The Change: Alex Wood’s Bond Between Stuff & Command
Is there a more perplexing pitcher this year than Alex Wood has been so far? His pitches are all there, in the same quantities, at the same velocities, and with the same shapes… and the results — when it comes to balls and strikes at least — are nowhere to be found. Even my favorite pitch type peripherals are all out of whack.
How does a pitcher with the same stuff fail so miserably?
Check out how little his stuff has actually changed. I mean, these are the same pitches.
| Pitch | X-Mov | Y-Mov | Velocity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 FA | 9.0 | 6.9 | 89.8 |
| 15 FA | 10.0 | 6.7 | 89.6 |
| 14 CH | 10.7 | 2.1 | 82.8 |
| 15 CH | 11.6 | 2.0 | 82.7 |
| 14 CB | -3.2 | -5.1 | 79.1 |
| 15 CB | -5.0 | -3.6 | 78.4 |
Well, okay, the curve has changed a bit. By PITCHf/x. If you look at Brooks Baseball’s cleaned-up values, the curve is about the same. And no mention of changing his grip on the pitch or anything.
So, his pitches look like they are about the same. The results have not been.
| Pitch | 14 Whiff | 15 Whiff | 14 GB | 15 GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA | 6.0% | 2.6% | 45% | 55% |
| CH | 14.0% | 8.3% | 41% | 50% |
| CB | 15.3% | 8.8% | 62% | 57% |
He’s getting some more grounders, but it’s not enough to offset or explain the lack of whiffs.
Well, maybe the grounder rate difference is important. Look at his average height on the sinker, and it looks like Wood is throwing the ball lower in the zone.
That holds up with all of his pitches included, too. To the heat maps:
So Alex Wood is throwing all of the same pitches at mostly the same velocities, with mostly the same shape, and somehow throwing a little further down in the zone has robbed him of his ability to get whiffs? We’re not all the way there yet.
I mean, after all, Wood always had this coming. He had a 55% ground-ball rate in the minor leagues, 49% in his rookie year, and then was down to 46% last year. The three pitches he features — the curve, the sinker, and the change — are all great ground-ball pitches. And Wood managed to get these grounders alongside whiffs, in the past. So a focus on grounders isn’t robbing Wood of his strikeouts.
Except maybe in a roundabout way. Take a look at what happened when I asked a few of my favorite Braves fan friends about Wood’s early season. The short version: Ben Duronio and Joe Lucia thought I should take a look at his command.
We showed that the pitches were mostly the same by movement, but not by whiffs, but we didn’t show one aspect of the pitches that had also changed. See how often his pitches have been in the zone last year and this year.
| Pitch | 14 Zone% | 15 Zone% |
|---|---|---|
| FA | 56.00% | 51.60% |
| KC | 43.50% | 42.70% |
| CH | 40.20% | 36.10% |
It’s amazing to see concretely how Wood’s command is stealing opportunities for whiffs from him. Last year, 7.8% of Wood’s overall pitches came in a three ball count. This year, that percentage is up to 9.4%. He’s throwing the sinker in 78% of the three-ball counts this year, too. So he’s becoming more predictable, and he’s getting into situations where he can’t go to any of his three pitches at will.
That’s how command can hurt your ability to get whiffs, beyond the ability to actually place the curve and change in the right place to get whiffs. You need to be able to get into the right counts to use your dangerous offspeed pitches. It’s not just about the shape and velocity of the pitch, it’s about the predictability of its use, the location it’s thrown to, and the context of the at-bat.
Wood’s become slightly more predictable because of his focus on the bottom of the zone. He’s throwing too many pitches outside of the zone, and that’s hurting his ability to be unpredictable. The good news is, he’s had blips like this before (see below), his pitches are still all about the same, and his command isn’t Defcon 1 (Aka Allen Webster) bad. He should come out of this.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Eno,
In your most recent pitcher rankings you had Wood at fifteen and McHugh out of your top forty. How would those rankings change, if at all, today?
Who would you try to receive if trading Wood in a very deep NL only league?
Yes
Never heard of that player.
would you trade Wood for Gio/Duda? 12 teamer 5X5?
Defcon 5 is the lowest of heightened alert and where we are now. Defcon 1 means nuclear war is imminent.
fixed!
Wood bond. I get it.
Is there a chance he’s injured?
The velocity isn’t down enough to make me worry about injury, but it’d be nice to see if his release point has changed at all. If that’s the case, then it could be an indicator of shoulder pain. And that would worry me a lot.
Huh. It has gradually dropped, but you’d think if it was significant, the shape of the pitches would have changed. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=622072&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=z0&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/28/2015
Crap, should have checked his injury factors. His zone% is down a bit and his late-game release point consistency is, too. But velocity is stable, so it’s not clear cut.
That graph is super helpful Eno! It’s interesting how his release point has dropped over time, and explains how he’s been ending up lower in the zone lately. It’s also interesting how his release point is actually more similar this year than it was last year. This year the difference between his curve and sinker release points is +0.21, Sept of last year it was +0.3. Is it normal for pitchers to have that large of a gap between release points? Is it possible that grouping them closer together and releasing lower in a concious decision vs trying to be comfortable when throwing?
So many questions…
If you look at release points by inning, his release points to gradually dip through the 6th, then starts to rise in the 7th. You’d think that if his release point was dipping as the regular season progressed, that it could be due to fatigue, but we see the opposite after he pitches the 7th inning. Last year, he pitched into the 7th 14 times, and twice in 2013 and this year so far.
Eno,
Was the “yes” for the gio/Duda trade?
Great analysis!
Eno- is it crazy to ask if you would rather have Alex Wood or Drew Hutchison? I’m in a 10-team where QS count over wins. Rest of staff is Harvey, McHugh, Richards, G. Cole, and Salazar. If Hutch goes out there and rocks it tonight against Boston, am I totally delusional in thinking he is a better add? Thank you!
Don’t forget, BB247, that Hutchinson will generally face much better offensive teams. Thus, fewer quality starts.
Thanks, Jim. I’m taking that into account. I have just been so underwhelmed with Wood, and Hutch is starting to look like the guy I thought he was/is. Probably will hold on Wood for a bit longer….probably just long enough to lose out on Hutch!
Tonight for Hutch: 4 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs against the BoSox. Oh, and five walks.
Yep. Watched it. It was as bad as it sounds, too.
Was offered Buchholz for my Wood, straight up. Buchholz is showing insane peripherals right now. Do I take?