Second Base ADP Market Report: 12/5/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Jazz Chisholm (+7.67)- Chisholm is a fan favorite so it is not surprising to see him start to rise up the ADP in spite of the clear red flags. Yes, the upside is amazing, but he has now missed time in back-to-back seasons which is concerning. I love the player, but I think you need to be careful in deeper formats and formats that don’t have many IL spots. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Ozzie Albies (-11.22)- Albies is dropping because of his durability issues. He has now missed large portions of two of the last three seasons. When healthy, Albies is a fantastic five category player that is worthy of a top two round pick, but the question becomes whether or not he is worth the risk. Personally, I am willing to take the gamble on a guy I took as high as 12th overall last year if he is dropping outside the top 50.

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Thairo Estrada (+15.42)- Lost in what was a very disappointing season for the San Francisco Giants was the fantastic play of Estrada. He hit 14 home runs and stole 21 bases in 140 games while playing five different positions. He enters the season with eligibility at second and shortstop with the opportunity to potentially pick it up at third base if the Giants do sign one of the top shortstops who they have been rumored to be interested in. I think there is a chance that he regresses a little in all areas, but he is such a complete contributor that he he still is a nice five category guy. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Jorge Polanco (-15.45)- Polanco had a disappointing season that ended prematurely with a knee issue. Considering the change in ball, the power was bound to take a step back, but my bigger concerns are the decreases in contact and aggressiveness. Maybe some of that is due to the injury, but I worry that if the Twins due bring in a shortstop as they have been rumored to do that any struggles will lead to a loss of playing time, though the rumors that Minnesota could trade Luis Arraez alleviates some of my fears. If his price continues to drop, he could become an interesting gamble due to the power and the speed combination we have seen in healthy seasons. 

Vaughn Grissom (-11.25)- I am a bit surprised that Grissom is dropping considering how well he played in his 41 game sample in the Majors. Now, it was a bit fraudulent as he ran a .350 BABIP, but he showed some pretty great BABIPs in the minor league and the contact skills were actually pretty impressive. I am actually loving this price especially if the Braves don’t bring in a shortstop to push him out of a job. 

Ketel Marte (-14.25)- Marte is dropping after spending large amounts of time on the IL in three straight seasons. That being said, if you are a Marte believer, there is no better time to buy than now. He still has power and speed and will likely hit at the top of an improving Diamondbacks lineup. I have faded him for the last few seasons, but I could see myself dipping my toes back in those waters in leagues where there are IL spots and replacement value on the wire. 

Jake Cronenworth (-28.82)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Gavin Lux (+11.07)- I think Lux is gaining in the ADP in large part due to opportunity in Los Angeles. With Justin Turner hitting free agency and Cody Bellinger being DFA’d, he figures to finally get over 500 plate appearances. He has shown good contact skills and speed with enough power to not be a zero in the homer department. I do think that the power he showed in the minor leagues is in the bat as well, but he will need to raise his launch angle to tap into it. I think there will be a big season at some point from Lux and he is only 25 years old, so I am still very much in even with an increasing price.  

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Christopher Morel (-12.3)- I am not surprised to see Morel drop considering the atrocious plate skills. Had he gotten enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter, he would have had the league’s worst zone contact rate and the third worst swinging strike rate. He had to run a .320 BABIP just in order to hit .235 which is not reassuring. There is power and speed there, but he could easily find himself as a utility player or in the minor leagues unless he makes massive improvements in contact. 

DJ LeMahieu (-25.69)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-16.95)- I am not surprised to see Berti drop in price as people start to realize how unlikely it is for him to repeat the league winning season he had for fantasy managers. He could steal 30 bases, but at what cost? He is likely a negative in every other category and that is just so hard to roster. I want to try and find this year’s Jon Berti not pay for last year’s. 

Jean Segura (-43.76)- I think that Segura’s drop is largely due to his option being declined which makes him a free agent. I think he will land a full time job and while it likely won’t be with as stacked of a team as Philadelphia, it could be in a spot where he hits higher up in the lineup. Even with only playing 98 games, he was still very productive at age 32. I think he is a nice gamble especially at this price. 

 

Others of Note

Kevin Newman (+152.5)- Newman is still going extremely late, but with his trade to Cincinnati people are pushing him up the ADP. Newman is in line to play a fair amount, but I don’t know that he is worth much outside of the deepest of leagues. Maybe a 10/10 guy with a .260 average. If that plays in your league, then he is worth a pick. 

Jonathan Aranda (+74.17)- I wonder how much of Aranda’s gain is the trade of Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh. That being said, I am a huge fan and he is one of the players I have drafted in both of my completed leagues so far. There is some really good pop with contact skills here and he seems like he could add position eligibility at first base and maybe third (in Yahoo he is already first base eligible.)

Zach McKinstry (-69.87)- I am a little surprised to see McKinstry plummeting the way he is. If you look at what he did in the last month of the season, he played almost every day while leading off in all but three of those games while hitting three home runs and stealing four bases. On the negative side, he struck out 30% of the time during that stretch and hit just .225 in spite of above average zone contact. Right now he looks like he could be the odd man out of the lineup, but because he can play everywhere, he could emerge as a super utility guy for the Cubs or even a full time player if he outperforms Christopher Morel. I think he is an extremely deep sleeper in deep leagues.