Second Base ADP Market Report: 12/19/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Nico Hoerner (+10.65)- Hoerner is rising after a season in which he broke out, hitting .283/.346/.383 with nine home runs and 43 stolen bases. Hoerner has amazing contact skills and plate skills and while there is not a ton of power in the profile, he has even more batting average upside than last year and a ton of speed and run scoring potential. I hope his price doesn’t go up much more but even if it does, I am still ok paying it. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Andres Gimenez (+10.36) – I think Gimenez’s rise is more a correction for being a little too low in the early ADP more than anything else. While he had a 97 wRC+, he had a very good fantasy season, hitting 15 home runs and stealing 30 bases. He doesn’t have the counting stats in terms of runs and RBIs to justify his price continuing to rise, but the power/speed combo means he is appropriately ranked right now. 

Ketel Marte (+12.14) – Marte is rising after a bounceback season in which he hit .276/.358/.485 with 25 home runs and eight stolen bases. Most importantly, this was his first healthy season in four years. The skills are really good, but the question remains if he can stay healthy for a full season again. I don’t mind the price but if it raises any more then I am out. 

Thairo Estrada (+13.25) – Estrada’s rise is a bit more perplexing. He had a nice season where he hit 14 home runs and stole 23 bases, but he struggled to stay healthy and he got pretty lucky in the BABIP department. I also worry about the strength of the team around him and his ability to get the counting stats needed to be helpful. In some ways he a cheaper version of Gimenez, but I think there are enough guys going behind him that I like that it seems unlikely that I draft him often. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ronny Mauricio (+12.43) – Out for the season so this rise doesn’t mean much. 

Gavin Lux (+27.12) – Lux is rising as it appears he is going to be fully healthy in 2024 and have a full time role. The former top prospect had a lot of hype heading into 2023, but it was derailed by injury. There is pop and speed in the profile, but we have never seen it all come to fruition. I am a believer in the talent, but I worry the hype train may get out of control especially considering he is never hitting high up in this loaded lineup. 

Jorge Polanco (+17.73) – Why is Polanco rising? To be honest, I don’t get it. The Twins seem to want to move him and that would be for the best because I don’t know that he is a starter when everyone else is healthy. Add in the fact that he struggles with health and I wouldn’t have bought at his previous price much less at the new one. 

Luis Rengifo (+17.84) – I am not surprised to see Rengifo rise after a quietly nice season in which he hit .264/.339/.444 with 16 home runs and six stolen bases in 445 plate appearances. He also has quadruple eligibility which is always valuable. That being said, I have some concerns that the Angels don;t really want him to be a full time player. He didn’t start racking up the plate appearances until they were hit by injuries and I worry that they will bury him if the team is healthy. On the plus side, the Angels are rarely healthy at all so there is a chance even if they don’t want him to get 600 plate appearances that he still could. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jonathan India (-13.69) – India is dropping due to the confusion around playing time. Before the Reds signed Candelario, they had committed to India being a regular player and potentially moving to first. Since the signing, that is more in question. If he were moved to a different team, he could become really interesting but would be losing the best home park in baseball. I haven’t even mentioned his injury track record which is spotty at best. I think I am waiting to see if he gets moved. 

Edouard Julien (-19.22) – Why do people hate Julien? I think it is pretty clear the Twins want him to play regularly and hit atop of the lineup. There is a fair amount of pop, amazing plate discipline and there is a ton of run potential. I have already drafted him multiple times and I will continue to grab shares as he gets cheaper and cheaper. 

Brandon Lowe (-13.54) – Lowe is falling due to his health concerns and that is absolutely fair. He only has one season with more than 450 plate appearances and he still sucks versus left handed pitching. I love the upside but I think that people continuing to draft him even at the reduced rate are chasing that dragon foolishly. 

 

Others of Note

Jordan Westburg (-20.6) – I think Westburg’s drop has a lot to do with uncertain playing time. The Orioles are loaded offensively with young talent and that will only continue to be more complicated. Unfortunately, I see Westburg as a player without a carrying tool in fantasy which means he needs that full time role in order to accumulate and I just don’t know that it is in the cards for him. 

Luis Garcia (-24.21) – Like Westburg, Garcia is a guy that could be an interesting accumulator if given the full time playing time. Unfortunately, it appears the Nationals just don’t like him as much as I wish they would. They have already made it clear that he does not have the second base job locked down and that tells me that he won’t be an every day guy. 

Luis Urias (+45.88) – Urias is rising after being traded to the Mariners and appears to have a full time role in Seattle as the team is currently constructed. That being said, Urias was awful in 2023 and the new park won’t do him a ton of favors. I would be pretty surprised if Seattle entered the season with him as a full time player.