Routes to Hitter Production

In addition to fantasy baseball, I am a huge fan of FPL, or Fantasy Premier League in the EPL; the formats, scoring, and functions are so different that there is little crossover in strategy. But I do find more macro approaches particularly helpful that I apply across sports. There is the concept in FPL of attacking players with multiple ‘routes to points.‘ Being able to access points in a variety of ways obviously increases the floor of a player, as they have more avenues to score.

Due to scoring differences in traditional roto leagues, the points aspect does not really apply, but having the ability to contribute to multiple categories, whatever they may be, can similarly make a hitter extremely valuable. Borrowing the scouting jargon of ‘tools’, I have looked to apply this to fantasy baseball, and the tools can then apply to whatever your format may be.

So this page below is designed to help identify players that can offer value and be plus players in multiple categories. Rather than just using outcomes like RBIs, home runs, runs, etc. I have applied some metrics that could suggest production in a particular category, with the task of finding batters that can provide value across categories or points systems.

• P – Power: I have gone with xSLG, maybe the obvious choice, but I had also strongly considered Barrel%, which is also a strong indicator of power potential. But xSLG just edged out as a metric for more home run potential.
• S – Speed: Now, here is the only instance where I have just used the outcome of stolen bases (or stolen base rate). This seemed more appropriate, as both game speed and the ability to have fantasy value by stealing bases without having elite speed (looking at you, Josh Naylor) count. Stolen bases will also reward those who are able to use elite speed to steal bases like Chandler Simpson.
• D – Discipline: While average is often used as a category, plate discipline is certainly, in my opinion, a route to fantasy production that can be useful across formats, so for this I just took straight BB%.
• H – Hit: For the ability to hit and contribute in AVG, runs, and RBIs, I have gone with xwOBA. While team context, lineups, and other variables will have a big impact on these categories, that can be crystallized with a strong xwOBA.

For a hitter to qualify as obtaining a tool, they will have to finish in the top third of each band. I took the top-third mark of that metric for hitters with 400 PA or more. As the pool is cut at 150 PA to qualify, hitters with less than 400 PA just have to clear that mark set by the 400 PA threshold.

For example, the threshold for top third xSLG production is 0.439 across 400 PA to qualify as a power bat. Spencer Jones, with an xSLG of .455, qualifies despite only having 289 PA. This method kept the threshold to qualify reasonable but still allowed hitters who may not have reached the playing time to qualify. I will give the rest of the thresholds below.

You can view the rate stats, as well as the Steamer projection, by clicking the “+ Rate stats” and “+2027 Proj” buttons. To see specific tools, you can select any combination of tools by selecting the letter. Multiple tools can be selected to show hitters that qualify for those tools.

You can filter by position, and draft value is taken from recently released NFBC ADP, but as it’s so early, I would only take this as a benchmark at this stage. It is also possible to search for any specific player and select hitters with minimum tools.

The table is large, so it is scrollable both vertically and horizontally, and I will leave a link to the table to view in full screen if that is convenient:

Full-screen table here.

The 4-Tool Bats

Eight of the nine guys who were able to qualify as 4-tool hitters will come as no surprise. They all posted 20+ stolen bases, 18 to 45 home runs, and excellent xwOBA above the .340 range. The early ADPs reflect that, and the ability to provide production in almost all categories will cost you early draft capital. The one surprising name that qualified was World Series winner Garrett Mitchell. Despite offering multiple routes to production, his early ADP is in the 200s. Now, before we get too ahead of ourselves, there is good reason for his ADP. While he did meet the qualifiers I imposed and has potential in each category, there are limitations that the others do not have.

He hit 11 HR in 531 PA with a .416 actual SLG. The .447 xSLG says his contact quality and 11.7% barrel rate deserved more, but the homers never came due to his hitting approach, hitting a ton of ground balls and more opposite-field or centre than pulled. The 2027 projection is similar: 487 PA, 13 HR, .404 SLG, .160 ISO, .325 wOBA, 15 SB, and .245 AVG. This is a productive hitter but closer to league average than the other eight in this group. Mitchell was able to qualify by barely edging the xSLG cutoff by .008 and clearing the stolen-base rate cutoff, with his 14 steals in 531 PA landing in the top third.

Still, he offers good value if not top-tier production, and is able to contribute across multiple categories regardless.

Potential Value

To address the names at value with the potential to cover multiple categories, there are some intriguing options. These are a selection of hitters with 3-plus tools and outside the top 100 early ADP.

The mix features some more seasoned bats, looking for bounce-back seasons like Pasquantino, and Trout and Muncy will be looking to continue their success from last year. The younger guys are of particular interest to me. Eldridge and Murakami are two young first basemen who have already made themselves the cornerstones of their respective lineups, and I think their current ADP is great value, although that might shift. Hernández could provide great value and is projected to feature in the middle of a young Marlins lineup. If he can make the leap, he could be a great value option that can help contribute to multiple categories, including stolen bases. This table also provides a nice microcosm of how hard speed is to come by attached to multiple tools.

Infielders at a Premium

There is not a lot of depth in the infield when it comes to covering yourself in multiple categories, particularly in the middle infield positions where there will be a premium on the three-plus tool bats. Of the 44 three-plus-tool hitters, 20 are outfielders, 19 qualify at DH, and 13 play first base. The rest are scarce: six at third, five at catcher, four at second, three at short (a player with eligibility at multiple positions is counted at each one). At shortstop, that crop is Witt, Elly, and Kevin McGonigle at pick 47, and the names after it are single-category types: CJ Abrams and Trea Turner for steals, Mookie Betts for average. Abrams, you may be surprised to see as a single-category bat, but his home run production ran way above what his xSLG and Barrel% projected. But he offers a lot more value given his age than Betts and Turner.

Second base has Tatis and Turang up top, then a run of one- and two-tool bats like Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe, and Jazz Chisholm before the next three-tool option, Curtis Mead, at 184. So there are decent options in these middle rounds, but it is not as deep as the outfield or first base, where you can cover yourself in multiple categories. Curtis Mead is certainly an intriguing option if he can establish himself in Boston’s lineup.