RotoGraphs Consensus Rankings – May/June Update: Starting Pitchers

by
June 4, 2015

We’re making our way around the diamond with our updated rankings and today we are diving into the starting rotation, a robust fantasy position with plenty of elite-level talent, but maybe a soft middle. Here are the positions we’ve done so far and you can also access them via the Positional Rankings in the right sidebar:

We probably didn’t miss anyone here. If you think someone is missing, you can definitely mention him in the comments, but chances are he just didn’t make the cut.

I ranked 150, Zach ranked 122, Mike ranked 100, and Eno – yes Eno is here for the SP Ranks!!! – ranked 134. If they didn’t rank someone that one of the others did, he was given a +1 of their last rank as I’m sure you noticed in the other positions, but there’s a lot of different opinions with pitchers so it’s more prevalent here.

FYI: the table is sortable!

Num Player Team League Paul Zach Mike Eno AVG
1 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers NL 1 1 1 2 1.3
2 Felix Hernandez Mariners AL 4 2 2 4 3.0
3 Max Scherzer Nationals NL 2 7 3 1 3.3
4 Corey Kluber Indians AL 3 3 5 3 3.5
5 Chris Sale White Sox AL 5 5 4 6 5.0
6 Madison Bumgarner Giants NL 12 6 7 7 8.0
7 Matt Harvey Mets NL 10 8 11 5 8.5
8 Johnny Cueto Reds NL 7 4 14 10 8.8
9 Zack Greinke Dodgers NL 8 9 12 11 10.0
10 Gerrit Cole Pirates NL 6 17 10 8 10.3
11 David Price Tigers AL 9 12 6 18 11.3
12 Carlos Carrasco Indians AL 15 16 9 9 12.3
13 Sonny Gray Athletics AL 11 11 18 13 13.3
14 Chris Archer Rays AL 14 14 16 12 14.0
15 Cole Hamels Phillies NL 13 19 8 17 14.3
16 Jake Arrieta Cubs NL 19 10 22 15 16.5
17 Jacob deGrom Mets NL 20 13 23 14 17.5
18 Jordan Zimmermann Nationals NL 24 15 17 21 19.3
19 James Shields Padres NL 18 23 13 26 20.0
20 Dallas Keuchel Astros AL 16 18 29 19 20.5
21 Jon Lester Cubs NL 26 20 15 23 21.0
22 Michael Pineda Yankees AL 17 34 19 16 21.5
23 Masahiro Tanaka Yankees AL 21 24 30 20 23.8
24 Lance Lynn Cardinals NL 23 25 34 29 27.8
25 Stephen Strasburg Nationals NL 33 22 21 38 28.5
26 Garrett Richards Angels AL 25 31 38 24 29.5
27 Jeff Samardzija White Sox AL 30 26 25 39 30.0
28 Gio Gonzalez Nationals NL 34 30 24 36 31.0
29 Collin McHugh Astros AL 36 32 28 31 31.8
30 Jake Odorizzi Rays AL 43 21 39 25 32.0
31 Jason Hammel Cubs NL 29 29 43 30 32.8
32 Danny Salazar Indians AL 31 53 20 27 32.8
33 Tyson Ross Padres NL 37 27 36 32 33.0
34 Michael Wacha Cardinals NL 22 35 44 33 33.5
35 Trevor Bauer Indians AL 42 28 41 28 34.8
36 Francisco Liriano Pirates NL 35 36 35 40 36.5
37 Anibal Sanchez Tigers AL 40 52 27 35 38.5
38 Noah Syndergaard Mets NL 44 43 37 37 40.3
39 A.J. Burnett Pirates NL 28 37 50 49 41.0
40 John Lackey Cardinals NL 38 38 46 43 41.3
41 Andrew Cashner Padres NL 27 66 42 34 42.3
42 Jose Fernandez Marlins NL 49 48 53 22 43.0
43 Alex Wood Braves NL 39 49 48 42 44.5
44 Jose Quintana White Sox AL 41 33 52 52 44.5
45 Mike Fiers Brewers NL 47 59 32 48 46.5
46 Shelby Miller Braves NL 32 46 67 46 47.8
47 Carlos Martinez Cardinals NL 46 56 49 44 48.8
48 Clay Buchholz Red Sox AL 48 42 40 68 49.5
49 Matt Shoemaker Angels AL 55 41 57 47 50.0
50 Jesse Hahn Athletics AL 52 47 66 54 54.8
51 Justin Verlander Tigers AL 51 73 31 67 55.5
52 Chase Anderson Diamondbacks NL 57 44 68 55 56.0
53 Jesse Chavez Athletics AL 61 45 65 61 58.0
54 Yordano Ventura Royals AL 60 65 58 51 58.5
55 Julio Teheran Braves NL 45 95 45 50 58.8
56 Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox AL 53 78 63 45 59.8
57 Scott Kazmir Athletics AL 65 99 26 53 60.8
58 Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners AL 77 64 47 56 61.0
59 Phil Hughes Twins AL 59 51 55 82 61.8
60 Rubby de la Rosa Diamondbacks NL 88 50 79 41 64.5
61 Ian Kennedy Padres NL 92 82 33 59 66.5
62 Jered Weaver Angels AL 58 97 56 64 68.8
63 Bartolo Colon Mets NL 56 55 76 94 70.3
64 Drew Hutchison Blue Jays AL 50 103 51 79 70.8
65 Taijuan Walker Mariners AL 69 70 61 88 72.0
66 Ervin Santana Twins AL 62 67 101 62 73.0
67 Chris Heston Giants NL 72 39 101 83 73.8
68 Aaron Harang Phillies NL 67 40 101 96 76.0
69 Kyle Hendricks Cubs NL 68 101 78 57 76.0
70 Dan Haren Marlins NL 74 72 73 86 76.3
71 Wei-Yin Chen Orioles AL 63 69 81 93 76.5
72 Roenis Elias Mariners AL 82 61 101 70 78.5
73 C.J. Wilson Angels AL 83 88 82 65 79.5
74 Jaime Garcia Cardinals NL 66 123 59 71 79.8
75 Doug Fister Nationals NL 94 96 64 72 81.5
76 Brett Anderson Dodgers NL 89 68 69 101 81.8
77 Alfredo Simon Tigers AL 90 60 101 81 83.0
78 Nate Karns Rays AL 80 75 99 84 84.5
79 Brandon Morrow Padres NL 78 87 101 73 84.8
80 Mike Leake Reds NL 84 83 75 98 85.0
81 Anthony DeSclafani Reds NL 104 77 101 58 85.0
82 Jimmy Nelson Brewers NL 75 123 77 66 85.3
83 Ubaldo Jimenez Orioles AL 70 89 91 92 85.5
84 Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks NL 93 74 101 77 86.3
85 Henderson Alvarez Marlins NL 100 54 101 90 86.3
86 Mike Foltynewicz Braves NL 96 92 101 60 87.3
87 Kyle Lohse Brewers NL 73 100 70 107 87.5
88 Lance McCullers Astros AL 54 123 101 78 89.0
89 Miguel Gonzalez Orioles AL 64 123 101 69 89.3
90 Nathan Eovaldi Yankees AL 98 79 94 91 90.5
91 Chris Tillman Orioles AL 108 81 89 87 91.3
92 Carlos Rodon White Sox AL 111 57 101 97 91.5
93 Mat Latos Marlins NL 117 80 101 75 93.3
94 J.A. Happ Mariners AL 87 85 101 105 94.5
95 Shane Greene Tigers AL 126 71 93 89 94.8
96 Mike Bolsinger Dodgers NL 105 94 101 80 95.0
97 Trevor May Twins AL 71 91 101 121 96.0
98 Raisel Iglesias Reds NL 103 122 101 63 97.3
99 Wily Peralta Brewers NL 95 104 84 108 97.8
100 Matt Cain Giants NL 110 106 101 76 98.3
101 Derek Holland Rangers AL 125 58 101 110 98.5
102 Rick Porcello Red Sox AL 79 123 60 135 99.3
103 James Paxton Mariners AL 128 113 83 74 99.5
104 CC Sabathia Yankees AL 114 123 62 106 101.3
105 R.A. Dickey Blue Jays AL 116 111 54 124 101.3
106 Wade Miley Red Sox AL 86 123 80 120 102.3
107 Matt Garza Brewers NL 131 105 71 102 102.3
108 Tim Hudson Giants NL 132 114 72 99 104.3
109 Carlos Frias Dodgers NL 118 93 101 118 107.5
110 Tsuyoshi Wada Cubs NL 76 123 101 135 108.8
111 Yovani Gallardo Rangers AL 107 107 95 126 108.8
112 Tom Koehler Marlins NL 115 84 101 135 108.8
113 Tim Lincecum Giants NL 106 115 101 114 109.0
114 Jake Peavy Giants NL 102 112 101 122 109.3
115 Kevin Gausman Orioles AL 123 102 101 111 109.3
116 Josh Collmenter Diamondbacks NL 130 110 74 123 109.3
117 Drew Smyly Rays AL 143 109 101 85 109.5
118 Archie Bradley Diamondbacks NL 151 86 101 100 109.5
119 Hector Santiago Angels AL 81 123 100 135 109.8
120 Edinson Volquez Royals AL 85 123 96 135 109.8
121 Colby Lewis Rangers AL 151 90 85 113 109.8
122 Drew Pomeranz Athletics AL 124 123 97 104 112.0
123 David Phelps Marlins NL 151 62 101 135 112.3
124 Charlie Morton Pirates NL 91 123 101 135 112.5
125 Kris Medlen Royals AL 151 63 101 135 112.5
126 Joe Kelly Red Sox AL 113 116 98 128 113.8
127 Jorge de la Rosa Rockies NL 97 123 101 135 114.0
128 Kendall Graveman Athletics AL 129 123 101 103 114.0
129 Chris Young Royals AL 99 123 101 135 114.5
130 Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays AL 112 120 101 125 114.5
131 Jon Niese Mets NL 121 123 88 127 114.8
132 Andrew Heaney Angels AL 140 123 101 95 114.8
133 Chad Bettis Rockies NL 101 123 101 135 115.0
134 Kyle Gibson Twins AL 122 123 101 117 115.8
135 Brandon Beachy Dodgers NL 151 76 101 135 115.8
136 Erasmo Ramirez Rays AL 109 121 101 135 116.5
137 Alex Colome Rays AL 136 117 101 116 117.5
138 Matt Moore Rays AL 137 108 101 130 119.0
139 Nick Martinez Rangers AL 119 123 101 135 119.5
140 Tanner Roark Nationals NL 120 123 101 135 119.8
141 Danny Duffy Royals AL 151 98 101 132 120.5
142 Jason Vargas Royals AL 134 123 92 135 121.0
143 Dillon Gee Mets NL 151 123 101 109 121.0
144 Adam Warren Yankees AL 127 123 101 135 121.5
145 A.J. Griffin Athletics AL 151 123 101 112 121.8
146 Josh Johnson Padres NL 151 123 101 115 122.5
147 Wandy Rodriguez Rangers AL 133 123 101 135 123.0
148 Mike Wright Orioles AL 135 123 101 135 123.5
149 Brandon Finnegan Royals AL 151 123 101 119 123.5
150 Jeremy Hellickson Diamondbacks NL 151 123 86 135 123.8
151 Mark Buehrle Blue Jays AL 138 123 101 135 124.3
152 Chi Chi Gonzalez Rangers AL 139 123 101 135 124.5
153 Ryan Vogelsong Giants NL 141 123 101 135 125.0
154 Mike Montgomery Mariners AL 142 123 101 135 125.3
155 Jose Berrios Twins AL 144 123 101 135 125.8
156 Steven Matz Mets NL 148 123 101 131 125.8
157 Michael Lorenzen Reds NL 145 123 101 135 126.0
158 Eddie Butler Rockies NL 151 123 101 129 126.0
159 Nicholas Tropeano Angels AL 146 123 101 135 126.3
160 Tyler Matzek Rockies NL 151 118 101 135 126.3
161 Jeff Locke Pirates NL 147 123 101 135 126.5
162 Aaron Nola Phillies NL 149 123 101 134 126.8
163 Daniel Norris Blue Jays AL 151 123 101 133 127.0
164 Odrisamer Despaigne Padres NL 150 123 101 135 127.3

Enjoy!





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

54 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
buctober 2015
11 years ago

Paul, why 43 for Odorizzi?

0
buctober 2015
11 years ago
Reply to  buctober 2015

also, thanks all this is awesome

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
11 years ago
Reply to  buctober 2015

You know, I didn’t realize I was so low him by comparison because I like Odorizzi. I guess I just like a handful of others more.

Though I will say if I’d have done tiers, his would range as high as probably Miller so Odorizzi could realistically be as high as 32.

0
Joe Camp
11 years ago

@eno. Why so low on David Price?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
11 years ago
Reply to  Joe Camp

Tons of changeups, I don’t think he necessarily will strike more guys out going forward.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
11 years ago

Right around 58/59 – 70, I found it really hard to rank. Those are mixed league pitchers, but they aren’t guys I really want to start every day. Maybe we should all be streaming those guys.

0
Ben
11 years ago

Wood dropped a bunch – but his last three starts have been really good. Is it just the Ks?

2
TangoAlphaLima
11 years ago
Reply to  Ben

The lack of Ks is a definite concern, at least for me. Right now he’s got a meager 5.9% swinging strike rate, down from 9.7% last year.

0
MustBunique
11 years ago

Eno, whats up with your Clay ranks? FIP and xFIP look good, velo looks good, change looks better, and great k/9 backed by sw str. Your thoughts?

0
brianwogan
11 years ago
Reply to  MustBunique

i second that. clay should be much higher

-1
O'KieboomerMember since 2021
11 years ago
Reply to  MustBunique

He’s mentally weak

-1
mymaus
11 years ago
Reply to  MustBunique

Make that a third. Clay is 20th in MLB in K-BB% Eno’s favorite in season predictor.

-1
Norm
11 years ago

For H2H leaguers, if Hisashi Iwakuma and Jose Fernandes were to come back healthy today, around where would they rank?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
11 years ago
Reply to  Norm

Even if this is all sustainable, which it might be, he’s an injury risk.

0
Norm
11 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

I did notice you ranked Fernandez at 22, a lot higher than the others. I like your ranking better.

1
Tuscan Chicken
11 years ago

Did Oberholtzer, Cosart, or Bud Norris make any lists. Errrrm, asking for a friend.

Eno is higher on Smyly than anyone else. Did you hear anything? Give it up!

Thanks guys.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
11 years ago
Reply to  Tuscan Chicken

I wouldn’t have ranked Oberholtzer even if he was in there. That new cutter would have to be amazing. Cosart BABIP coming up, might have had him 120ish. I think Bud Norris going to lose his job, and not going to be that good, so 110-120 about the best I could give him too.

On Smyly, when I got that spot, innings were less important and upside became more interesting.

0
Tuscan Chicken
11 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Thanks man.

0
MM
11 years ago

So much optimism on a Strasburg turnaround.

0
Jon
11 years ago

So I should drop Happ for Iglesias, Eno? What do you like about him going forward? (If you’ve already talked about him, my bad.) Elias is another guy available. Either one would be my last SP while I wait on Paxton or Griffin to return.

0
Kevin
11 years ago

Curious to know Zach’s thoughts on Salazar (53 vs 20, 27, 31). His xFIP and SIERA (2.80 and 2.71) are stellar.

-1
Kevin
11 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

Conversely, Eno has Salazar just ahead of Arrieta and deGrom. Are the differences as simple as Eno trusting xFIP/SIERA and Zach trusting projections and past performance?

1
Zach SandersMember since 2020
11 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

Taking another look at it, I’d move him up about 10 spots. I still worry about command and homers.

1
AN
11 years ago

@paul @eno, Kluber > King Felix seems a bit bold, no? Do the Ks make such a difference?

1
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
11 years ago
Reply to  AN

Could just as easily be flipped for me. Love both.

0
Kevin
11 years ago
Reply to  AN

Kluber has half a run on Felix in xFIP and SIERA. And (*Arbitrary Endpoints*) since he corrected his bad start he’s been phenomenal. Last five starts: 13.3 K/9, 0.68 BB/9, 2.03 ERA, 1.19 FIP all with a .345 BABIP.

0
brianwogan
11 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

hes always gonna deal with a high babip because of the defense behind him

1
Kevin
11 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

Solid point Brian

0
Mike
11 years ago

Eno, any particular thoughts on Trevor May? Decent prospect and seems to be showing improved peripherals a year into his career…anything there you see?

Also, Taijuan Walker thoughts if you have em, I see you were lowest on him.

1
Joe Camp
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

I have the exact same questions.

0
Tchaikovsky08
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

Re: Trevor May, I too am curious whether his nice peripherals portend a true breakout. 2.80 FIP is firmly in the top 15 in MLB.

0
oliver
11 years ago

whats the thought on Moore for the second Half? worthy of a stash (2 FAs can be kept for one year only) or better off going somewhere else? 12 team points league and im in first place. I have tons of pitching, 6 in the consensus top 30, but could use some bats. Thanks in advance!

0
Tuscan Chicken
11 years ago
Reply to  oliver

I think everyone is starting to push the Moore vs Corbin vs Nova vs Griffen angle. It’ll be interesting.

0
Stuck in a Slump
11 years ago
Reply to  Tuscan Chicken

I’ve got three of those four stashed on one of my teams. Hoping for a big time second half push!

0
Urban Shocker
11 years ago

Hey Paul-you recommended Cervelli a month ago when all the catchers went down.
Good call!

0
Eggs in One Basket
11 years ago

Need advice on how many pitchers I need to keep the rest of the year after overdrafting SP big time.

I have:
Kershaw
Scherzer
Sale
Arriata
Tanaka
Sanchez
Cashner
Bucholtz

200 start maximum league, with 71 starts already made. I’m dominating in every pitching categoy (K, QS, WHIP, ERA), but struggling on offense big time.

0
TangoAlphaLima
11 years ago
Reply to  Eggs in One Basket

If you can sell high on Tanaka now, do it. That elbow ain’t gonna hold up.

0
In a Similar Boat
11 years ago
Reply to  Eggs in One Basket

Sell Sale and Tankaka if you can. I would even be willing to move Kershaw if the price was right. Scherzer, Arrieta, and Cashner would be my keepers.

-1
Miles
11 years ago

I picked up Steven Matz over everyone south of Kazmir at 57

0
Wario
11 years ago

Hey Paul thanks for these! Big help!

Could you expand your high Wacha ranking. The KS aren’t there and FIP/xFIP paint a not so pretty picture.

0
Belle of the League
11 years ago
Reply to  Wario

Can’t speak for the experts or as one, but the Cardinals are my “home” team.
Two starts ago, the local announcers mentioned that Wacha was using a new pitch and wasn’t quite comfortable with it yet. (I’m going to have to look at what he’s throwing, but maybe a cutter?)
His last start (Dodgers @ home) he had a no-hitter through 5 with 7 K’s. Fell apart in the 6th.
It would have been nice if it hadn’t been a rain delayed, sloppy night that hadn’t required several warmups to see if a new pitch selection might have a positive impact going forward.
So, yes, I’d like the experts to offer their input, too.

0
Lanidrac
11 years ago
Reply to  Belle of the League

Well, tonight (1 ER in 7 IP w/ 5 Ks & 0 BBs for the W) the announcers mentioned that Wacha has been getting a lot of lazy fly balls to make up for the middling K%, and he’s recently become fully comfortable with throwing his curveball during any count. I bet SIERA paints a prettier picture than his FIP stats.

0
Belle of the League
11 years ago

Your thoughts on another TJ pitcher, Martin Perez? More or less upside than someone like Corbin?
He’s only 24 and had a few very good starts (excluding his last one) before his arm fell off.
He is starting “extended spring training” tomorrow.

0
Eephus
11 years ago

I see they are ranked pretty close to one another, but I’m itching to pull the trigger on dropping someone for E-Rod. I’m debating between Cashner and AWood. Looking at their underlying statistics, both guys look off compared to last year. Cashner’s FB value has taken a massive hit and both have sky high WHIP’s, but Wood has been good of late. If Eduardo keeps this up, he’s going to outperform them both right?

1
Ryan BrockMember since 2016
11 years ago

Zach’s rankings: Projections with no accounting for skills changes
Mike’s rankings: Overweighting projected IP significantly

Time download and only look at Paul/Eno’s…

0
Zach SandersMember since 2020
11 years ago
Reply to  Ryan Brock

I have a feeling you may have flipped those 🙂

Mike’s the one who is (admittedly and maybe rightfully so) slower to change, while I do value getting stats over having a month of a blank spot.

0
Outliar Baseball
11 years ago

Statistically, you did the Avg column poorly. The simplest way to do it well is to drop the best ranking and the worst, and average the middle two rankings. The not-so-simple way is to compare the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and last ranking for each (a 1st+, 2nd+, etc.) and then take a simple average of those rankings.

It may not make a huge difference, but it’s a better evaluation method.

0
Lanidrac
11 years ago
Reply to  Outliar Baseball

It is simpler, but I think the mean is a much better evaluator than the median in this situation.

0
Lanidrac
11 years ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

To add on to that point, the median is better used only when there are expected to be very significant outliers among the data points.

0
Mike W.
11 years ago

Surprised to see Jesse Chavez down as low as he is, especially someone like Lance McCullers who has tremendous talent, but questionable peripherals so far.

Are you concerned that Chavez will wear down again, like he seemed to last year? His numbers have been very good so far this year and the park is excellent for pitchers.

0
Richard
11 years ago

Trevor May is pretty low on here, any thoughts from any of the rankers on him?

0
Jay
11 years ago

Paul what’s the reasoning on the low Ian Kennedy ranking? Seems you and Eno have one of the biggest disparities over him.

0
JimmyBinooster
11 years ago

Any reason Ubaldo is so low. His rates are improved and his SwStrk% is up. He’s in the zone more and getting ahead in counts. I’d say he at least deserves to be in John Lackey/Jose Quintana territory.

0
job4mike
11 years ago

Royal’s Guthrie is not ranked–perhaps about 135??

0