Rotographs Rankings First Run – Starting Pitchers

Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning. 

We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

  • Outfielder (Jan. 18)
  • Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20-today)
  • Shortstop (Jan. 22)
  • First Base (Jan. 25)
  • Catcher (Jan. 26)
  • Second Base (Jan. 27)
  • Third Base (Jan. 28)
  • DH (Jan. 29)
  • Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.

We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!

Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.

The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 266 for Jeff, 153 for Zach, 187 for Dan, 151 for Mike, 154 for Brad, 231 for myself, and 155 for Paul K.

Key:

  • AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

Brad made this comment below and I don’t want to speak for anyone else but myself, but I wouldn’t be surprised if all of the rankers felt similarly. Maybe not with the exact range (5-18), but something very close.

It’s probably worth pointing out that I don’t discern much difference between pitchers #5 and #18 on my list. They could be listed in any order without so much as a nitpick from me.

Starting Pitchers – January Edition
 RK Player Jeff Zach Dan Mike Brad Paul S Paul K AVG Adj. AVG SPLIT
1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 0
2 Max Scherzer 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2.3 2.2 1
3 Chris Sale 3 3 3 3 4 4 2 3.1 3.2 2
4 David Price 4 5 4 6 9 8 6 6.0 5.8 5
5 Jake Arrieta 7 4 7 8 2 11 5 6.3 6.2 9
6 Jose Fernandez 9 7 8 5 7 6 7 7.0 7.0 4
7 Corey Kluber 6 9 6 4 13 7 4 7.0 6.4 9
8 Madison Bumgarner 5 6 5 9 11 5 13 7.7 7.2 8
9 Matt Harvey 10 12 11 7 17 3 9 9.9 9.8 14
10 Stephen Strasburg 8 10 9 11 18 9 11 10.9 10.0 10
11 Jacob deGrom 12 8 14 10 10 10 12 10.9 10.8 6
12 Zack Greinke 14 14 10 15 5 16 10 12.0 12.6 11
13 Felix Hernandez 15 13 13 12 8 14 14 12.7 13.2 7
14 Carlos Carrasco 13 15 12 13 16 13 8 12.9 13.2 8
15 Dallas Keuchel 18 11 18 14 6 19 18 14.9 15.8 13
16 Gerrit Cole 17 17 17 16 14 12 15 15.4 15.8 5
17 Chris Archer 16 18 16 19 15 15 17 16.6 16.4 4
18 Jon Lester 11 19 15 18 19 23 16 17.3 17.4 12
19 Noah Syndergaard 20 16 20 17 12 17 20 17.4 18.0 8
20 Johnny Cueto 19 24 19 20 21 24 32 22.7 21.6 13
21 Tyson Ross 23 22 26 27 24 30 19 24.4 24.4 11
22 Cole Hamels 24 26 28 22 25 22 26 24.7 24.6 6
23 Masahiro Tanaka 21 20 21 21 42 28 21 24.9 22.4 22
24 Danny Salazar 26 27 24 26 28 18 30 25.6 26.2 12
25 Francisco Liriano 22 23 23 35 27 31 24 26.4 25.6 13
26 Adam Wainwright 32 28 27 30 20 26 25 26.9 27.2 12
27 Sonny Gray 41 25 31 24 23 25 27 28.0 26.4 18
28 Garrett Richards 37 32 34 29 41 21 31 32.1 32.6 20
29 Michael Pineda 25 30 22 25 52 48 28 32.9 31.2 30
30 Jeff Samardzija 27 40 25 28 38 36 43 33.9 33.8 18
31 Marcus Stroman 34 38 44 31 31 29 33 34.3 33.4 15
32 Hisashi Iwakuma 43 35 29 23 57 42 22 35.9 34.4 35
33 Jose Quintana 33 29 39 59 32 38 29 37.0 34.2 30
34 Jake Odorizzi 39 39 40 43 33 27 40 37.3 38.2 16
35 Scott Kazmir 40 33 32 38 39 41 44 38.1 38.2 12
36 Michael Wacha 51 48 33 33 40 20 45 38.6 39.8 31
37 Carlos Martinez 48 45 45 37 22 39 34 38.6 40.0 26
38 Yu Darvish 30 21 36 68 26 74 23 39.7 36.6 53
39 James Shields 29 31 37 47 62 40 36 40.3 38.2 33
40 Yordano Ventura 28 41 35 53 55 44 37 41.9 42.0 27
41 Justin Verlander 44 58 48 34 34 32 52 43.1 42.4 26
42 Taijuan Walker 36 34 38 51 53 43 51 43.7 43.8 19
43 Raisel Iglesias 38 44 43 42 51 51 38 43.9 43.6 13
44 Wei-Yin Chen 35 36 42 67 56 34 39 44.1 41.6 33
45 Jordan Zimmermann 50 50 49 54 29 33 53 45.4 47.0 25
46 Collin McHugh 42 53 46 40 46 46 49 46.0 45.8 13
47 John Lackey 31 43 41 58 35 80 35 46.1 42.4 49
48 Lance McCullers 46 37 55 63 37 47 41 46.6 45.2 26
49 Patrick Corbin 61 42 47 57 43 37 54 48.7 48.6 24
50 Drew Smyly 45 49 30 36 67 58 57 48.9 49.0 37
51 Gio Gonzalez 54 55 57 41 45 56 46 50.6 51.2 16
52 Andrew Cashner 56 61 59 44 49 50 42 51.6 51.6 19
53 Clay Buchholz 53 54 54 55 36 70 47 52.7 52.6 34
54 Luis Severino 66 52 60 48 30 62 56 53.4 55.6 36
55 Julio Teheran 55 59 58 39 64 35 72 54.6 55.0 37
56 Steven Matz 60 47 51 52 65 54 55 54.9 54.4 18
57 Kyle Hendricks 49 57 53 45 63 91 50 58.3 54.4 46
58 Ian Kennedy 47 60 73 50 54 60 68 58.9 58.4 26
59 Mike Fiers 59 56 52 49 72 68 69 60.7 60.8 23
60 Carlos Rodon 58 67 64 80 71 45 48 61.9 61.6 35
61 Jason Hammel 57 46 56 62 74 78 62 62.1 62.2 32
62 Shelby Miller 69 79 67 61 50 49 66 63.0 62.6 30
63 Aaron Nola 67 66 66 60 69 52 61 63.0 64.0 17
64 Anibal Sanchez 63 68 63 66 68 67 58 64.7 65.4 10
65 Rich Hill 62 62 68 32 79 94 64 65.9 67.0 62
66 Kevin Gausman 65 51 65 65 85 71 63 66.4 65.8 34
67 Brett Anderson 79 75 75 84 59 76 60 72.6 73.0 25
68 Anthony DeSclafani 64 63 70 72 88 82 71 72.9 71.8 25
69 Jaime Garcia 99 64 61 56 73 90 74 73.9 72.4 43
70 Rick Porcello 52 83 74 86 78 72 73 74.0 76.0 34
71 Joe Ross 102 71 69 64 90 53 75 74.9 73.8 49
72 Jimmy Nelson 73 86 118 69 70 57 59 76.0 71.4 61
73 Derek Holland 72 65 90 109 75 63 65 77.0 73.4 46
74 Eduardo Rodriguez 88 84 79 95 60 55 83 77.7 78.8 40
75 Hyun-Jin Ryu 124 72 62 46 48 118 76 78.0 75.2 78
76 Kenta Maeda 68 76 50 70 83 59 145 78.7 71.2 95
77 Andrew Heaney 101 77 80 90 61 65 78 78.9 78.0 40
78 Nathan Eovaldi 96 73 101 96 47 73 70 79.4 81.6 54
79 Marco Estrada 100 69 88 74 66 85 84 80.9 80.0 34
80 Mike Leake 74 88 87 103 86 64 67 81.3 80.4 39
81 Phil Hughes 70 81 93 82 108 102 77 87.6 87.0 38
82 J.A. Happ 71 70 77 106 116 96 82 88.3 86.4 46
83 Robbie Ray 105 103 81 81 58 105 90 89.0 92.0 47
84 Wade Miley 82 98 107 93 76 103 80 91.3 91.2 31
85 Alex Wood 91 100 71 99 82 114 95 93.1 93.4 43
86 Nate Karns 118 74 82 77 120 75 110 93.7 92.4 46
87 Jesse Hahn 121 107 83 73 103 87 85 94.1 93.0 48
88 Jake Peavy 80 90 84 76 109 111 121 95.9 94.8 45
89 Ubaldo Jimenez 75 133 113 91 91 100 79 97.4 94.8 58
90 Matt Moore 106 106 96 79 132 61 103 97.6 98.0 71
91 Trevor Bauer 107 93 122 78 96 81 119 99.4 99.2 44
92 Erasmo Ramirez 114 80 102 71 128 69 133 99.6 99.0 64
93 Jeremy Hellickson 77 102 100 92 99 141 93 100.6 97.2 64
94 Edinson Volquez 89 92 133 102 84 98 107 100.7 97.6 49
95 Jesse Chavez 81 99 76 101 118 142 92 101.3 98.2 66
96 Yovani Gallardo 113 97 137 122 93 66 86 102.0 102.2 71
97 Rubby de la Rosa 110 115 115 89 100 84 102 102.1 103.2 31
98 Ervin Santana 93 111 134 94 104 77 104 102.4 101.2 57
99 John Lamb 92 89 72 132 135 107 111 105.4 106.2 63
100 C.J. Wilson 76 101 108 119 125 113 97 105.6 107.6 49
101 Hector Santiago 94 91 104 140 111 95 108 106.1 102.4 49
102 Kris Medlen 85 87 99 141 123 92 120 106.7 104.2 56
103 Kyle Gibson 117 153 160 85 77 79 81 107.4 103.0 83
104 Josh Tomlin 98 82 86 104 89 203 91 107.6 93.6 121
105 Jerad Eickhoff 126 78 112 133 97 106 109 108.7 110.0 55
106 Mat Latos 84 85 95 143 110 154 96 109.6 105.8 70
107 Matt Cain 119 116 106 83 130 110 115 111.3 113.2 47
108 Jorge de la Rosa 78 114 129 111 133 130 87 111.7 114.2 55
109 Martin Perez 87 108 121 123 138 119 88 112.0 111.8 51
110 Chris Tillman 95 135 162 120 94 83 117 115.1 112.2 79
111 Chris Heston 142 95 98 107 113 143 113 115.9 114.6 48
112 Daniel Norris 130 113 136 129 98 99 116 117.3 117.4 38
113 Jonathan Gray 86 109 128 151 139 125 89 118.1 118.0 65
114 Bartolo Colon 109 105 89 142 137 138 112 118.9 120.2 53
115 Zack Wheeler 143 96 117 118 102 160 105 120.1 117.0 64
116 Alex Cobb 140 119 123 105 44 213 101 120.7 117.6 169
117 Matt Shoemaker 146 134 111 112 95 121 127 120.9 121.0 51
118 Drew Hutchison 157 121 130 88 126 101 124 121.0 120.4 69
119 Danny Duffy 97 110 109 135 105 158 134 121.1 118.6 61
120 Jose Berrios 112 117 114 151 121 122 114 121.6 117.6 39
121 CC Sabathia 111 94 119 131 106 199 94 122.0 112.2 105
122 R.A. Dickey 90 150 151 75 140 120 130 122.3 126.0 76
123 Joe Kelly 150 136 116 136 81 115 123 122.4 125.2 69
124 Jon Niese 125 120 147 121 129 116 99 122.4 122.2 48
125 Homer Bailey 120 151 103 117 117 134 126 124.0 122.8 48
126 Robbie Erlin 103 132 92 147 134 137 135 125.7 128.2 55
127 Mike Foltynewicz 83 104 91 144 154 176 132 126.3 125.0 93
128 Matthew Wisler 104 153 146 113 154 97 129 128.0 129.0 57
129 Jeff Locke 115 118 141 108 154 175 100 130.1 127.2 75
130 James Paxton 178 153 164 87 87 108 138 130.7 130.0 91
131 Wily Peralta 138 128 175 149 112 136 106 134.9 132.6 69
132 Vincent Velasquez 144 137 140 151 141 88 155 136.6 142.6 67
133 Chris Young 128 124 169 130 127 133 155 138.0 134.6 45
134 Chase Anderson 170 146 132 151 119 117 137 138.9 137.0 53
135 Taylor Jungmann 153 143 181 151 114 93 139 139.1 140.0 88
136 Charlie Morton 123 149 143 100 154 150 155 139.1 143.8 55
137 Lucas Giolito 122 153 187 151 136 112 118 139.9 136.0 75
138 Tom Koehler 116 122 170 137 146 135 155 140.1 139.0 54
139 Jered Weaver 127 148 157 97 151 165 143 141.1 145.2 68
140 Tyler Skaggs 165 126 144 151 154 109 150 142.7 145.0 56
141 Doug Fister 136 138 161 151 124 153 136 142.7 142.8 37
142 Matt Garza 135 153 173 115 154 144 141 145.0 145.4 58
143 Chad Bettis 129 139 171 151 152 149 125 145.1 144.0 46
144 Kendall Graveman 152 130 179 124 153 139 140 145.3 142.8 55
145 Nicholas Tropeano 171 153 127 151 122 151 147 146.0 145.8 49
146 Henry Owens 208 153 187 151 92 89 151 147.3 146.8 119
147 Tyler Duffey 179 153 158 151 80 155 155 147.3 154.4 99
148 Miguel Gonzalez 141 129 175 126 154 157 155 148.1 147.2 49
149 Marco Gonzales 176 153 139 151 131 140 152 148.9 147.0 45
150 Jarred Cosart 131 125 172 125 154 190 149 149.4 146.2 65
151 Roenis Elias 134 153 155 151 143 156 155 149.6 151.4 22
152 Tommy Milone 160 152 187 116 154 126 155 150.0 149.4 71
153 Mark Buehrle 108 153 166 151 154 166 155 150.4 155.8 58
154 Trevor May 266 153 94 145 154 145 98 150.7 139.0 172
155 Brandon Finnegan 155 153 187 151 154 104 155 151.3 153.6 83
156 Blake Snell 133 153 187 151 154 127 155 151.4 149.2 60
157 Adam Conley 184 153 187 151 154 86 155 152.9 159.4 101
158 Chris Bassitt 145 147 156 151 154 162 155 152.9 152.6 17
159 Brandon McCarthy 186 142 149 110 148 182 153 152.9 154.8 76
160 David Phelps 139 123 150 151 154 231 131 154.1 145.0 108
161 Kyle Lohse 137 153 174 151 154 170 155 156.3 156.6 37
162 Yusmeiro Petit 266 112 120 151 154 169 128 157.1 144.4 154
163 Tanner Roark 266 153 124 138 154 147 122 157.7 143.2 144
164 Julio Urias 166 153 167 151 154 161 155 158.1 157.8 16
165 Dan Straily 159 153 125 151 154 218 148 158.3 153.0 93
166 Colby Lewis 177 153 184 114 154 177 155 159.1 163.2 70
167 Tyler Glasnow 266 153 135 151 142 124 146 159.6 145.4 142
168 Ivan Nova 172 144 187 151 154 172 142 160.3 158.6 45
169 Scott Feldman 151 153 176 127 154 210 155 160.9 157.8 83
170 Erik Johnson 174 140 187 139 101 231 155 161.0 159.0 130
171 Jameson Taillon 266 153 138 134 154 129 155 161.3 146.8 137
172 Michael Lorenzen 147 153 177 151 154 192 155 161.3 158.0 45
173 Colin Rea 132 153 154 151 154 231 155 161.4 153.4 99
174 Shane Greene 185 153 186 151 154 148 155 161.7 159.6 38
175 Archie Bradley 214 153 187 151 154 123 155 162.4 160.0 91
176 Tim Lincecum 168 153 187 151 145 181 155 162.9 161.6 42
177 Zachary Davies 158 127 187 151 154 208 155 162.9 161.0 81
178 Shaun Marcum 148 153 148 151 154 231 155 162.9 152.2 83
179 Brett Oberholtzer 198 153 187 151 115 183 155 163.1 165.8 83
180 Dylan Bundy 266 153 131 98 154 186 155 163.3 155.8 168
181 Matt Boyd 182 153 185 151 107 223 155 165.1 165.2 116
182 Ricky Nolasco 161 153 187 148 154 205 155 166.1 162.0 57
183 Alfredo Simon 149 153 178 151 149 231 154 166.4 157.0 82
184 Drew Pomeranz 266 153 78 128 154 231 155 166.4 164.2 188
185 Tyler Lyons 266 153 97 146 154 196 155 166.7 160.8 169
186 Williams Perez 163 153 187 151 154 209 155 167.4 162.4 58
187 Aaron Harang 154 153 182 151 150 231 155 168.0 159.0 81
188 Henderson Alvarez 189 131 180 151 154 217 155 168.1 165.8 86
189 Justin Masterson 156 153 183 151 154 231 155 169.0 160.2 80
190 Cody Anderson 190 153 187 151 154 198 155 169.7 167.8 47
191 John Danks 162 153 187 151 154 231 155 170.4 162.2 80
192 Adam Warren 266 153 187 151 154 128 155 170.6 160.0 138
193 Jordan Lyles 175 141 187 151 154 231 155 170.6 164.4 90
194 Vidal Nuno 266 153 142 151 154 174 155 170.7 157.4 124
195 Carlos Frias 204 153 187 151 154 191 155 170.7 168.0 53
196 Ryan Vogelsong 164 153 187 151 154 231 155 170.7 162.6 80
197 Manny Banuelos 195 153 187 151 154 201 155 170.9 168.8 50
198 Frankie Montas 266 153 187 151 154 131 155 171.0 160.0 135
199 Sean Manaea 266 153 187 151 154 132 155 171.1 160.0 134
200 Tyler Matzek 211 153 187 151 154 187 155 171.1 167.2 60





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

newest oldest most voted
Jeff
Guest
Jeff

Brad has Harvey at 17 and Greinke/Keuchel at 5/6 respectively. Care to explain that? Not trying to nitpick subjective rankings, just curious about this one since I think it’s pretty apparent that Harvey has the better stuff, and will return a higher K/9. Is it just the injury potential? And if so, why not factor that into Strasburg’s ranking?

KJL
Member
Member
KJL

I was just about to ask about Keuchel and Greinke as well.

Brad Johnson
Member
Member

It’s all about the innings count. And to be honest, there’s probably some room for fine tuning. At the elite end of the scale, innings totals are quite important. Strasburg and Harvey I see as 180 to 200 projections while I’m comfortable expecting 200-240 from Keuchel/Greinke.

Why’s that important? It condenses the quality of a single roster spot, making it easier for me to use more elite non-CL relievers. Every Carter Capps and Dellin Betances I can squeeze onto the roster for a song will get me that much closer to ratios victory. Granted, I can also try the same tact with Harvey’s superior K rate, but I don’t often find myself going in that direction. Or I could hope to get 220 IP from Harvey with the Mets not microing his innings.

It’s probably worth pointing out that I don’t discern much difference between pitchers #5 and #18 on my list. They could be listed in any order without so much as a nitpick from me.