Phillies Outfield: Bleak Prospects

This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

The Phillies project to be the worst team in baseball next season. While the bullpen can’t be blamed for the terrible projection, the outfield looks ugly. The team has seven players in the mix, all of whom combine for a whopping 0.8 WAR. Let’s run through the options.

Phillies LF

Left field is the home of Domonic Brown. He was once regarded as the best prospect in baseball, ahead of Mike Trout. The former blue chip talent has -1.2 WAR to his name and is coming off an abysmal -1.7 WAR season. Those familiar with him know he has just one fantastic month on his resume – May of 2013. The rest of his career has been a study in mediocrity.

Despite above average athleticism, Brown can’t figure out how to field his position. Fantasy owners usually ignore fielding, but they shouldn’t in the case of Brown. He’s not far from finding himself on the bench. Philadelphia will give him another chance to succeed. Eventually, they will turn to others like Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera, semi-prospect Kelly Dugan, or even first baseman Darin Ruf.

Dugan is a 24-year-old hitting prospect who has spent much of his career hurt. He profiles similarly to Lucas Duda, although he does seem to possess enough athleticism to pass in the outfield. When he’s on the field, he combines decent plate discipline with solid power. Steamer projects a .239/.293/.377 line, so he’ll have to play his way into the outfield rotation.

Phillies CF

The outfield may be a mess, but at least center field is solved. Ben Revere – the likely leadoff hitter – is entering his age 27 season with a career .291/.324/.340 line. Fantasy owners are familiar with Revere’s base thieving ways. He’s always among the best bets to swipe 40 bases. Defensively, he’s better suited for left-field, but this is a non-factor so long as he remains in Philadelphia. Along with the stolen bases, expect a good average and plenty of runs scored.

Revere is one of the best position players on the roster, yet the club should consider trading him. His long term value is tied up in the health of his legs. The Phillies should be running open tryouts in the outfield all season, mixing in castoffs whenever possible. They originally traded a decent pitcher – Vance Worley – to acquire Revere.

Beyond Revere, the options are squirrely. Utility man Cesar Hernandez may be the best bet. Entering his age 25 season, Hernandez has bounced around the majors since 2013. He’s yet to impress at the major league level, but he has all the raw tools of a versatile bench bat. This season might be the year he carves out a long term role with the club.

Phillies RF

After acquiring Grady Sizemore to support the outfield late in 2014, the club decided to give him another shot. Once he arrived in Philly, Sizemore was the epitome of replacement level. For an optimist, the important thing about 2014 was health. He surpassed 300 plate appearances for the first time since 2009.

Health, confidence, and another year of training could help him to tap into the power, speed, and contact abilities that made him a star in Cleveland. Is it likely to happen? Of course not. We’ve also seen crazier things in this wild game, so it’s hard to fault the Phillies for trying. If the experiment does bomb, he’s an easy player to release.

Herrera should split some reps with Sizemore from day one. The Rule 5 pick and MVP of the Venezuelan winter league has more power than his minor league numbers show. In a full season, he could pop 10 home runs with 20 stolen bases. His approach at the plate appears workable. With such a raw outfield, the Phillies won’t be handing Herrera back to the Rangers.

The Others

Jordan Danks
Aaron Altherr
Jeff Francoeur

Danks is a name you probably know, but that doesn’t mean he’s good. The 28-year-old lefty hits best against right-handed pitching. It’s not a useful platoon split – his career .297 wOBA against righties isn’t helpful. Danks will get a shot to make the club out of spring training, but he probably shouldn’t. He’s better suited as an org soldier.

Altherr, 24, continues to inspire rave comments about his physicality. It’s a shame he’s struggled to actualize any baseball skills. The righty has the raw power and speed to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases, but he doesn’t make enough contact or reach base frequently enough for it to happen. If he ever solves his contact issues, he should be a beast. It’s a giant “if.”

Francoeur is a name we all know, but he hasn’t been an asset in a long time. Since a 2.5 WAR performance in 2011, he’s combined for -3.1 WAR in just 887 plate appearances.





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Cookie Rojas
9 years ago

It doesn’t alter the aggregate suckiness of the talent pool, but the plan is for Domonic Brown to move back to right field, where he was visibly a more capable fielder (though UZR disagrees.) More important, he was apparently more comfortable in general when playing RF in 2013 than when playing LF in 2014. Brown moving to right would allow Ruf to regularly platoon with Sizemore in LF and/or Herrera. (Ruf should not play an inning in RF.)