Shields Sweetens San Diego Staff

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

We all know how valuable a pitcher in Petco Park can be, even if they aren’t on the high end of the talent spectrum. Thankfully for us in 2015, the Padres staff will have some of that upper-end talent paired with a far more capable offense to support it. It is incredible how much one addition can make a difference for a club as the rotation looks so much more formidable now with their latest signing. Here is how the top four stack up:

James Shields
Andrew Cashner
Tyson Ross
Ian Kennedy

Their rotation wasn’t bad before the Shields signing, but bumping everybody down a slot with his addition gives them a much stronger look. Let’s dive into these four a little deeper.

Shields has had an interesting offseason. Seemingly based on his rough October, there has been some backlash thrown his way and the protracted bout with free agency only fueled the notion that he was somehow overrated and not quite an upper crust arm. I understand the Big Game James moniker doesn’t marry well with his 5.46 playoff ERA, but the idea that he has been anything less than an incredibly durable and high-quality starter is ridiculous.

He has averaged 223 innings over the last eight seasons with a low of 203. He has just one ERA- north of 97 in that run with a 131 in 2010 and his FIP- says it wasn’t quite that poor at 107. He has evolved throughout the period as well, becoming a strikeout force for a two-year period in 2011-20112 as his strikeout rate jumped from 19.5 in 2007-2010 to 23.4 percent, tied for 14th-best in baseball with Felix Hernandez in that time.

He has always had a groundball lean, but he became a stud with it in 2012 when he paired his career-best 23.6 percent strikeout rate with a 52.3 percent groundball rate. He deserved a better fate than his 3.52 ERA that year, but he was coming off of a 2.82 ERA the year before and xFIP suggests he really wasn’t much different with marks of 3.25 and 3.24 in those two seasons. Speaking of xFIP, his has lived in a tight band between 3.24 and 3.87 over the eight seasons during which he has averaged those 223 innings in 33 starts.

If you’re waiting for the downside, you might want to get comfortable. Because even if you want to go in on his declining strikeout rate – which hit a five-year low of 19.2 percent last season – his walk rate also hit a six-year low of 4.7 percent yielding his second-best K:BB ratio ever at 4.1. OK, so that’s what he’s done. What should we expect going forward? More of the same seems like a worthy bet. The move to the NL and one of the best parks in the NL should stave off some of the age-related decline that is bound to start chipping away at his skills.

NL starters had advantages of 0.09 in ERA and 0.03 in WHIP last year and that’s before factoring in Petco. Kauffman Stadium in KC is widely regarded as a pitcher’s park, likely due to its suppression of home runs, but it’s actually been slightly in favor of hitters over the last three years with a 104 park factor for runs. Petco meanwhile completely lives up to its reputation as a pitcher’s haven with an 83 runs factor. Early ADP data has Shields as the 36th starter off the board, but this move should vault him up substantially. I think it puts him at least on the fringes of the top 20, if not firmly in it.

Cashner enters 2015 on the heels of a breakout-ish season with a 2.55 ERA, but in just 123.3 innings. In fact, that last piece remains the biggest issue with the massive righty. He’s entering his age-28 season and has a career-high of 175 innings and just two MLB seasons north of 55 innings. When he is on, he looks like one of the game’s brightest stars on the mound, but he has suffered through four DL stints in the last four seasons which cost him virtually all of 2011, two months of 2012, and three months last season.

The bottom line is that even though he is 28, he is still a relatively young starter at the major league level from an innings standpoint. Being brought up as a reliever along with the injuries I discussed earlier limiting him to just 313.7 innings as a starter so far. The one given right now is the poor health. I don’t think you can start penciling in more than 175 innings with any confidence. I refuse to believe that this 18 percent strikeout stuff is all we’re getting from him, though. The command of his fastball and quality secondary stuff points to more strikeouts. I’m still buying.

I’m a touch more skeptical on Ross. It was a tremendous season and even if it wasn’t fully backed by the skills, anyone would still be more than happy with the 3.11 xFIP or even the 3.21 SIERA. He has the unique pairing of great strikeout and groundball rates, not to mention a friendly ballpark that will help cover up some mistakes. The primary flaw remains his walk rate which actually ticked up 0.2 percentage points to 8.9 percent. If there is another concern, it is the slider usage. He shot up to a 41.2 percent rate last year that easily led the league (MadisonBumgarner was second at 35%).

That kind of heavy slider usage can be an injury precursor and Ross already has a checkered injury history. I still like him as a pitcher because of the high quality skills in his tool kit, but as the 22nd pitcher off the board, his margin for error is erased entirely and I think there is an easy scenario in which he is more of a mid-3.00s ERA guy: the high walk rate creates extra traffic on the bases that he doesn’t quite strand at a 75 percent clip again and/or the heavy slider usage shelves him for a two-week period and puts some rust on the arm and he allows the same amount of runs as last year except in a 180-inning season instead of the 195.7 last year. Be careful here.

Kennedy rebounded from a disastrous 2013, enjoying his second-best season ever as a full-time member of the Padres. I would be willing to trade some of those strikeouts (24.5%) for improved control and a lower WHIP (1.29). Something like his 2011 season when he was at 22 percent strikeouts and 6.1 percent walks would be perfect. I think there is a nice floor here now where even a repeat would be useful, but we also have some real upside even if he doesn’t improve the skills. If he leverages that home ballpark better (3.93 home ERA, 3.32 road mark), the path to a low-3.00s ERA is cleared. At their current prices, I prefer Kennedy to Ross. Kennedy is going 77 picks later and doubles Ross up as the 44th starter off the board.

That leaves us with the fifth starter which is currently up for grabs. The candidates include:

Robbie Erlin
Odrisamer Despaigne
Brandon Morrow

Starting backwards, can we just eliminate Morrow? Or did y’all still want to pretend he’s going to do something? Let’s just not.

I’ve been a fan of Erlin since he joined the Padres after a trade from Texas. He is one of those backend starters who will benefit greatly from his home park and can become fantasy relevant in just about every format, but he needs reps right now. Commanding his solid-but-unspectacular fastball more regularly and eschewing his slider altogether are his quickest paths to success. He had an above strikeout rate with the fastball (17.4%), but when it got hit, it got hit hard (.854 OPS, 36.4% LD rate).

Despaigne wasn’t too bad last year, but at 28, it’s hard to see much growth coming. We probably saw his peak last year. As a home-only starter, you could get some useful numbers, but I’d be careful in anything resembling a tough matchup. His best fantasy value is as a streaming option or in DFS formats as a cheap SP2 in favorable home starts. Junk-ballers are much more fun to watch when your fantasy success isn’t hanging in the balance.

The addition of Shields turns this from a group of promise and ifs to a more formidable unit that doesn’t need a Cashner breakout or a Ross repeat to hold up. The Padres still obviously need those two to contribute substantially, but taking some of the burden off of them was a great move by AJ Preller. There is always fantasy intrigue with a SD staff, but now it’s a talent-rich staff and not just a ballpark-boosted collection of mediocre arms. I didn’t even get to Josh Johnson or Cory Luebke, both on the return trail from their second Tommy John surgeries, and if either can give them anything close to what they have delivered in the past, then it’s not only a quality staff, but also one with some depth. Those two are super-longshots, but they still have a chance at depth if prospects Matt Wisler and Casey Kelly arrive this year and start delivering on their big promise.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

11 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Yancy Eaton
9 years ago

Would we all agree that the Rays, Padres, and Nats have the strongest rotations in the League? Or am I missing someone?

Rainmakermember
9 years ago
Reply to  Yancy Eaton

I’m not sure the Rays are there as Moore isn’t back until June (with more iffy command) Smyly is still unproven, Odorizzi is inconsistent, and Colome and Karns are question marks.

I’d say its the Nats in a distant first then, something like LAD, ATL and STL

Borg
9 years ago
Reply to  Rainmaker

Odorizzi has one season under his belt. How is he already being labelled inconsistent?

Josiah
9 years ago
Reply to  Yancy Eaton

Mariners vs. Rays:
Felix>Cobb
Kuma>Archer
Paxton=Odorizzi, in my opinion
HappColome, at least in upside

And the sixth starters are probably a wash (Elias and Karns)

Josiah
9 years ago
Reply to  Josiah

Whoops phone deleted part. Should read:
HappColome, at least in upside

Josiah
9 years ago
Reply to  Josiah

Oh my gosh…phone did it again. Happ is worse than Smyly, Walker is better than Colome. There.