RotoGraphs Consensus Rankings – May Update: Shortstops
We’re making our way around the diamond with our updated rankings and today we are onto shortstops. Here are the positions we’ve done so far and you can also access them via the Positional Rankings in the right sidebar:
If you feel we missed someone, please let us know in the comments.
This was a really tough position for me because it’s just so messed up. The studs aren’t studding leaving it wide open at the top. There has been some nice risers, but it’s still a remarkably thin position and easily the thinnest on the diamond.
FYI: the table is sortable!
| Num | Player | Team | League | Paul | Zach | Mike | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Troy Tulowitzki | Rockies | NL | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2.7 |
| 2 | Ian Desmond | Nationals | NL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2.7 |
| 3 | Hanley Ramirez | Red Sox | AL | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3.3 |
| 4 | Starlin Castro | Cubs | NL | 6 | 2 | 7 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Jose Reyes | Blue Jays | AL | 9 | 7 | 4 | 6.7 |
| 6 | Jhonny Peralta | Cardinals | NL | 4 | 5 | 12 | 7.0 |
| 7 | Marcus Semien | Athletics | AL | 2 | 6 | 14 | 7.3 |
| 8 | Ben Zobrist | Athletics | AL | 13 | 12 | 8 | 11.0 |
| 9 | Jung-ho Kang | Pirates | NL | 7 | 11 | 16 | 11.3 |
| 10 | Alexei Ramirez | White Sox | AL | 16 | 8 | 10 | 11.3 |
| 11 | Jimmy Rollins | Dodgers | NL | 17 | 13 | 9 | 13.0 |
| 12 | Elvis Andrus | Rangers | AL | 15 | 20 | 6 | 13.7 |
| 13 | Alcides Escobar | Royals | AL | 18 | 18 | 5 | 13.7 |
| 14 | Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | AL | 12 | 10 | 21 | 14.3 |
| 15 | Brandon Crawford | Giants | NL | 5 | 16 | 24 | 15.0 |
| 16 | Jean Segura | Brewers | NL | 14 | 19 | 13 | 15.3 |
| 17 | Brad Miller | Mariners | AL | 10 | 9 | 28 | 15.7 |
| 18 | Wilmer Flores | Mets | NL | 11 | 23 | 15 | 16.3 |
| 19 | Chris Owings | Diamondbacks | NL | 21 | 21 | 17 | 19.7 |
| 20 | Erick Aybar | Angels | AL | 25 | 24 | 11 | 20.0 |
| 21 | Zack Cozart | Reds | NL | 19 | 14 | 32 | 21.7 |
| 22 | Jed Lowrie | Astros | AL | 27 | 15 | 23 | 21.7 |
| 23 | Addison Russell | Cubs | NL | 23 | 28 | 18 | 23.0 |
| 24 | Jose Iglesias | Tigers | AL | 22 | 17 | 31 | 23.3 |
| 25 | Asdrubal Cabrera | Rays | AL | 29 | 31 | 19 | 26.3 |
| 26 | Andrelton Simmons | Braves | NL | 28 | 27 | 25 | 26.7 |
| 27 | Danny Santana | Twins | AL | 31 | 33 | 20 | 28.0 |
| 28 | Yunel Escobar | Nationals | NL | 30 | 26 | 30 | 28.7 |
| 29 | J.J. Hardy | Orioles | AL | 36 | 29 | 22 | 29.0 |
| 30 | Freddy Galvis | Phillies | NL | 30 | 22 | 37 | 29.7 |
| 31 | Carlos Correa | Astros | AL | 20 | 36 | 39 | 31.7 |
| 32 | Adeiny Hechavarria | Marlins | NL | 33 | 25 | 38 | 32.0 |
| 33 | Odubel Herrera | Phillies | NL | 32 | 39 | 27 | 32.7 |
| 34 | Jose Ramirez | Indians | AL | 37 | 32 | 29 | 32.7 |
| 35 | Chris Taylor | Mariners | AL | 38 | 35 | 26 | 33.0 |
| 36 | Mike Aviles | Indians | AL | 35 | 30 | 42 | 35.7 |
| 37 | Javier Baez | Cubs | NL | 26 | 39 | 43 | 36.0 |
| 38 | Didi Gregorius | Yankees | AL | 43 | 34 | 34 | 37.0 |
| 39 | Stephen Drew | Yankees | AL | 39 | 37 | 36 | 37.3 |
| 40 | Matt Duffy | Giants | NL | 34 | 39 | 40 | 37.7 |
| 41 | Everth Cabrera | Orioles | AL | 44 | 39 | 33 | 38.7 |
| 42 | Alexi Amarista | Padres | NL | 45 | 39 | 35 | 39.7 |
| 43 | Tim Beckham | Rays | AL | 41 | 39 | 41 | 40.3 |
| 44 | Enrique Hernandez | Dodgers | NL | 40 | 39 | 45 | 41.3 |
| 45 | Ruben Tejada | Mets | NL | 42 | 38 | 44 | 41.3 |
Some notes:
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- I stuck with Tulo at the top under the idea that this skills decline isn’t permanent. I think his situation with Colorado will be resolved soon and he’ll get back to being the Tulo we know and expect. There’s just no legitimate explanation for the skills drop that doesn’t include mental off-the-field stuff related to constantly losing with the Rockies.
- I guess the other guys had as many issues with SS as I did. The position has the most dissent so far. Looking at the biggest splits between highest and lowest rank, we have 24 SS who are split by 10+ spots between two rankers. We saw a high of 19 at 2B with Rougned Odor. SS has three different 19-spot splits: Crawford, Miller, and Correa.
- Like first base, shortstop doesn’t have a single consensus rank. Only one was close: Desmond.
- I’m very concerned about Ramirez’s health, hence the much lower ranking. He’s been awful in May since smashing into the wall. The HR yesterday is somewhat encouraging, but not enough to make me believe he’s all of a sudden better. Since hitting the wall: .227/.275/.320 w/1 HR, 2 RBIs, and 0 SBs (1 CS).
- I’m expecting Kang to become a full-time starter in the very near future, assuming it hasn’t been formally announced somewhere already. After a 70-to-29 PA advantage for Jordy Mercer in April, it’s shifted to 87/64 in favor of Kang in May so far. And Mercer is doing nothing to suggest he deserves more playing time with a 25 wRC+ (Kang 134). Edit to add: after discussing in the comments, I realize he essentially already is a full-timer thanks to the 3B time v. LH. It doesn’t have any bearing on my ranking, just makes me more confident in him, but I knew it’d happen sooner or later anyway.
- Galvis and Hechavarria are slotted fifth and sixth, respectively, on the ESPN Player Rater at SS so far and yet I feel they are very appropriately ranked here at 30 and 32. Both are remarabkly empty batting averages.
- I obviously believe in Crawford, but part of it is definitely the strength of the position (or lack thereof). He’s been improving year over year, his playing time is guaranteed because of his defense, and that offense has been surprisingly good which improves his R/RBI potential. His 14% HR/FB rate is a career-high by double, but he is also smashing the ball with a 37% Hard%, easily his career-high and third-best at the position (Tulo 44%, Peralta 38%).
Knag is more or less already a full time starter
It’s getting there. Still 3 starts for each in the last six games. Their defensive focus definitely keeps Mercer in the mix, but I think the bat is getting awful enough that Kang has to continue to get more & more PT.
is that just SS numbers? the recent trend has been against lefties kang at third and JHay in RF when Mercer starts at SS
Kang plays every day, just not always at SS. Sometimes harrison plays RF and or 2B, and on those days Kang is at third and Mercer at SS.
You’re right, harrison! Re-looking now I see Kang has 5 starts in the last 6 bc of his 3B stuff. So yeah he’s pretty much already full-time like you said! I feel great about him as a top 10 SS.
But, kang plays 3b when polanco is benched and harrison moves to OF, that’s why mercer gets starts. I think kang has started 12 of last 13 games. Paul when will you be chatting on sunday nights again?
Got tulo in the third and Rendon in the 4th and was pumped. Traded tulo yesterday for Bautista because I still have semien and castro. In a 10 team H2H would you try to trade castro and pick up kang
how come Mike hates Semien so much (for both SS and 2B, two relatively thin positions)? Not as good in real life b/c defense is pretty bad, but not at any risk of losing job, power/speed combo is as expected, and doesn’t really hurt you anywhere.
I don’t weight a month and a half of stats that heavily and stick close to my preseason rankings when dealing with a small sample size. Only adjust a bit for skills changes and obviously for injuries.
I get it, Mike, and it’s the main reason I’m having a problem making a decision.
I picked up Semien ($1) to back up Wong when Rendon went on the DL.
I rarely spend money on SS’s because unless you are willing the blow your money on the oft-injured elite, if you pay attention, there will always be a surprise in the next tier or two.
Will need to drop someone when Rendon comes off the DL among this group: Semien, A. Escobar, or Segura. Can also get Kang if I want. Assume they are all cheap because they are.
Keeper/dynasty points league similar but not exactly Ottoneu.
So, which 2 of those 4 would you keep? I’m looking at next year as much as this one. Unless my team gets hit by a bus, I’ll finish 1st this season.
Kinda impossible to answer a points league question without knowing the points system! Though I know most points leagues the low walk and power speed guys like Escobar and Segura are worth significantly less.
Thanks again for your time, Mike! Of course, you’re right, you’d need to know the scoring system and ours is very, very custom.
The short version: It is OBP oriented, but we did tweak the scoring to give value to the speedsters.
Escobar finished 7th or 8th in last year’s SS rankings and according to my pre-season projections, he should finish in about the same place. He definitely wasn’t a replacement level SS.
There is always an exception, but the points projection system I developed that is specific to our league always ends up ranking players at their positions very, very closely to your list.
I’m trying to look longer term and I don’t need my MI’s to be a power hitters, only the better offensive ballplayers looking at things like WOBA and WRC. After that I can get into the finer points like SwStr%, etc.
Will a kid like Semien develop into a real asset? Will Segura return to or exceed his rookie season and was last year a fluke? Is Kang a better choice that either of them?
Too much free time and paralysis by analysis.
I’m old, Mike. Might croak before I make a decision here…and then it won’t matter.
Mike wants to be the last guy to every party. Maybe it’s the right way to play in leagues where you can’t add much anyway; with a rich waiver wire, you’ll get killed. You’d never add Semien, that’s for sure.
Just curious as to why Kang is ranked so far ahead of Crawford, is it the power?
I’ll see if the other guys come in and answer because I have them 2 spots apart. Big fan of both.
Alcides Escobar and Elvis Andrus at 5 & 6, but Marcus Semien and Jung Ho-Kang outside the top 13?
Are you sure these aren’t Mike’s preseason ranks?
They are close, because a month and a half is a tiny sample size. I make changes based on playing time, injuries and batting order, and just a tad for skills changes.
I agree with Mike on Alcides. He’s pretty much the same guy as last year. The only difference is the SB total. And don’t those come more in bunches than HRs?
If Alcides had 11 SBs, everyone would be like he’s doing what he’s supposed to be doing.
He has been caught stealing twice, but it is interesting to note that those were both by the pitcher not the catcher. Quintana and Detwiler, and I don’t know if they have good moves or what.
I get what you’re saying, but we’re already over a fourth of the way through the season. The sample sizes aren’t so tiny anymore, or at least not as tiny as you would have us believe.
Just down on Hanley because of health, Paul?
Yes sir. I mentioned it in the notes part at the bottom. That’s my big concern. Obviously love the talent when healthy, but really worried that there will be a chunk of missed time or more of this 85% version who appears to be ailing from the shoulder for sure.
D’oh. Missed that lil nugget. Thanks!
I’m surprised to see that Mike is still so high on both Andrus and Escobar.
Very surprised to see how poorly Crawford is ranked (outside of Paul’s ranking). He won’t keep up this pace, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t be a top 12 option going forward. Especially when Alcides, Elvis and Xander have been fantasy disappointments dating back to last year.
he’ll end up better than league average, for sure. I think he’s top 10 shortstop by the end of the season, even with regression. But, don’t quote me on it!
I was curious what kind of tear Tulo would have to go on in order to match his 2014 campaign (375 Herculean PA’s) . Some back of the napkin math here, but I believe with the hole he’s dug himself over 161 PA’s this year he would have to hit: .391/.518/.757 over 214 PA’s to replicate.
I had somewhat forgotten how incredible he was last year when on the field.
LOL @ the guy ranking Peralta 12th.
Tulo is still stinging the ball – 13th on Baseball heatmaps’ flyball distance leaders, and a 44% Hard-hit rate. I’m still buying.
Is tulo worth offering both Reyes and kang?
I’m a Castro owner and even I thinks Zach’s 2 ranking is high. Is it based on what Castro is doing or how the other guys are slumping?
is it an overpay or pretty fair to offer HanRam, Trumbo, Gio Gonz and maybe melancon for Rizzo and Tulo?
All of that is not enough for Rizzo alone. ROFL.
Rollin’s BA has really fallen off this year, but it seems to be largely BABIP driven and his peripherals seem similar to last year. I had been hoping this his move from the lowly Phillies to a premium lineup spot with the Dodgers could really boost his production (which was already pretty solid last year on a per game basis). Do these rankings assume that hitting .203 is the new Rollins? If he continues to hit this poorly, is there any scenario where Seager comes up and replaces him in the starting lineup soon?
Trade Rollins for Niese or Gee and call up Seager! Ahh, they always sound better in my head.
10 team H2H points leaugue. I have Semien at 2B and Hanley at SS. Thinking of dropping Castro to pick up D Travis but before I do could you explain why he is ranked so highly.
Any changes in OBP leagues?
Yeah move up guys who walk a lot and move down guys who don’t.
Crawford below Xander, Elvis? I’m not a huge fantasy guy, but that seems weird.
Does anyone think that Tulo’s surgery may have had a longer lasting effect on him? Everyone says it was a “normal” procedure, but wasn’t the recovery time five months? Five months is a long time and would have pushed him close to ST. And any doctor will tell you everyone heals at a different rate.
What’s a good closer offer for Peralta/Semien/Zobrist/Kang tier? 15 teamer.
Cole Hamels thinks you should put Tulo back at #1
(Zach and Mike)
Paul, any reason for Flores and Miller being ranked ahead of Zobrist going forward? Is this due to concerns about Zobrist coming off the knee injury? I can somewhat see the Flores ranking since his power upside at the position is interesting, but Miller has been terrible for the past month and could end up losing some playing time to someone like Chris Taylor going forward.
The power is the difference for me. Z is a low double digit guy in both. Miller and Flores already 5 and 7, respectively. Miller also runs, so his raw counts in HR/SB can overcome his AVG deficiency compared to Z. Additionally, I do worry about Z’s health at 34. All that said, the Miller to Segura block is close for me so even Z atop that quartet wouldn’t bother me.
Re: Miller’s PT, he’s losing SS PT, but gaining it back in the OF. He’s become a utility guy much like Zobrist.
Miller is too high. He had one excellent week. Otherwise, he’s been just a guy, and he might not have a guaranteed spot in the order. It’s the tease he gave us last year, at times.
Stunned at how low Crawford and Segura are. Wow.
Andrus at 6th? He has had over a year of sucking for 120 million. I dropped him a couple weeks ago…I better go check his stats because he must be on some kind of insane tear.
Mike is pretty stubborn.
Welp, thankfully I didn’t trade Hanley-marisnick for jhk and oswaldo in an oBP league. Almost did bc Hanley was bottoming out. Now hes raking again. Another day, another game
Hanley is doing all he can to make me look dumb, but healthily blasting HRs in back-to-back games. He looked so bad for a stretch there after hitting the wall.
Crawford at 16 & 24??? Zach and Mike are idiots!
So if Correa is called up tomorrow where would he rank?
SEE HIM NOW MY BAD YOU GUYS
I might move him a tick or two if he were called TODAY, but I’ve got him 20 with the idea that he’s up within the next couple of weeks anyway. There’s still a lot of downside even when he comes up, but the upside is too rich to ignore, especially at this wretched position.
love the love for Kang, thanks Paul. I think he’ll do very well the rest of the way as well, maybe something like: .280/.335/.435 with 14 HR, 15 SB?
I love Mike’s ranks, which are basically “ignore anything that’s happened through two months.” Well, not far from that.
Drew over Correa certainly doesn’t make any sense. Drew has zero upside. Correa certainly has some. Go offer Drew to the Correa guy, he’ll throw stuff at you.
I have Justin Turner at SS in Yahoo and would love to see where y’all rank him, specifically compared to Kang/Flores now that he’s a full time starter. Thanks
Turner is below both Flores and Kang for me. Right now Turner is getting everyday AB’s, but he probably will lose quite a bit of his playing time once Puig comes back and Guerrero shifts back to 3B. They could end up platooning, but even then Turner is probably looking at being a marginal (at best) fantasy option going forward due to the playing time concerns.
Yea, but have you actually seen his production? Great OBP, ISO, SLG% is top 20 in the league, he even gets a couple steals. Bats in a great lineup. Im confused as to why no one actually thinks much of him…
No Espinosa?
Wow. Desmond at #2, really? It is now June and dude has 15 RBI on the season with a team that has been pretty hot. Are you seeing something in is approach, cause he’s been god awful. The best SS thus far is Brandon Crawford and Peralta.. This position is the absolute worse, especially next season when Hanley is just an OF.