RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/2/13
Episode 7
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. It’s a very special edition of the show as we discuss the latest round of tiered rankings published this week.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via the feed. iTunes coming soon.
Approximately 42 min of joyous analysis.
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Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Yay Jaime Garcia!
If you look deep enough into the numbers, you can find something to cast doubt into a potential breakout player. Now that Buchholz is proving his skeptics wrong by exhibiting a vastly improved K rate, too many of his strikeouts are looking. It’s always something. Buchholz allowed 2 ER and struck out 22 in 22 2/3 Spring IPs this season, but the experts, yourselves included, still weren’t buying. Both of you missed on Buchholz, your rankings were way, way off. Stop trying to save face.
These are Buchholz’s looking strike rates over his career:
2007: 29%
2008: 32%
2009: 28%
2010: 26%
2011: 28%
2012: 27%
2013: 37%
Career: 28%
MLB Avg: 28%
Hmm, which season sticks out like a sore thumb? He has been league average his entire career, yet suddenly his looking strike rate has jumped 9 percentage points this year. There is literally no way this is sustainable. Unfortunately, B-Ref has no leaderboards in the metric I can find, but I would bet this rate would shatter previous season highs.
Love it guys! Keep up the good work!