The Daily Grind: Odorizzi, Wandy, Guerrero

Agenda

1. Daily DFS – Odorizzi
2. GB / FB Splits
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wandy, Latos, Guerrero, Lagares
4. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – Odorizzi

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Just like yesterday, the games in Boston and Cleveland inexplicably start at 6:10 ET. I hope you didn’t want to stack Blue Jays, Red Sox, or Indians.

Late: We have something of a quandary on our hands. Jake Odorizzi has a 1.65 ERA on the season. His 2.46 FIP is a little more sane. His 3.86 xFIP is a lot more sane. He’s held hitters to no home runs and a .169 BABIP. His swinging strike rate is a lofty 11.2 percent despite just 7.24 K/9. He has a 42.3 percent ground ball rate – a career best by a wide margin.

He’ll play tonight at hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. He’s opposed by a stack of hitters who feast on fly ball pitching. I recommended the Yankees against Odorizzi on April 18, and he allowed three runs with nine strikeouts in six innings. I still like the matchup, but I also understand if you prefer to target a weaker pitcher.

Stack Targets: Chase Whitley, Kyle Lohse, David Phelps, Ross Detwiler, Jeff Locke, Travis Wood, Mike Pelfrey, Severino Gonzalez, Kyle Kendrick, Jered Weaver

2. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have a list of 32 players today, some of whom won’t actually start. Below are my favorites.

Chris Carter vs. Tyson Ross
A.J. Pollock vs. Kendrick
Garrett Jones, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Chase Headley vs. Odorizzi

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wandy, Latos, Guerrero, Lagares

Pitchers to Start: You probably shouldn’t rush to the waiver wire to grab Wandy Rodriguez, but I do want to discuss him today. He’s opposed by the Mariners and Felix Hernandez tomorrow. A victory is unlikely.

In his 2015 debut, Rodriguez displayed the same stuff that made him a reliable innings eater from 2007 through 2012. He’s missed most of the last two seasons with various injuries. At least two clubs – the Phillies and Braves – were too concerned by his medicals to include him in their plans.

Going forward, he’s a name to watch for deep league owners. He’s unlikely to get much run support on a broken Rangers roster. He won’t strike out a ton of hitters or pitch beyond the sixth inning very often. What he might provide is a 3.60 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. Find the right match – i.e. a heavily left-handed lineup – and he’s a viable stream option.

Also consider: Aaron Harang, Jesse Hahn

Pitchers to Exploit: After a terrible start to the 2015 campaign, Mat Latos has settled in with a couple solid outings. He’s skewed towards an extreme fly ball profile in four starts. His velocity remains down from his career peak at 90.7 mph.

Marlins Stadium should help to keep the ball in play tomorrow. However, the spacious outfield can make it easier to rally. The numbers say Latos should be fine. His 7.31 ERA belies a 3.46 FIP. I haven’t seen his two most recent starts, but he looked terrible in the first two.

Also consider: Matt Garza, Chris Tillman, Ryan Vogelsong

Hitters (power): The Dodgers are mixing in Alex Guerrero whenever they can. He’ll now steal reps from Carl Crawford in addition to Juan Uribe and Howie Kendrick. If he plays tomorrow, he’ll see Ryan Vogelsong. Guerrero is hitting .500/.500/1.273 in 24 plate appearances. Let’s just say I don’t buy his .773 ISO.

I see him as a league average hitter, which is less than ZiPS and Steamer project. However, it’s worth noting that I don’t have any special insight into Guerrero. I’ll ask Dan about his swing.

Also consider: Josh Reddick, Rickie Weeks, Justin Ruggiano, Wilson Ramos

Hitters (speed): I hyped Juan Lagares over the offseason, but he’s off to a slow start offensively. Once you consider his .403 BABIP, his .316/.329/.367 line is disappointing. Lagares looks like he should have 10 to 15 home run power, but it’s yet to show up in game action. He talked about running more this year, yet that isn’t happening either.

I know a lot of Mets fans hope he’ll become a leadoff hitter. I’m starting to think he’s an outfield version of Andrelton Simmons. If so, he’ll remain towards the bottom of the lineup.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Ichiro Suzuki, Adam Eaton, Dalton Pompey

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link. Thanks to some cool weather, the games are skewed towards pitcher friendly tonight.

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