Chasing Chase: Why You Should Consider Headley
I will start by saying, unlike my last post on Ike Davis, this is not going to cover a player I am typically a fan of. I’ve never been a Chase Headley owner, in any league. But part of what has had me staying away from Headley is the belief by some of my league mates that he is a near-MVP candidate.
That 2012 season looms large in many people’s minds, but the reality is, Headley was never truly a 30-HR hitter, particularly in that park. Now, however, I am seeing signs that a rough start to 2014 are starting to break some of the Headley-lovers out there, and that may mean there is an opportunity.
Headley followed up his 2012 breakout with a .250/.347/.400 year with 13 HR and 8 SB, which is not a bad year for a fantasy MI. But Headley is a 3B and that just won’t fly at the hot corner. 2014 doesn’t look much better on the surface – the power is up 5 HR already is a near 20-HR pace – but a .199/.286/.324 line is not getting anyone excited.
A layer deeper though, things look good. Headley is slicing line drives at a 26% rate, yet has a .237 BABIP after Sunday’s action. As of Wednesday, Headley had a 35.8% hard hit rate and a .303 expected BABIP. Both are just a bit above average, and both also suggest that .237 (and the related .199, .286 and .324) is a mirage (can mirages be bad? I assume mirages can be bad).
Batted ball distance, meanwhile, suggests the power boost may be legit. In addition to the scorching line drive rate, Headley is hitting fly balls slightly more often than the last couple years (higher than he has since 2010, actually) and he is hitting those balls with more distance than he did last year. In that stellar 2012 season, Headley had an average HR and FB distance of 300.7 feet, which is elite and explains that 31 HR output. In 2013, it was down to 281.9 (just below where it was in 2011). This year, he is back up to 286.1, and that was before the monster HR he hit in Chicago on Sunday.
Obviously that distance doesn’t touch the 2012 numbers, but with a few more FB and a bit more distance, maybe he could split the difference between 2012 and 2013 and end up around 20 HR. It’s certainly possible.
Oh, and one more thing – Headley is nearing free agency and the Padres are nearing last place. With the Wild Card opportunities that exist, they are not yet out of the race, but they will be, meaning Headley may find himself out of Petco even before 2015. Not only out of Petco, but out of road games in San Francisco and Los Angeles, which are not exactly hitter friendly themselves.
Don’t mistake Chase Headley for something he is not. 20 HR is still upside, not likelihood. But an average pushing .290 and an on-base over .350 the rest of the way are definitely in play, particularly if that line drive rate stays up.
If you can find an owner who has decided Headley simply is not a starting 3B, now is as good a time as any to buy. He isn’t about to become a star, but he isn’t nearly as bad as he looks.
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's is the Managing Editor for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.
Is hard hit rate a stat on fangraphs? What is it’s initial?
No, it’s not. I had my go-to data guru, Jeff Zimmerman, run it for me (and calculate the xBABIP, which incorporates hard hit rate.
Do you like Headley to outperform the likes of Garret Jones, Casey McGehee and even Kendrys Morales ROS?
Those 13 HR he hit last year were the second most he has hit in a season. His FB% and HR/FB% are slightly up from last year, but given the time he has already missed with injury, he almost certainly won’t get the PAs, meaning 13-15 HR would probably be his ceiling. I’d think you would get more out of Jones (higher FB% and HR/FB%), for sure, but he doesn’t have 3B eligibility, so it kind of depends on need. If you only need a CI, then definitely Jones. I’m not a fan of McGehee (empty average) and Morales will likely have some rust to knock off if/when he does come back.
His fly ball distance is better this year than last, and this is still a guy who hit 20 over two levels in 2007 and 22 over two levels in 2008, plus had a 31 HR year. The time he already lost actually works in his favor for this analysis – he is hitting at a 20 HR pace when he plays and nothing in his current profile suggests that is a fluke. The missed time may prevent him from getting to 20, but not from continuing a 20 HR pace. And if I pick him up today, the time he lost doesn’t matter moving forward.
Using the ZiPS and Steamer projections for ABs and his current FB% and HR/FB%, I got 11.7-12 HR ROS. Using the same, half assed, back of envelope calculation for Jones, I get 13.9-16.1 ROS. BB% is actually identical this year and Headley has 1 steal so far and may not run as much this year with his earlier leg injury (I know, speculation). As long as Jones can keep hitting ~260, I still think he is slightly more valuable (at CI). Just one man’s opinion though.
Better avg/obp, more steals, fewer HR than Jones, but I think the HR will be closer from here out than most people suspect.
I’d definitely take Chase over McGehee.
Same analysis for Morales as I had for Jones, but with the added issue of Morales being not a major league player and all. From today forward, Headley>Morales. From the day Morales re-enters the big leagues, if he is playing everyday, I’d likely take him over Headley.
Where does the .290 come from? I understand the BABIP regression, but even with that the projections are not positive.
2 + 9 + 0 /2 + 9
290 idiot
Yeah, the pushing .290 is a bit aggressive, but he has hit close to .290 twice and is posting a career high LD% while his contact rate is creeping back up to where it was in those .286 and .289 seasons.
scrubby dub dub thats what my dad says when i get in the bathtub, but thats what i say when i c a bsut. no more long balls no more value. bye chase 2 bad ur not as kool as utley
Headley or Gyorko ROS? (Ignore Gyorko 2B eligibility)
ZiPS still likes Gyorko’s power to show up.. but I haven’t watched him and his batting line is just god awful. Doesn’t inspire much hope.
Not sure you can ignore the eligibility – it is a huge influence on his value. If you need a 3B for this year, I would go Headley. But if I had Gyorko at 3B I would find a team that wants some pop out of MI and get an even better 3B via trade.
This is some of the loudest whistling in the dark past the graveyard I have ever heard.
Would you consider dropping chase if you could pick up Brock Holt (whose been hot) for your 3rd baseman?
I am actually starting Holt right now in a league where I have an injured Arenado who was backed up by Asche who I only have to handcuff Franco, and in which my emergency option was moving Gyorko from MI. So I like Holt a bit and have seen what he has been doing. But including the minors, the guy has never hit more than 6 HR in a calendar year, and that was in A ball in 2009. He has some speed…but really not a ton of SB. And he has a .413 BABIP. I’d rather stick with Headley. If you can hold them both and use Holt while he is hot and when Headley is at home, that is fine, but I’m not buying Holt right now.