Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – December 20th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

PJ: Is Glasnow 110 million dollars better than pepiot? Is Margot any different than Doluca beyond salary? The Dodgers are making really questionable decisions imo

Paul Sporer: I love Pepiot, but Glasnow is definitely better and by quite a bit (Pep can get to a pretty high level, IMO, but Glasnow is ace quality right now). The problem is of course his health. That’s an unknowable X-factor and if he continues to deal w/health issues, it’s very possible Pepiot outearns him. Agree on Margot/Deluca.

copecru81: Pfaadt or Abbott keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Pfaadt for me. They’re close in a neutral situation, but of course there are in very different parks so I lean toward the guy who isn’t stuck in Cincy’s tough park

Globbery Robbery: Really enjoyed you and Justin on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast with Scott and Frank. Please invite Scott on to the S&TB podcast sometime this season! I think you guys could really have good debates.

Paul Sporer: We absolutely plan to have a home-and-home with them coming on SATB this winter

Paul Sporer: NOTE: I know y’all have been waiting & asking for SP rankings. We just finalized our plans on rollout and my big SP commentary ranking piece will be out the week of January 3rd. I was gonna drop a quick 1-to-whatever without commentary, but I was asked to just wait until we do the full rankings rollout. So week of January 3rd… stay tuned!

Matt: Any change in view of Pepiot on TB now?

Paul Sporer: No, still love him. Not sure his innings outlook changes all that much, either

Bork: Where my boy Matt Boyd landing?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say right now, but he’ll probably be a backend guy even if he goes to a lower-tier team

Kyle: Would you rather win the main event or have the Tigers win back to back to back world series titles? If you win the main event, Tigers never win a title for as long as you’re alive.

Paul Sporer: I’d probably take the selfish route and snag my Main Event overall title! I loooove my Tigers, but there are no guarantees they win in my lifetime anyway, so I’ll take the certainty of the ME title

Dodgers Blue: Patrick Bailey accumulate enough stats to consider in a two-catcher league?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure and I think he has upside to be a legit option in 1-C 12-teamers. There is a C renaissance right now so he’s not a lock for 1-C lgs, but I’m a big Bailey fan

guest: If you had the chance to trade some kind of package of Cease, M.Vargas for combo of Royce Lewis, Buxton, would you do it? I believe in Lewis for dynasty, but do you believe in Buxton longterm? Cease is pretty filthy.

Paul Sporer: Love both injury-riddled Twins and while both are tough to bet on in terms of volume, it’s not like pitchers are the best bet, either. That said, I do believe Cease will be traded so I’ve been buying in some fall/winter drafts in hopes of a spiking a trade to LAD or BAL or some other great team that helps him get back on track… even if only from a Ws standpoint as his control might just always be a bit suspect bc his stuff is so filthy

Guest: I wish the Tigers would sign some bigger names rather than these half-healthy reclamation projects

Paul Sporer: I’m actually really OK w/this offseason so far. They’re not 1 big piece or anything and it’s not a super rich FA pool anyway. They need to continue developing and these solid mid-roster veterans can really help w/that while also contributing plenty of stats

Dave: Is a cheap Nolan Gorman worth holding onto in a keeper league? I can’t decide if he’s potentially really good or if it’s just lingering top prospect sheen.

Paul Sporer: Standard high volatility kind of power guy, but I think he has a great shot at 30+ HRs next yr. Being cheap (or a later pick in drafts) allows you to take on the risk that he hits my weight (.165) and bottoms out… all in all, I’m a fan

PJ: Can I buy stock in the fact that Joey Bart will be a Miami Marlin before 2024?

Paul Sporer: lol I could totally see that

Guest: These chats are wonderful. Thanks! I much success last season much thanks to Sleeper and the Bust & Jeff Zimmerman

Paul Sporer: Thank you for the kind words! I’m pretty sure reading Jeff’s stuff is worth at least 2-3 ranking spots a year for me in each league, if not more!

Kate’s Dad: Westburg or McNeil for 2b? In real life… defense counts.

Paul Sporer: IRL, I’m going Westburg

Babyfarts: How would you rank Cease/Bibee/Javier/Woo in a points dynasty league? Strikeouts reign supreme

Paul Sporer: In the order you have ’em listed here

Tony: I typically don’t like having a bunch of starters from one team, but in my 10-keeper league, I suddenly have three Dodgers starters in Buehler, Glasnow, and Bobby Miller. Is it crazy to keep all three?

Paul Sporer: Not crazy at all. I don’t get too hung up on too many guys from one team, especially if it’s regarded as the very best team or at least in contention for that title. All three have mega-ace upside. Obviously Buehler and Glasnow have major health considerations, but on a per inning basis, their ace credentials are firm. Miller, meanwhile, is my favorite of the huge rookie crop to become a bona fide ace in the near future

Anonymous: 3 keeper 10 team OPS and QS league – Freeman, Witt Jr, Schwarbs, strider, Webb, wheeler among options. Do I take strider over schwarber?

Paul Sporer: Yes, for sure. I know OPS helps Schwarber, but in a 10-teamer, you gotta go for the ace SP

Dodgers Blue: Endy Rodriguez worth holding onto in a keeper league?  Struggled in his cup of coffee and is out for a year now.  Are you still buying the pedigree?

Paul Sporer: Depends how deep and how many keepers, but probably not. I’m generally dubious on rookie Cs in general. But also the aforementioned catcher renaissance that I mentioned earlier makes it even easier to move on from Endy at this juncture unless you keep a LOTTTTT of players

Matt: Kerry Carpenter is going to have a every-day starting role, correct?

Paul Sporer: Might not start daily vL and that’s OK, but shouldn’t miss a game vR

Dodgers Blue: How do you see Twins IF shaking out?  Miranda, Lewis, Julien, Polanco – with Martin and Lee making a push….

Paul Sporer: Don’t forget Kirilloff, Willi Castro, and Nick Gordon lurking, too

Paul Sporer: Right now we have 1B Kirilloff, 2B Polanco, 3B Lewis, and DH Julien on the Twins Roster Resource page. That makes a lot of sense to me right now. They seem motivated to move Polanco, though, which I also agree with if they can do it. Kirilloff and Lewis have obviously had major issues staying healthy, but they will be everyday guys as long as their bodies allow. From there it gets really murky. If Julien could play defense, I’d feel a bit more confident in his everyday status, but even still I think his bat will get him plenty of burn.

Steve: Volpe or De La Cruz – keeper league

Paul Sporer: That’s tough with a pair of electric power/speed MI, but I will lean a little toward Volpe. Better plate skills should make him less volatile than I suspect Elly will be unless he’s able to sharply improve on his swing-and-miss or at least supplement it with more walks. They had a similar BB% in their rookie years, but Volpe’s historical BB% is much better coming through the minors so I can see him getting into double-digit rates as soon as next year.

DW: Gleyber:  27, Walk Year, Hitting alongside Soto and Judge.  Can I dream of a .280/30/100/100/15 season??

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think that’s very much in his upper register after back-to-back 25/10-type seasons. He has now become a pretty good value after being a bit overrated for a little bit after the huge HR season in 2019

Kyle: Jeff Zimmerman Appreciation Comment

Paul Sporer: Deserved!

Mr. Fister: There are three ways KC gets free agents….Overpay, offer one more year than everyone else, or sign guys who haven’t played baseball in two years.  Dayton Moore preferred option 3.  Looks like JJ prefers option 2.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t really have a problem with their moves this offseason

JAG: Vinnie P or Nolan Jones for last keeper spot in 6×6 cat league with OPS?

Paul Sporer: I lean Jones even though I know there’s a big comedown on the way after that .410 BABIP this year. Still in an amazing park with power and speed

Curtis Granderson: Remember when I had 30 home runs but only 59 RBIs in a season?

Paul Sporer: I do! He hit 24 solo shots with the Mets in 2016!

Santa Claus: SANTA. CLAUS.

franz: Will Correa bounce back next year?

Paul Sporer: If his body cooperates, but it’s hard to bet on that these days

PJ: Re: Bobby Miller – you and everyone else. Dude has ace written all over him

Paul Sporer: Yep, certainly wasn’t suggesting I’m on any sort of island

Hebrew: all my questions are about pitching, apparently.

With their rotation banged up, does Jack Leiter have a chance to make early season starts for the Rangers?

Paul Sporer: I think they will bring in enough bodies to ensure that isn’t the case. If he goes off in AAA, he could get an early call, but I don’t think they will want to be relying on him in any capacity heading into the season

Matt: Any concern about this injury for Musgrove? He’s been very consistently solid, but should we be concerned with IP at this point?

Paul Sporer: A little, yeah. Shoulder injuries are no joke. He’s right around pick-100 in fall drafts and I haven’t really been eyeing despite being a long-time fan. I’m inclined to go with someone who didn’t miss the end of the year with shoulder trouble

Dodgers Blue: Do you believe the Yanks should start Stanton at DH and use Grisham as a late defensive specialist, OR….. would they be better served starting their best fielders (Grisham in CF, Judge in RF, Verdugo in LF), put Soto in the DH spit and have Stanton as a late off-the-bench option?  IF Grisham gets a starting gig, can you see better numbers from him than what he showed in SD?

Paul Sporer: I’m one of Grisham’s bigger remaining fans, but I don’t think he can start in this current setup. Sunk cost fallacy or not, the Yankees are gonna try to get their value out of Stanton and if he’s healthy, he’ll be playing most days

Gamp: Trying to decide on keeping an $8 Taylor Ward in 5×5 Ottoneu. Right now, I’m likely keeping a $45 Judge, $12 Belli, and $6 Kwan, though taking offers on Belli and Kwan to address other needs. How do you feel about Ward going into the next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m still a big fan so an $8 investment feels pretty fair. I think I’d find a way to hang onto him in that setup

Kyle:   — this was me watching Skubal for the last two months of the season. Do you think he can maintain his sub 3 ERA or do you not think it was “real” (hint on the emoji).

Paul Sporer: I don’t project many guys for sub-3.00 ERA, but I believe he can be a true ace and I will be among those ranking him super high (he’s the 12th SP off the board in fall/winter drafts)

Chickie: I know the industry says Josh Naylor, and rightfully so. But in a keep forever without contracts, gotta go with CES in a burgeoning Cincy lineup and playing half his games in a school yard aka GAB?

Paul Sporer: Even as a big Naylor fan, I have zero issue going with CES. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is in that crowded Cincy lineup, but also gets the benefit of that amazing park and thus I think could pop 30 as early as 2024 (not my projection, but very much in his range of outcomes)

PJ: I know Senga made it look easy but how hard do you think it is to adjust from the tacky, smaller ball to a MLB ball?

Paul Sporer: Feels like a case-by-case type of thing. Some guys might really struggle with it, while others might barely be affected. So it’s worth noting, but hard to say exactly how it’ll affect any individual guy until we really see them get going in the majors

guest: Do you envision Tyler Black getting a chance to take over 2B for brewers this year?

Paul Sporer: If Brice Turang’s doesn’t improve (60 wRC+), Black can definitely get a shot at the keystone. Turang’s glove is a lock and he’s a strong base runner, but ya need more than a 60 wRC+ to really hang in the majors

Positions: What positions do you see having the depth where a top 10 (or ~30 for OF) player isn’t necessary? Which ones does a top 5 player feel necessary?

Paul Sporer: Depends how deep the league is, but I’ll take this as another chance to mention the catcher renaissance. In 1-C leagues, I’m still open to taking someone like Adley, but if I miss out on my 2-3 favorite superstars, then I’m absolutely waiting. SS has that vibe a bit, too. If I miss out on that group in the top 30-40 picks, I don’t mind waiting a bit. I’m going to push Oneil Cruz into the top 100 (88 ADP) when Volpe is there 50 picks later

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: Santa topped Damon today!

Kyle: A magic fantasy baseball fairy comes to you on January 1st at midnight and grants you the wish to foresee all of the 2024 baseball statistics by player. Would you use it to win every league you play in or would you rather have the season remain a mystery?

Paul Sporer: I got student loans for daysssss, I’m cookin my leagues lol

Rick M: Jarred Kelenic or Andrew Abbott enough to offer in trade from Michael King? 20 team dynasty

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s totally fine. Might not be accepted but not at all insulting to offer them

Colton: Think Seiya can keep the gains he made at the end of last year?

Paul Sporer: I do. Justin and I were huge fans of his coming into the season until that spring oblique injury came late in draft season. But he still showed himself to be the guy we were excited about once he got fully healthy in the summer

Luke: Any 1B sleepers you’d recommend? 30 team league and the pickings are slim.

Paul Sporer: Kyle Manzardo CLE, Ryan Noda OAK, Rowdy Tellez PIT, and even LaMonte Wade Jr. even though he’s only a strong-side platoon guy

Guest: Paul – please use the following for when you close the chat – I’ve already written everything down for you and it will be our secret that it was an imposter Paul Sporer who wrote it.

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later this week and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Remember no chat next week so next one is January 3rd. Happy Holidays, y’all!

Paul Sporer: Oh maybe I wasn’t supposed to your first msg, lol. Jokes aside, that’s a perfect outro and there will indeed be no chat next week! Have a great holiday season, y’all 💙