A Minor Review of 2015: Chicago Cubs

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

A Minor Review of 2015: Cubs

The Graduate: Kris Bryant, 3B: When you look at Bryant’s rookie season and see 199 strikeouts in 151 games, you might think it was a disaster. Nothing could be further from the truth, though. The rookie third baseman finished 10th in WAR in all of baseball. Looking at just his offensive contributions, he was in a three-way tie with Arizona’s A.J. Pollock and Colorado’s Nolan Arenado for the 17th-best wOBA. Bryant has some work to do making more consistent contact but he also didn’t tap into his full power potential (A scary thought!). And if the young, promising Cubs hitters around Bryant continue to develop, he’ll be even more valuable to fantasy managers in the years to come.

The Riser: Willson Contreras, C: Our very own Carson Cistulli was all over Contreras like a fat kid on a Smartie this past season. The catcher came out of nowhere to become one of the Cubs’ more intriguing prospects. He significantly improved his plate discipline while moving up from A-ball to Double-A for the first time in his career. Contreras, 23, averaged a strikeout rate of about 20% between 2012-14 but saw it drop to just 12% in 2015. Not only that, he showed more pop and took more walks. With Kyle Schwarber likely relocated to the outfield from catcher for good, Contreras is the catcher-of-the-future in Chicago.

The Tumbler: Dan Vogelbach, 1B: The first baseman lost valuable development time in 2015 due to hamstring and oblique injuries. The good news is that they’re not likely to be lingering, long-term issues. The first baseman reached Double-A for the first time — after four years in A-ball or lower — but appeared in just 76 games. He showed a great approach at the plate with a BB-K of 57-61 but his power dipped to an ISO of .154, the lowest in his career and not a great number for a first baseman — from a position expected to produce big power numbers. With Anthony Rizzo entrenched at first in Chicago, Vogelbach may be headed to an American League team to play first base or DH — once he regains some trade value.

The ’15 Draft Pick: Ian Happ, OF: I wasn’t a huge fan of Chicago’s choice of Happ in the 2015 draft but he was considered one of the top college outfielders available. In his pro debut, he produced an excellent amount of power and got on base on a strong clip. Unfortunately, he also swung and missed a lot. With so many good, young bats ahead of him, Happ will have all the time in the world to polish his skills.

The Lottery Ticket: Dylan Cease, RHP: The Cubs have spent a lot of money on young pitching in the last few years and Cease is one of the best. He was considered a potential first rounder in 2014 before an elbow injury — that led to Tommy John surgery — caused him to fall to Chicago in the sixth round. Signed for $1.5 million, Cease rehabbed in 2014 and didn’t make his debut until ’15. He showed outstanding stuff upon his return and struck out 25 batters in 24 innings but also struggled with both his command and control. He might get a chance to move up to full-season ball in 2016 but the organization could also decide to be cautious with Cease and have him open the year in extended spring training.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Paul Allen
8 years ago

Vogelbach seems like a bit of a stretch as a tumbler, no? 22 year old in AA with an 18.2% BB rate/19.5% K rate/140 wRC+ seems perfectly fine to me. Sure, the power was lacking, but he was dealing with leg and core injuries all year.

I think a better tumbler would be Jake Stinnett, who had some helium going into last season, was looked at as a fast riser in the system, and ended up with an underwhelming year in A ball.