Shortstop ADP Market Report: 2/23/21
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
None
Top 200 Players Rising
Marcus Semien (+20.59)- Semien is clearly moving up in drafts after signing in Toronto. He had a down season in 2020, but I think he would have been better in a full season. He is a season removed from a 33/10 with .285 average and will be batting second in a better park with a stacked lineup.
Andres Gimenez (+29.9)- Gimenez’s value has been on the rise since being traded to Cleveland, but there has been a lot of talk that he could start the year in the Minors. I don’t buy that personally. I love Gimenez’s ability to be a 10/25 kind of player with eligibility at three different positions. If he drops in a draft, I will be there to grab him and while his ADP has risen over the last month, it has dropped over the last two weeks.
Top 200 Players Falling
Jonathan Villar (-23.31)- See the article in this series on second basemen.
Ha-Seong Kim (-28.67)- Kim a month after a huge jump in ADP which was directly tied to his signing in San Diego, the resigning of Jurickson Profar has his price tumbling. He has shown power and speed in the KBO, hitting 30 home runs and stealing 23 bases, with a .306/.397/523 triple slash in 138 games in 2020. I feel pretty confident that the speed and hit tool will carry over after watching him during the MLB shut down last spring. However, I do have some concerns that the power won’t translate as well and it now seems like he doesn’t have a full path to playing time. The upside is huge, but there is risk considering how stacked this Padres team has become.
Top 300 Players Rising
Amed Rosario (+94.41)- Rosario’s huge rise in ADP has everything to do with his trade out of New York and hopefully a larger role in Cleveland. Right now he is projected to be on the short side of the platoon, but if the Indians do send down Gimenez or trade Rosario again as has been rumored, he could have a huge rebound season. He is only a year removed from being a a 15/19 season and reportedly retooled his swing early in the offseason. He is a worthy gamble, especially as a Giminez handcuff.
Top 300 Players Falling
Jake Cronenworth (-55.22)- See the article in this series on second basemen.
Willi Castro (-22.33)- The market on Castro is beginning to crash after emerging as a popular sleeper among fantasy players early in draft season. He had a surprising power burst in 2020 considering that he was expected to be more of a hit tool and speed kind of asset. I am not sold on the power considering his StatCast data and now the talk of a deadened ball could hurt guys like him. The speed is definitely there and I buy into the hit tool, but I do worry that the speed won’t translate into a ton of stolen bases at the Major League level. The Tigers were tied with the fifth fewest stolen bases in the Majors and new manager A.J. Hinch did not have his guys steal much in Houston when he was manager there. Add in the fact he is likely hitting at the bottom of the lineup is just another reason to fade him.
| 1/20/21-2/23/21 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/20-10/31/20 | 11/1/20-11/30/20 | 12/1/20-1/19/21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | SS | 3.5 | 3.26 | 2.7 | 0.29 |
| 7.31 | Trea Turner | WAS | SS | 6.5 | 7.07 | 7.05 | -0.26 |
| 12.09 | Trevor Story | COL | SS | 10.75 | 11.56 | 11.62 | -0.47 |
| 17.69 | Francisco Lindor | CLE | SS | 15.25 | 17.04 | 16.45 | -1.24 |
| 20.47 | Adalberto Mondesi | KC | SS | 31 | 28.59 | 22.68 | 2.21 |
| 24.52 | Bo Bichette | TOR | SS | 18.75 | 19.15 | 23.02 | -1.5 |
| 34.26 | Xander Bogaerts | BOS | SS | 35 | 36.67 | 35.37 | 1.11 |
| 37.38 | Corey Seager | LAD | SS | 32.25 | 28.59 | 35.05 | -2.33 |
| 40.43 | Tim Anderson | CWS | SS | 42.75 | 38.33 | 40.67 | 0.24 |
| 68.43 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | SS | 68.25 | 66.33 | 69.17 | 0.74 |
| 68.78 | Javier Baez | CHC | SS | 74.75 | 73.19 | 71.96 | 3.18 |
| 100.24 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | SS | 116.25 | 103.07 | 103.27 | 3.03 |
| 126.12 | Tommy Edman | STL | 2B, 3B, SS, OF | 133.75 | 145.04 | 127.66 | 1.54 |
| 126.21 | Carlos Correa | HOU | SS | 131.25 | 128.56 | 126.88 | 0.67 |
| 126.86 | Marcus Semien | OAK | SS | 139.75 | 142.3 | 147.45 | 20.59 |
| 158.45 | Andres Gimenez | NYM | 2B, 3B, SS | 223.75 | 214.78 | 188.35 | 29.9 |
| 164.72 | Didi Gregorius | PHI | SS | 161.5 | 154.78 | 167.41 | 2.69 |
| 164.79 | Jonathan Villar | TOR | 2B, SS | 119.25 | 130.52 | 141.48 | -23.31 |
| 194.29 | Ha-Seong Kim | FA | SS | 271.25 | 211.3 | 165.62 | -28.67 |
| 208.4 | Paul DeJong | STL | SS | 233.25 | 216.7 | 222.17 | 13.77 |
| 210 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | 160.75 | 157.81 | 154.78 | -55.22 |
| 217.69 | Jorge Polanco | MIN | SS | 206 | 195.63 | 209.87 | -7.82 |
| 222.78 | Chris Taylor | LAD | 2B, SS, OF | 250 | 232 | 217.78 | -5 |
| 230.38 | David Fletcher | LAA | 2B, 3B, SS | 221.25 | 219.74 | 217.76 | -12.62 |
| 237.59 | Amed Rosario | NYM | SS | 350.75 | 358.78 | 332 | 94.41 |
| 253.29 | Willi Castro | DET | 3B, SS | 239 | 245.33 | 230.96 | -22.33 |
| 274.88 | Mauricio Dubon | SF | 2B, SS, OF | 347.5 | 311.37 | 282.57 | 7.69 |
| 296.36 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | TEX | 3B, SS | 378.25 | 314.78 | 290.32 | -6.04 |
| 314.47 | Joey Wendle | TB | 2B, 3B, SS | 323.75 | 309.78 | 303.01 | -11.46 |
| 315.21 | Wander Franco | TB | SS | 200.25 | 231.11 | 295.18 | -20.03 |
| 327.64 | Willy Adames | TB | SS | 286.25 | 286.96 | 314.38 | -13.26 |
| 349.03 | Nick Ahmed | ARZ | SS | 353.25 | 386.3 | 378.1 | 29.07 |
| 368.91 | Miguel Rojas | MIA | SS | 378.75 | 390 | 375.1 | 6.19 |
| 374.78 | Niko Goodrum | DET | 2B, SS | 430.5 | 434.22 | 398.28 | 23.5 |
| 376.12 | Elvis Andrus | TEX | SS | 337 | 360.67 | 447.12 | 71 |
| 376.34 | J.P. Crawford | SEA | SS | 426 | 422.26 | 415.1 | 38.76 |
| 386.33 | Andrelton Simmons | LAA | SS | 472 | 466.81 | 467.1 | 80.77 |
| 388.36 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 394 | 401.96 | 395.85 | 7.49 |
| 407.78 | Jose Iglesias | LAA | SS | 379 | 393.11 | 392.56 | -15.22 |
| 411.22 | Nico Hoerner | CHC | 2B, SS | 500 | 461.96 | 425.57 | 14.35 |
| 421.48 | Freddy Galvis | CIN | 2B, SS | 580 | 583.7 | 599.89 | 178.41 |
| 438.12 | Orlando Arcia | MLW | SS | 505.25 | 513.93 | 502.99 | 64.87 |
| 448.81 | Jazz Chisholm | MIA | 2B, SS | 404 | 419.7 | 439.48 | -9.33 |
| 453.93 | Kevin Newman | PIT | 2B, SS | 503.5 | 505.33 | 521.21 | 67.28 |
| 491.33 | Brandon Crawford | SF | SS | 582 | 515.56 | 532.32 | 40.99 |
| 500.09 | Pat Valaika | BAL | 1B, 2B, SS | 575 | 550.33 | 508.82 | 8.73 |
| 521 | Jeter Downs | BOS | SS | 529.25 | 510.41 | 502.29 | -18.71 |
| 539.91 | Anderson Tejeda | TEX | SS | 503.25 | 493.74 | 525.7 | -14.21 |
| 548.76 | Erik Gonzalez | PIT | 3B, SS | 697.5 | 636.3 | 596.54 | 47.78 |
| 589.81 | Leury Garcia | CWS | SS | 639.5 | 628.96 | 664.61 | 74.8 |
| 602.02 | Jose Garcia | CIN | SS | 542.75 | 560.19 | 623.98 | 21.96 |
| 630.62 | Royce Lewis | MIN | SS | 586.25 | 605.33 | 627.41 | -3.21 |
| 666.1 | Tyler Wade | NYY | 2B, SS | 723.25 | 681.19 | 701.07 | 34.97 |
| 685.9 | Kyle Farmer | CIN | 2B, SS | NA | 748.78 | 745.27 | 59.37 |
| 718.26 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | SS | 742.5 | 735.74 | 735.24 | 16.98 |
| 721.09 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | SS | 730 | 664.41 | 728.13 | 7.04 |
| 731.69 | Joe Panik | TOR | 2B, 3B, SS | 720.25 | 734.3 | 742.28 | 10.59 |
| 734.16 | Taylor Walls | TB | SS | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 734.66 | Richie Martin | BAL | SS | NA | NA | 739.68 | 5.02 |
| 738.55 | Tyler Freeman | CLE | SS | 669.75 | 704 | 706.49 | -32.06 |
| 739.16 | Eric Sogard | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 735.5 | 749.3 | 741.23 | 2.07 |
| 740.09 | Ramon Urias | BAL | SS | NA | 747.3 | 730.13 | -9.96 |
| 746.95 | Austin Martin | TOR | SS | 686.5 | 725.44 | 737.9 | -9.05 |
| 747.48 | Marco Luciano | SF | SS | NA | 745.93 | 748.98 | 1.5 |
| 748.09 | Andrew Velazquez | BAL | SS, OF | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 748.45 | Owen Miller | CLE | SS | 695.5 | 724.63 | 728.39 | -20.06 |
| 748.71 | CJ Abrams | SD | SS | 735.25 | 744.93 | 750.62 | 1.91 |
| 749.6 | Ehire Adrianza | MIN | 3B, SS | NA | 750.59 | 745.21 | -4.39 |
| 750.6 | Ryan Vilade | COL | SS | NA | NA | 749.51 | -1.09 |
| 750.72 | Santiago Espinal | TOR | SS | NA | NA | 749.37 | -1.35 |
| 750.86 | Nick Gordon | MIN | SS | NA | 747.15 | 748.39 | -2.47 |
| NA | Yu Chang | CLE | SS | NA | 750.37 | 740.16 | NA |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
I’m fading Willi Castro too, but if he falls that far, I’ll take a gamble. Speed is rare and that late he won’t hurt you, but could really help.