman and Semien

5:16
Brad Johnson: Working 90-91

5:16
Brad Johnson: In terms of talent, might be their 7th best RP

5:16
Brad Johnson: Upgrading status on Beede and Black

5:17
I can’t stop coughing: Will we ever see Tim Tebow on a major league roster?

5:17
Brad Johnson: Sadly, probably yes

5:17
Brad Johnson: Ok, time to start wrapping up

5:17
Dave: Where do you rank Hader among RP’s in SV+H leagues?

5:17
Brad Johnson: Somewhere in the 8-15 range

5:17
Brad Johnson: Too late to get him

5:18
JD: when do you think luzardo is going to be up? how is his FGpts profile? I’ve got a $2 share and not sure if I should shop or hold

5:18
Brad Johnson: Perhaps shop with the intent to hold?

5:18
Brad Johnson: There’s a lot of factors to how much he pitches this year

5:18
Brad Johnson: but probably about 80 IP

5:18
AJ: What should we expect from Luis Urias in a keeper league?  Better real life than fantasy player?  We use ave, batter k, hr,rbi,Sb.

5:18
Brad Johnson: Urias owners need to prepare to be patient

5:19
Brad Johnson: Reminds me of Ketel Marte although a MLB guy told me Marte is a much better hitter when I said that to him

5:19
Brad Johnson: louder contact

5:20
Larry : Better year.  Robles or Eloy?

5:20
Brad Johnson: gimme Robles

5:20
Joe: Paddock or Kyle Wright in a keeper?

5:20
Brad Johnson: Paddock still, but the Wright hype is catching up

5:21
DJ Tanner: Do you think Alex Reyes has a chance to get a decent amount of holds in the bullpen? Have him in a dynasty league and looking for optimism for something he can contribute at immediately.

5:21
Brad Johnson: Yea, should be high leverage

5:21
Brad Johnson: If they’re not worried about making him a SP in the future, he could even walk away as the CL

5:21
Brad Johnson: In the earlier question about timeshare CL, the 20% I dedicated to not Miller/Hicks was mostly Reyes

5:22
Pat: Danny Jansen a top 10 C?

5:22
Brad Johnson: I hope so, by projection, maybe not in 2019

5:22
Brad Johnson: eventually

5:22
Kennish needs to know: Better year…Keuchel or Hendricks?

5:22
Brad Johnson: I’ll take Keuchel

5:22
Anonymous: Is NFBC ADP data generally good, or pretty flawed? (Yahoo’s default ADP is awful)

5:22
Brad Johnson: I mean, that’s not really how ADP should be approached

5:23
Brad Johnson: ADP is just a straight report of what has happened across all formats on that site

5:23
Brad Johnson: The nice thing about NFBC ADP is that 1. the format is standardized 2. the participants are better than the average fantasy player 3. it’s available super early in the offseason

5:24
Brad Johnson: The downside is that 15-team 5×5 draft and hold doesn’t reflect a typical fantasy league after the first couple hundred picks

5:24
Zach Wheeler: Am I a top 15 pitcher this year?

5:24
Brad Johnson: Maybe

5:24
Brad Johnson: I won’t say no

5:24
Brad Johnson: Or yes

5:24
Josh: What is the hitting equivalent of Robbie Ray in a dynasty league?

5:24
Brad Johnson: Shaw?

5:25
Brad Johnson: That might be too good

5:25
Crazy Sammi Meatballs Namblaman: Puig is going to be an absolute monster in his new bandbox.  Think he’s worthy of $14 given a $150 budget?

5:25
Brad Johnson: 1/10th of budget seems high

5:25
Brad Johnson: What’s Trout go for?

5:26
AJ: Please rank Keller, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Touki and Wright in a keeper league. Thanks!

5:26
Brad Johnson: I assume that’s Mitch Keller?

5:26
Brad Johnson: Wright, Keller, don’t worry about them as keepers

5:26
Brad Johnson: Touki is probably a nasty reliever btw

5:27
stonecold: I am at $399 and 40 filled spots in ottoneu FGPts. Would it be wise and prudent to try to make a 2 players with more than $1 salaries for 1 guy deal where I clear some cap and a roster spot? Even if it means giving up some uncertain upside

5:27
Brad Johnson: Nah, look for broken players on larger contracts. Like CMart

5:27
Brad Johnson: Trade a cheap guy for CMart and a full loan

5:27
Brad Johnson: Cut CMart and recoup the full contract

5:27
Jung Ho Kang Bang: I am thinking of cutting one of these players off the back end of my rotation 10 team H2H where I usually carry 10 SP.  Stripling, Nelson, Skaggs.

5:28
Brad Johnson: I’d hang onto Strip. No need to cling to Nelson/Skaggs in 10 team

5:28
stonecold: Holy crap thats genius

5:28
Brad Johnson: And on that note, I’ll take a bow

5:28
Brad Johnson: As always, thanks for playing folks!

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3-12-2019 by Brad Johnson!

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Joseph
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Joseph

Verlander>Kluber>DeGrom…CBS points league this year. Correct?