Roster Trending 6/2/14: Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?

I’m back with a second edition of roster trending, checking out some of the players who have experienced the biggest ownership spikes in CBS leagues over the last week. These lists are always interesting and offers an insightful glimpse into the mind of the average fantasy owner. So let’s take a gander at who is being added in leagues and determine whether fantasy owners have the right idea.

Khris Davis – 52% owned last week, 84% this week

Swatting five homers in your last 11 games is a sure way to get fantasy owners to notice you. But we knew he had well above average power, so why did it take a good two weeks for owners to make the move? Davis still possesses atrocious plate discipline, which is strange because he has shown strong walk rates in the minors. He’s clearly abandoned that patient approach, which definitely adds to the long-term risk factor. But for this season, his batted ball distribution is fantastic and suggests better than a BABIP around the league average. In fact, it’s very Joey Votto like — before Votto forgot how to hit fly balls of course. I’d like to see some stolen base attempts, but they aren’t absolutely necessary. His current ownership percentage is much more representative of Davis’ value than his previous rate.

Lonnie Chisenhall – 33%, 60%

Fantasy owners apparently love singles hitters because that’s all that’s driving Chisenhall’s value. He’s not hitting for power, has little speed and his performance is being propped up by a ridiculous .433 BABIP. Now granted, a lot of that is earned as Chisenhall has been spraying line drives at a crazy 30.2% clip, but that itself is in no way sustainable. Perhaps he took over Chris Johnson’s body this year? Given his dicey playing time situation when his BABIP falls back to Earth, he’ll probably be back near 33% ownership at some point in the next month.

Jorge de la Rosa – 44%, 69%

I had to check the game logs, because I had no idea that de la Rosa was on such a strong run. After allowing 14 runs over his first three starts, he’s allowed just 10 over his last eight (one of which was rain-shortened). His fastball velocity is up, he’s generating ground balls and his control has been acceptable. Coors Field does and will always scare me, but he’s showing good skills and has done so in the past. I think his current ownership rate is fair, but I have a feeling it will bounce around a lot throughout the season.

Oscar Taveras – 66%, 89%

Well this is no surprise. The uber prospect was recalled as a result of a calf injury sustained by Matt Adams that sent him to the DL. While it doesn’t seem like Adams will miss a significant chunk of time, Taveras does have center field experience. Given how poorly Peter Bourjos has hit and Jon Jay is so blah, it’s conceivable that Taveras remains with the big club even after Adams returns, assuming he performs respectable of course.

I do think he’s being a bit overrated in fantasy leagues right now though. He hasn’t really shown great power in the minors and his biggest strength is his ability to make contact. A powerful contact hitter is rare, and that kind of combination does offer enormous upside. But I don’t think that power is going to be there yet, even though he has already homered. With only a touch of speed, he might just be a .290, 15 homer guy now. That’s near replacement level in 12-team mixed leagues.

Jaime Garcia – 43%, 66%

It’s that time again, when the oft-injured Garcia is back on the mound and teases fantasy owners until he hits the DL once again. After returning from shoulder surgery, I’m pretty shocked that Garcia’s fastball is sitting at its highest average velocity of his career. He’s throwing strikes, generating lots of swings and misses and inducing tons of grounders. In other words, his skills have been fantastic, as a cursory glance at his 2.16 SIERA would confirm. Garcia has always pitched well when actually taking the field and I expect his ownership rate to continue to rise. It’s pretty silly that de la Rosa is owned in more leagues, as Garcia should be owned in all 12-team leagues and deeper and probably the majority of 10-teamers as well.