Reviewing Starting Pitchers that Baffle Rankers: The Top 100

Let’s continue where I left off before Christmas when I reviewed the hitters that baffled the rankers in the top 100 and switch things up to the starting pitcher side of the ledger. Since we had five rankers for our preseason consensus, it was only natural that there would be some players we disagreed on. Sure, we didn’t rank everyone exactly the same, but most were in the general vicinity. For these players that were part of our preseason top 100, our opinions were all over the map. Let’s find out who got it right. The original writeup is here and here is the top 300 the “Actual” ranking is pulled from.

Comparing the Rankers: Matt Harvey

NAME	Jeff	Dan	Mike	Paul	Zach	Actual
Matt Harvey	202	66	176	127	121	42

Returning from Tommy John surgery made Harvey a difficult man to project. How many innings will he pitch? Will his control take several months to be regained? Will his velocity be there? Welp, Harvey answered all those questions and probably outperformed even the most optimistic of Mets fans. Sure, his strikeout rate was down a smidge and he required a .272 BABIP and hefty LOB% to post a sub-3.00 ERA, but his fastball velocity was spot on and control as pinpoint as ever. In the original article, I noted that I had pushed my innings projection up from 160 to 180, which boosted his ranking from the 176 you see above to 135. Still nowhere close to how he actually performed, but at least I was a lot closer to the pack!

Comparing the Rankers: Masahiro Tanaka

NAME	Jeff	Dan	Mike	Paul	Zach	Actual
Masahiro Tanaka	105	148	192	152	100	92

Tanaka’s partially torn UCL was all the rage a year ago, which led me to project just 140 innings. He actually didn’t amass too many more than that at 154 innings, but that 0.99 WHIP was mighty valuable. He could thank a suppressed .242 BABIP for that, which oddly paired with a 16.9% HR/FB rate. Soooo, was he allowing hard contact or not? Only on fly balls, while he induced weak ground ball and line drive contact? My mind is blown. He obviously remains a health risk.

Comparing the Rankers: Hisashi Iwakuma

NAME	Jeff	Dan	Mike	Paul	Zach	Actual
Hisashi Iwakuma	138	76	68	139	78	174

A trio of us were all in a similar ballpark here, while the remaining pair had nearly identical rankings. Turns out we were all too optimistic! The injury bug was the culprit here, as Iwakuma was limited to just 129.2 innings. He posted near identical rates as 2014, when he ranked 112th overall. His overall skills have remained extremely consistent, but health questions could lead to a discount in drafts this year…once again.

Comparing the Rankers: Gio Gonzalez

NAME	Jeff	Dan	Mike	Paul	Zach	Actual
Gio Gonzalez	181	108	111	114	167	269

Gio endured a strange season, as he posted an inflated .341 BABIP, but offset that poor fortune with a 5.9% HR/FB rate. This is exactly opposite of what happened to Tanaka. Weird. His strikeout rate also fell to its lowest mark since 2010, but his ground ball rate surged to a new career high. That inflated BABIP increased his WHIP to an unacceptable 1.42, his highest mark in a full season. That was the primary driver of that disappointing ranking.

Comparing the Rankers: Lance Lynn

NAME	Jeff	Dan	Mike	Paul	Zach	Actual
Lance Lynn	111	113	157	190	157	166

Lynn was one of the few guys where we had a pair of optimistic rankers, a duo in the middle, and yet a last rank much more bearish. Typically, we have seen just the bullish and bearish groups and no middle ground. Lynn missed some time with a forearm strain, which as is often the case, led to off-season TJ surgery. He still managed to post a 3.03 ERA when it was clear that his elbow was problematic for at least part of the year. Once again, Lynn significantly outperformed his SIERA, thanks to continued HR/FB suppression skills and an inflated LOB%, despite a high BABIP.

Comparing the Rankers: Jeff Samardzija

NAME	Jeff	Dan	Mike	Paul	Zach	Actual
Jeff Samardzija	128	93	87	81	150	Outside top 300

Oh gosh. We knew a move to a hitter friendly park that boosts home runs could be troublesome for Samardzija, who has sported inflated HR/FB rates throughout his career. But that wasn’t even the issue, and he actually posted a HR/FB rate just below his career average this past season. Instead, it was primarily a tumbling strikeout rate, exacerbated by a jump in fly ball rate and a suppressed LOB%. We have no idea what exactly happened that led to that substantial strikeout rate drop, but he may have signed with the best possible team for his rebound potential. At his likely cost, I’m probably buying him all in leagues.