Rotographs Rankings First Run – Outfielders

by
January 18, 2016

Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning. 

We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still superstars on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!

Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.

The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 152 for Zach, 151 for Dan, 177 for Mike, 184 for myself, and 151 for Paul K. Jeff’s system had a super-deep list so he was all good here.

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Key:

  • AVG – just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • Adj. AVG – the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT – the difference between the high and low rankings

Outfielders – January Edition
RK  Player Jeff Zach Dan Mike Brad Paul S Paul K AVG Adj. AVG SPLIT
1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1.1 1.0 1
2 Bryce Harper 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2.0 2.0 2
3 Giancarlo Stanton 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 3.0 3.0 2
4 Andrew McCutchen 8 4 5 4 3 5 4 4.7 4.4 5
5 Mookie Betts 4 6 8 5 6 4 6 5.6 5.4 4
6 Kris Bryant 5 8 4 6 5 7 5 5.7 5.6 4
7 A.J. Pollock 13 5 6 9 8 6 8 7.9 7.4 8
8 Starling Marte 6 9 7 7 11 16 12 9.7 9.2 10
9 Jose Bautista 12 13 12 11 9 8 7 10.3 10.4 6
10 Charlie Blackmon 7 7 9 14 14 11 13 10.7 10.8 7
11 Ryan Braun 9 10 16 8 12 12 10 11.0 10.6 8
12 George Springer 11 15 19 10 7 10 9 11.6 11.0 12
13 Nelson Cruz 20 12 11 17 17 9 11 13.9 13.6 11
14 J.D. Martinez 22 17 13 20 10 15 16 16.1 16.2 12
15 Jason Heyward 14 14 14 13 20 23 15 16.1 15.4 10
16 Justin Upton 15 19 20 19 16 14 14 16.7 16.6 6
17 Adam Jones 16 11 17 16 22 21 23 18.0 18.4 12
18 Lorenzo Cain 23 18 10 26 21 13 18 18.4 18.6 16
19 Carlos Gomez 18 21 24 12 13 17 24 18.4 18.6 12
20 Yoenis Cespedes 17 16 15 21 27 24 19 19.9 19.4 12
21 Chris Davis 29 23 18 15 15 22 22 20.6 20.0 14
22 Carlos Gonzalez 26 22 21 22 19 18 21 21.3 21.0 8
23 Corey Dickerson 27 20 28 23 24 19 17 22.6 22.6 11
24 Yasiel Puig 25 29 23 27 25 26 25 25.7 25.6 6
25 Christian Yelich 21 30 22 32 33 25 28 27.3 27.4 12
26 Jacoby Ellsbury 19 27 25 25 26 38 35 27.9 27.6 19
27 Billy Hamilton 10 24 26 18 31 47 39 27.9 27.6 37
28 Gregory Polanco 24 26 27 24 49 30 31 30.1 27.6 25
29 Hanley Ramirez 34 41 29 29 35 27 26 31.6 30.8 15
30 Adam Eaton 36 33 37 33 36 28 30 33.3 33.6 9
31 Hunter Pence 38 46 41 38 30 20 27 34.3 34.8 26
32 Joc Pederson 31 40 39 35 39 29 29 34.6 34.6 11
33 Matt Kemp 40 32 30 30 45 31 34 34.6 33.4 15
34 Kyle Schwarber 56 37 33 31 18 49 20 34.9 34.0 38
35 Shin-Soo Choo 39 39 31 36 41 33 32 35.9 35.8 10
36 Ben Revere 35 25 45 28 46 43 44 38.0 39.0 21
37 David Peralta 37 34 38 51 42 35 36 39.0 37.6 17
38 Khris Davis 32 31 34 40 67 45 40 41.3 38.2 36
39 Matt Holliday 44 62 32 42 44 37 33 42.0 40.0 30
40 Brett Gardner 47 36 50 39 29 54 41 42.3 42.6 25
41 Brandon Belt 50 54 47 45 23 41 37 42.4 44.0 31
42 Kole Calhoun 43 38 40 37 32 58 57 43.6 43.0 26
43 Billy Burns 33 35 55 43 50 52 42 44.3 44.4 22
44 Curtis Granderson 48 49 52 47 34 42 43 45.0 45.8 18
45 Delino DeShields 28 28 42 34 69 76 50 46.7 44.6 48
46 Alex Gordon 52 48 44 41 28 63 52 46.9 47.4 35
47 Melky Cabrera 41 43 35 46 58 56 60 48.4 48.8 25
48 Michael Conforto 69 53 59 55 38 34 38 49.4 48.6 35
49 Mark Trumbo 30 42 36 48 82 53 56 49.6 47.0 52
50 Jay Bruce 42 44 52 44 68 46 61 51.0 49.4 26
51 Kevin Pillar 51 45 57 54 66 36 51 51.4 51.6 30
52 Evan Gattis 53 56 48 52 51 51 55 52.3 52.4 8
53 Randal Grichuk 49 60 54 53 48 50 54 52.6 52.0 12
54 Wil Myers 46 55 49 56 73 39 53 53.0 51.8 34
55 Ben Zobrist 54 57 43 50 37 64 66 53.0 53.6 29
56 Jorge Soler 68 79 51 49 47 32 58 54.9 54.6 47
57 Josh Reddick 55 51 55 58 40 65 65 55.6 56.8 25
58 Josh Harrison 45 50 46 59 61 67 67 56.4 56.6 22
59 Dexter Fowler 65 58 73 61 52 40 62 58.7 59.6 33
60 Marcell Ozuna 58 47 58 57 71 57 72 60.0 60.2 25
61 Denard Span 62 52 63 62 79 55 63 62.3 61.0 27
62 Michael Brantley 76 71 66 65 53 48 59 62.6 62.8 28
63 Steven Souza 66 65 68 63 57 66 64 64.1 64.8 11
64 Carlos Beltran 67 64 62 64 65 70 74 66.6 66.0 12
65 Odubel Herrera 83 61 87 75 59 44 69 68.3 69.4 43
66 Stephen Piscotty 88 72 76 71 43 62 68 68.6 69.8 45
67 Nori Aoki 63 67 70 70 78 61 73 68.9 68.6 17
68 Kevin Kiermaier 64 68 65 72 87 60 75 70.1 68.8 27
69 Byron Buxton 59 69 72 60 80 78 77 70.7 71.2 21
70 Domingo Santana 60 63 61 69 85 82 81 71.6 71.2 25
71 Jayson Werth 80 93 67 76 54 59 76 72.1 71.6 39
72 Eddie Rosario 61 70 69 78 63 87 78 72.3 71.6 26
73 Gerardo Parra 77 73 75 73 60 72 79 72.7 74.0 19
74 Ender Inciarte 92 59 96 77 62 71 80 76.7 76.4 37
75 Avisail Garcia 57 66 60 74 106 86 89 76.9 75.0 49
76 Rusney Castillo 97 83 85 66 74 73 70 78.3 77.0 31
77 Brandon Moss 99 77 99 82 55 69 71 78.9 79.6 44
78 Brad Miller 94 76 97 86 70 74 82 82.7 82.4 27
79 Colby Rasmus 85 88 89 88 76 75 81 83.1 83.6 14
80 Desmond Jennings 71 94 79 67 109 85 84 84.1 82.6 42
81 Josh Hamilton 75 86 64 80 94 105 85 84.1 84.0 41
82 Austin Jackson 73 102 77 81 77 100 96 86.6 86.2 29
83 Adam Duvall 72 80 74 79 93 112 97 86.7 84.6 40
84 Jarrod Dyson 70 74 93 68 119 104 83 87.3 84.8 51
85 Jackie Bradley Jr. 95 75 83 91 99 84 86 87.6 87.8 24
86 Anthony Gose 74 85 84 89 103 89 90 87.7 87.4 29
87 Mike Napoli 90 82 91 84 72 97 98 87.7 88.8 26
88 Cameron Maybin 89 96 94 93 75 77 93 88.1 89.2 21
89 Michael Taylor 78 98 81 94 104 79 94 89.7 89.2 26
90 Aaron Altherr 102 78 109 92 64 93 95 90.4 92.0 45
91 Danny Valencia 96 89 95 85 56 110 104 90.7 93.8 54
92 Yasmany Tomas 81 95 71 90 102 109 88 90.9 91.2 38
93 Leonys Martin 79 103 92 97 98 88 87 92.0 92.4 24
94 Nick Markakis 84 84 78 87 91 118 105 92.4 90.2 40
95 Andre Ethier 105 90 101 98 88 81 92 93.6 93.8 24
96 Mark Canha 86 87 82 95 108 114 108 97.1 96.8 32
97 Chris Colabello 109 81 100 99 96 115 109 101.3 102.6 34
98 Marlon Byrd 101 125 98 107 84 102 110 103.9 103.6 41
99 Lonnie Chisenhall 98 101 105 106 129 91 100 104.3 102.0 38
100 Rajai Davis 107 97 114 110 110 92 106 105.1 106.0 22
101 John Jaso 93 104 88 104 105 125 118 105.3 104.8 37
102 Hyun Soo Kim 110 99 151 83 126 83 91 106.1 101.8 68
103 Enrique Hernandez 125 105 122 116 107 80 97 107.4 109.4 45
104 Oswaldo Arcia 87 100 86 103 113 147 121 108.1 104.8 61
105 Franklin Gutierrez 117 119 118 113 97 95 101 108.6 109.2 24
106 Ben Paulsen 112 116 117 101 114 98 107 109.3 110.0 19
107 Seth Smith 106 92 106 108 111 122 120 109.3 110.2 30
108 Brandon Guyer 82 109 80 96 100 177 135 111.3 104.4 97
109 Alejandro De Aza 120 91 121 114 120 106 119 113.0 115.8 30
110 Coco Crisp 115 134 115 117 95 119 99 113.4 113.0 39
111 Abraham Almonte 136 122 136 100 118 99 111 117.4 117.4 37
112 Chris Young 100 110 104 109 129 156 122 118.6 114.8 56
113 Steve Pearce 103 128 107 111 101 153 133 119.4 116.4 52
114 Carl Crawford 126 106 128 122 121 123 112 119.7 120.8 22
115 Derek Dietrich 144 130 143 132 86 101 103 119.9 121.8 58
116 Alex Rios 108 139 112 115 92 161 113 120.0 117.4 69
117 Aaron Hicks 192 118 151 134 81 68 102 120.9 117.2 124
118 Adonis Garcia 91 112 90 105 129 179 147 121.9 116.8 89
119 Brock Holt 143 107 138 121 83 139 131 123.1 127.2 60
120 Joey Gallo 127 133 103 124 129 131 124 124.4 127.0 30
121 Gregor Blanco 128 120 127 126 117 124 130 124.6 125.0 13
122 Juan Lagares 121 132 102 119 112 184 114 126.3 119.6 82
123 Jon Jay 134 121 126 133 129 126 126 127.9 128.0 13
124 Nomar Mazara 131 152 151 145 116 90 123 129.7 133.2 62
125 David Murphy 119 117 116 120 129 159 151 130.1 127.2 43




 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

87 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
coreyjroMember since 2020
10 years ago

The formula in the adjusted average column looks off. Harper’s adjusted average should be 2. Pollock’s adjusted average should be 7.4.

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  coreyjro

Thanks! I wasn’t 100% sure how do it in Excel so I looked it up and it turns out the formula I found was bunk. Found another one using TRIMMEAN and it looks right. Updating now.

1
kevinthecomic
10 years ago

WOW, what a cliff at the 24/25 junction. A 4.1 Steamer WAR for Puig to a 3.0 Steamer WAR for Yelich.

-1
Grimm
10 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

Well Dickerson and Cargo are projected for 1.5 and 1.7 Steamer WAR at 22/23, so it’s not like this is linear

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Grimm

WAR isn’t a good measure with regards to judging Coors Field players.

1
Jason BMember since 2017
10 years ago
Reply to  Grimm

Nor is it like WAR provides any sort of especially useful guide to a player’s value in a 5×5 league.

2
LenardMember since 2016
10 years ago

Brad, why so low on Gregory Polanco?

0
mauro1Member since 2016
10 years ago
Reply to  Lenard

Polanco and Trumbo stood out to me on Brad’s rankings.. Would love to get his thoughts on why it shook out like that.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  mauro1

I probably went overboard on Trumbo. It’s complicated to explain completely. In short, I don’t think he has much shelf life left as a MLB hitter.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Lenard

I think you have to project growth to rank Polanco any higher. I’m not. With a lowish OBP, he’s a bottom of the order, speed only hitter with breakout potential. I expect roughly 10 HR, 120 R+RBI, 25 SB, .260 average. Granted, he has a very high floor which is why he’s where he is in my ranks and not lower.

0
TheBach....man
10 years ago

Ryan, How can Hamilton be so high in your rankings. Yes his SB are a difference maker in 1 category, but every other category brings down that category, TREMENDOUSLY!!. I would take the under on every category on the Steamers projections on the guy. ESPECIALLY, BA & Slg%

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  TheBach....man

Do you mean Jeff? Maybe you had Ryan Zimmerman on the brain! 🙂

1
rayguMember since 2024
10 years ago
Reply to  TheBach....man

I agree. Hamilton is more in the 40-50 range for me. He kills you in every category but SBs.

0
TheBach....man
10 years ago

I would also like to know how each of you have fared in your fantasy leagues the last 3 years. Each of you being, Paul S., Jeff, Zach, Mike Dan, brad and Paul K.

1
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  TheBach....man

Hey Bach, if you read our stuff and follow us on Twitter, I think you’ll get a feel for that. We discuss it all the time. I think Brad did a ton of stuff about how he fared in ’15.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  TheBach....man

I publish articles on the topic every fall. Last year was kind of meh (won one, a couple other decent finishes, a couple duds), 2014 was excellent, 2013 was a good year too. You’ll have to search the The Hardball Times archive if you want the find the 2013 accounting.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/accountability-corner-eight-more-leagues/

1
Cory
10 years ago

I assume this is strictly for re-draft purposes?

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Cory

Yes!

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  Cory

Yeah, definitely.

0
Sean
10 years ago

What’s the case for Betts over Bryant? Are their projected values similar enough that they’re interchangeable? Trying to decide between keeping Betts in round 14 or Bryant in round 9. The more projections I see the more I’m getting the feeling that Bryant’s power and lineup situation won’t make up for the value I’m getting with Betts.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Sean

Speaking only for myself, I prefer Mookie’s 5 category production. But yes, I think they’re interchangeable.

I think I agree with your assessment. However, league depth matters. If it’s a 3 OF, 12 team, then you’re going to find amazing OFers regardless. Meanwhile, 3B is a bit thin. A deeper format definitely favors Betts.

-1
Daniel Schwartz
10 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Agreed – Bryant eligible in both of and 3b though?

Betts probably that many rounds later

0
Joel. H
10 years ago

Do you guys think Buxton is the guy who will move up the most from his pre season ranking to his final season rankings? He might get some prospect fatigue that can make him an interesting gamble.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Joel. H

It’s going to depend on his Spring Training performance. That’s why Betts and Bryant went shooting up the boards last year.

0
Doctor of Utter Clarification
10 years ago

Excellent work gentlemen, thank you.

What a depressing group after #15, except for the possible excitement from Cain and Puig.

0
bartelsjason
10 years ago

Will the fences really effect Yelichs value? I know that he hits the ball really really hard, but I also know he usually hits the ball on the ground. Is it feasible for the fences to add any extra value to his numbers, in like 2-3 more HR’s? Just curious what peoples thoughts were.

0
Daniel Schwartz
10 years ago
Reply to  bartelsjason

“Next year”

0
Daniel Schwartz
10 years ago

Boy do I like Lorenzo Cain I guess. I’m siding with Fans this year

0
Jason BMember since 2017
10 years ago
Reply to  Daniel Schwartz

But not with FG writers, who hate the Royals, every one of their players, their management, their ownership, all their trades, and every one of their free agent signings. Probably their spouses, children, and pets, too.

(At least to hear some Royals fans incessantly saying on every Royals-related post…EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.)

2
Gene McCaffrey
10 years ago

Someday someone is going to explain to me why Jason Heyward is the #15 OF when he should be about #50. I mean, what categories does he produce?

1
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Gene McCaffrey

All of them? Literally all of them?

I get your point, he doesn’t stand out anywhere. But slightly above average numbers across 5 categories is valuable. (fwiw, I had him 20th).

0
jimithin9
10 years ago
Reply to  Gene McCaffrey

i totally get the hidden value from 5 category hunter pence kinda value
but i see him getting way overdrafted from contract/cub hype and putting up 10/20 .270

0
rayguMember since 2024
10 years ago
Reply to  Gene McCaffrey

I agree with Gene here. Solid the difference and rank him in the 30-35 range.

0
rayguMember since 2024
10 years ago
Reply to  raygu

split*

0
WillMember since 2019
10 years ago

Do the rankings reflect the players value only as an OF? Or does multi-position eligibility factor in? For instance, the Schwarber ranking doesn’t seem to reflect Catcher eligibility for some rankers, but not others? Or is it that the lower ranking people just not have enough solid evidence yet of his Babe Ruthiness?

0
Daniel Schwartz
10 years ago
Reply to  Will

personally and i’ll assume others did the same, i ranked them in that position excluding their eligibility elsewhere.

0
Ves
10 years ago
Reply to  Will

Brad actually used positional eligibility according to his article which kind of screws up the whole chart.

0
theojdMember since 2023
10 years ago

Jayson Werth 71…That’s a joke right? Would love to here the justification for him being so low. He still gets to bat behind Harper right? Except in the AVG cat, Werth had a fine half season after returning from his injury. He’s still an injury risk, sure, but I’d def rather gamble on him than take many of the players listed in front of him here.

-1
Daniel Schwartz
10 years ago
Reply to  theojd

because papelbon is on the team 😉

1
theojdMember since 2023
10 years ago
Reply to  Daniel Schwartz

so no good reason then? Think you’re all sleepin on him. Not WERTH much to you.

-1
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  theojd

I’m a Werth fan, always have been, but everyone can’t be ranked entirely on their upside. In the last four years he has two half seasons (81 and 88 games), a great-but-shortened 129 gm season, and a fantastic full season in 2014 (147 gms). He’s 37 years old with a litany of injuries. That risk matters and no doubt impacted his ranking. I don’t see a great case to send him shooting up the ranks.

0
theojdMember since 2023
10 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Your ranking was one of the higher ones. I dunno, for me it’s just health, the talent is still there. I’d rather have him than Trumbo, Span, Herrera, and a few others for sure.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

I liked him the most apparently, but he’s still much lower than past years. One issue is his supposed playing time. He’s expected to get inconsistent rest throughout the year which means surprise days on the bench. If you’re not very on top of your lineup, you’ll get stuck with some dead games.

0
rayguMember since 2024
10 years ago

Nice work guys.

Guys I disagree on:

Hamilton/Heyward – too high
Springer – too low. admittedly, I am very high on him.
Kemp/Conforto/Inciarte – too low
I like the KDavis ranking….he could hit 30 bombs this year in a full season of ABs.

1
ScoKo
10 years ago
Reply to  raygu

Agree on Springer. He excites me. Had a 25/25 pace last year, and I have a feeling he was at the beginning of a HR binge when he got hurt and would have topped 25hrs. 36hrs and 21sbs in first 180 career games is impressive, and with the improved contact avg is no longer a burden. I think he goes 30/20 this year, and is a late first rd pick in 2017.

1
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  ScoKo

I have a tough time getting Springer any higher than this with two severely shortened seasons. The contact improved which was nice, but I don’t think we’re out of the woods w/the AVG concern.

I think 12 is still pretty aggressive for someone with a high of 102 games. I totally get the excitement surrounding his profile, though.

0
ScoKo
10 years ago
Reply to  ScoKo

I don’t criticize the rank at all. The 4 guys ranked ahead of him are safer, but I think he has a better chance than they do to finish as a top 1-5 overall fantasy player. I dream of 30/30! (but will settle for 25/20)

0
Daniel Schwartz
10 years ago
Reply to  raygu

You DO love springer. i drafted him mid-round 2 last year in nfbc. He just went 16th overall in this league that started today – prior to betts and pollock!

0
Max Margolis
10 years ago

What’s the story behind the huge differences in the DeShields rankings? Do some of you just value SB’s more than others, or is there more to it?

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Max Margolis

I’m guessing there are some different expectations in playing time.

And to be entirely too honest, with such an early round of rankings, some players just don’t receive a lot of analysis and attention prior to getting a number. I feel like DeShields is the kind of guy who could fall through the cracks. I know I have taken a deep look at him yet.

0
Kurt Rader
10 years ago

Why Brantley at 62? Even if he only gets 300-350 AB this year he is a .300 avg 10 HR, 10 SB OF. In a 10/12 team league, starting an OF outside the top 75-80 for 300 AB coupled with Branleys stat totals is a top 25-35 OF.

Brantley with 350 AB is better than Melky or Gordon in my opinion given replacement value of OF

1
James Andrews
10 years ago
Reply to  Kurt Rader

He had surgery this offseason. No one knows when he will be back.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Kurt Rader

Here’s a challenge with rankings I’ve been thinking of writing up. As a manager, I relish the opportunity to grab Brantley, stash him on the DL, and stream a roster spot on breakout plays. Then I can “trade” for Brantley whenever he’s off the DL.

As a ranker, I have to recognize that Brantley is going to miss most of the season. A single roster spot with most healthy players is going to be better than a single spot with Brantley.

Working out how to balance those two factors for a general audience is a challenge.

0
wily moMember since 2020
10 years ago

when was this done? michael taylor at #89 as likely nationals 4th OF after the acquisition of revere, with michael saunders not ranked, when he’s probably at least strong side of a platoon in the jays lineup… well, it’s not what i’d do

0
ScoKo
10 years ago

Minus a few sbs, I think if he stays healthy Corey Dickerson puts up a line very close to Cutch.

3
KB
10 years ago
Reply to  ScoKo

Agree. I actually think Dickerson will outproduce Cutch in HR and could come close to matching him in SB if plantar injury healed. I’d expect a vastly better OBP for Cutch based on his BB% but otherwise I expect relatively similar production, including BA, for a 6th or 7th Rd pick instead of a 1st or 2nd. I don’t think it would be crazy for Dickerson to match Arenado/CarGo level production if healthy and in Colorado lineup all year.

1
cs3
10 years ago
Reply to  KB

Pretty huge “if”.
Were talking about a guy who had several DL trips last year and missed the majority of the season.

0
blue fountain
10 years ago
Reply to  KB

And I think it’s interesting comparing Dickerson to Springer, as well.
They both share the history that neither has played a full MLB season, yet they both tantalize with projecting their numbers out over a full season.

So since the crowd seems to have decided that Springer is the big name to gamble on early, there may be a disconnect/opportunity for taking other high upside guys like Dickerson later.

0
SS is a black hole
10 years ago

Curiosity question:
In a dynasty league similar to Ottoneu and points I’m carrying too many OF’s heading into the season.
I need to drop either Piscotty, Grichuk, or Conforto. Looking long term, not just this season. (I have Betts, Stanton, Cruz, and Yelich as my other OF’s.)
Who would you drop and why? I drafted these guys including Yelich when they were in the minors so they are on cheap contracts. (Of course, I’m using Schwarber at catcher.)

0
rayguMember since 2024
10 years ago
Reply to  SS is a black hole

I would drop Grichuk due to his high K rate and swinging strike rate. He could lose playing time in that lineup.

0
SS is a black hole
10 years ago
Reply to  raygu

I completely agree regarding the K and swinging strike rate, but I’m not certain it will impact playing time.
The Cardinals no longer have Bourjos and Jay taking up roster space and Heyward’s gone.
OF consists of the often injured Holliday, Piscotty, and ? Pham?

0
wily moMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  raygu

yeah – fair warning, i’m a pham fanboy, but he looked *really* good when he played down the stretch last year. i honestly think he’s just as good a hitter as piscotty and grichuk. he shows up right alongside grichuk near the top of the exit velocity leaderboards, with better contact / approach.

i think it’s most likely that holliday/grichuk/piscotty is the standard alignment with pham behind them unless and until somebody gets hurt, but grichuk is the kind of guy who could slump and if he does pham is a real option.

0
zoombazombie
10 years ago
Reply to  SS is a black hole

Piscotty is the least valuable there.

0
Mike
10 years ago

Would you take Blackmon round 8 keeper or Jose abreu round 4 keeper. Think I can get more value letting abreu go

0
rayguMember since 2024
10 years ago
Reply to  Mike

keep Blackmon if he stays in Colorado

0
Noah BaronMember since 2016
10 years ago

Schwarber is gonna shoot up this list. And I’m the opposite of a Cubs fan. But I’d honestly consider drafting him in the 2nd or 3rd round overall.

He just has ridiculous power, and unlike Bryant, doesn’t have quite as much of an issue with strikeouts (in the majors and minors).

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Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  Noah Baron

I don’t know, he had a 29% K rate and .216 AVG in the final two months of the season. He outran his 27% K rate from the first two months with a .429 BABIP. He’s got monster power, but I think he might be a little better Evan Gattis in 2016 (which is great for catcher, but not that special for OF).

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Josh
10 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

If you’re going to cherry pick the last 2 months, you should at least include the playoffs when he went back to mashing. it’s no surprise that someone with his profile would go through a prolonged slump.

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Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

How was it cherry-picking? Especially since I also pointed out how he had a 27% K rate when he was dominating.

Why do people see a critique of a player they like an assume that what’s being said “THIS PLAYER SUCKS!!!”

What would pointing out the playoffs have done? It was 31 PA and he mashed. Nobody is denying the power. He can get white-hot for stretches with that power, but the swing-and-miss also brings ice-cold stretches.

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ScoKo
10 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

The thing about Schwarber, that I think is actually a positive, is that his K and contact issues are severely weighed down by LHP. He was just brutal vs them. His numbers vs RHP were 14hrs .278avg and .953 ops in 176 abs. His K rate was 23.6% compared to 44% vs lhp. Not that 24% is good, but I don’t think it is overly alarming for a power hitter who shouldn’t have a low BABIP. If he gets 450 abs vs RHP, I personally feel very comfortable about him producing big numbers in those abs.

This is more relevant when catcher list comes out.

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blue fountain
10 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

I’ve seen that Gattis comp in other articles, too. I’m curious what characteristics you have in mind about Schwarber that evoke Gattis? To me, they seem like rather different players.

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cowdisciple
10 years ago

Thoughts on Sano? Looks quite likely that he will be primarily an outfielder this year.

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rayguMember since 2024
10 years ago
Reply to  cowdisciple

for me, Sano is a top 20 OFer due to his power. If he stays healthy, I see 30-35 home runs from him this season.

1
bbboston
10 years ago

Billy Burns seems undervalued to me….. Guy is capable of delivering 40+ SB, accretive average and runs. With the SB availability waning, he seems to be a must have source.

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MustBunique
10 years ago

Great stuff. Any chance you could include StDev as a column? Good measure of uncertainty.

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MustBunique
10 years ago
Reply to  MustBunique

Apologize, didn’t read enough about what Split was.

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jmwRSMember since 2020
10 years ago

Always has to be someone – Trout at #2? Bryce at #3, behind Giancarlo…?

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SpitFire
10 years ago

Bold prediction made cheap (sort by split)
RK Player Jeff Zach Dan Mike Brad Paul S Paul K AVG Adj. AVG SPLIT ▴
117 Aaron Hicks 192 118 151 134 81 68 102 120.9 117.2 124
108 Brandon Guyer 82 109 80 96 100 177 135 111.3 104.4 97
118 Adonis Garcia 91 112 90 105 129 179 147 121.9 116.8 89
122 Juan Lagares 121 132 102 119 112 184 114 126.3 119.6 82
116 Alex Rios 108 139 112 115 92 161 113 120.0 117.4 69

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Since 89Member since 2016
10 years ago

All but one of you ranked Nelson Cruz over J.D. Martinez. WRONG! Sure, last year counts and Cruz hit better, but while JD is in his prime, Cruz is a full 7 years older, turning 36 this year. No doubt Martinez’s floor is higher and I think his ceiling is as well, particularly since Cruz had a career high .350 BABIP. Steamer projects Cruz slightly higher (by 3) in HR and (by 1) in RBI, but projects JD’s average, conservatively I think at 273, to be almost 20 points higher. Last year was the last elite one for Cruz and I expect Martinez to exceed him in every category in 2016.

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Nick d
10 years ago

When will you guys realese a top 200 overall

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RG
10 years ago

Any particular OF that could be 2016 Pollock?
Someone like Peralta, Buxton, Delino, conforto, soler.

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Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  RG

Pillar!

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Dave Z
10 years ago

I think Bautista is getting overlooked by nearly everyone. He is a lock for 40-100-100. Plus he steals a few bags. And he can hit around .270 which is pretty good nowadays. Thanks guys!!

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Eric
10 years ago

Final 54 games .266/.333/.566. .300 ISO, .245 babip. 20 hrs, 5 sbs. Full season production at this level: .266, 60 hrs, 105 runs, 123 ribs and 15 sbs. Obviously nobody believes this, but at age 28… The way he closed out 15′ I don’t understand how Brad would rather have 66 other OF’s vs. Khris? Injury concerns? I see breakout candidate.

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CK
10 years ago

Any explanation for Michael Brantley at OF 62? He was a top 10 OF in 2014 and had a strong finish to 2015 after struggling with a lower back injury throughout most of the first half. Injury risk makes sense to keep him out of the top 20, but outside of top 60 seems a bit much.

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Adam
10 years ago

What do you fellas make of the mess in the Rockies OF? Does the Parra signing mean reduced playing time for Dickerson/Blackmon? Will the Rockies deal somebody?

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In Left Field
10 years ago

Delino DeShields above Chris Davis. I really wish Jeff’s rankings were not part of the composite rankings. I understand having your own opinion but some of his rankings are outrageous. Chironas over D’Arnoud. J. Iglesias 10 spots above B Crawford at SS.

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