Reviewing Fun With Tiny Sample Sizes — Pitcher Edition 2026

Let’s continue reviewing early season articles, moving on to the fun I had discussing the tiny sample size pitching leaderboards. As I did with the batter edition, I’ll name the player and the fun tiny sample size stat that vaulted them at or near the top of that metric’s leaderboard.

José Soriano | Leading baseball with 99.1 MPH four-seam fastball velocity

That velocity was 1.2 MPH higher than last year and 0.2 MPH higher than his previous career high mark set in 2023. Sadly, that first start would prove to be his high water mark for the season. In fact, he didn’t even average higher than 98.4 MPH in a start after that! His full season average was just 97.1 MPH, so talk about adrenaline in that first start. Incredibly, that 97.1 MPH full season average was a full 0.8 MPH lower than last year and continues a downtrend each season.

If you hadn’t forgotten, he posted an 0.84 ERA through April and a 3.33 SIERA with a 30.1% strikeout rate. Since I didn’t own him anywhere, I didn’t realize this velocity jumped failed to hold, so although he had obviously been fortunate so far, I kind of believed this was the breakout. Instead, he posted a 4.88 ERA and 4.25 SIERA with just a 20.6% strikeout rate over the rest of the season. So much for that breakout! It also goes to show how hard it is to predict which first game velocity spikes will last and which will end up proving to be flukes.

Cam Schlittler | Leader in Sinker velocity

After his first start, his velocities were up across the board, which is scary to opposing hitters since his velocity was already high. Like Soriano, though, Schlittler also couldn’t hold that velocity, but his results weren’t straight downhill. Instead, he didn’t match his first game sinker velocity until game eight. For the season, his sinker velocity ended up just a tad higher than last year, while his more frequently used four-seamer was identical. His cutter velocity was up significantly though, as was his curve. Interestingly, both pitch models graded his cutter as a bit worse this year, but his curve better.

I like Schlittler like anyone else, but am fairly confident he’ll be overvalued next year. I have a hard time believing a 28.8% CSW% will result in another strikeout rate over 30%, and he overperformed his ERA estimators by about a run.

Bryan Woo | Leader with 71.1% four-seamers in first start

Welp, that didn’t last! He finished the season with an almost identical four-seamer usage as last year. All of his velocities remained stable or better, his pitch modeling metrics remained strong, but a complete reversal in his LOB% fortune pushed his ERA above four for the first time since his half season debut back in 2023. I wasn’t a big fan of his given the pedestrian CSW%, but he was clearly unlucky this year and might actually be in this time. Even without a strong strikeout rate, his control is elite, which ensures a valuable WHIP.

Max Meyer | Leader with 53.1% slider usage

Injury limited him to just 20 starts, but he actually did maintain a higher slider usage. Actually, he threw his slider even more over the rest of the season, as his final season rate was a crazy 56.1%! That makes sense, as it’s far and away his best pitch by the pitch models. Of course, there’s probably a good health reason why starters don’t usually throw sliders that often, so we’ll see how long he can sustain such a rate.

What’s interesting here is the real disconnect in stuff ratings between his PitchingBot Stf (59, well above average) and his Stuff+ (98, just below average). Which one should we believe?

Will Warren | Leader in four-seam fastball Stuff+

After his first-start, Warren’s four-seamer was up 1.4 MPH in velocity. Given that he was already a deep breakout candidate, the increased velocity made him quite intriguing. Unfortunately, he trended in the same direction as some of the others, as he failed to average 94+ MPH again in 12 of his next 15 starts. As a result, his full season velocity finished only marginally above last year and 0.1 MPH lower than his 2024 debut.

He was looking fantastic through April, still pretty solid through May, and then the wheels fell off. He ultimately finished with similar skills to last year, but a higher LOB% pushed his ERA just below 4.00. He needs to get that SwStr% into double digits to have any chance of a real breakout.

Michael McGreevy | Worst four-seam fastball Stuff+

After his first start, his four-seam velocity was down two miles per hour and generated a tiny 5.2% SwStr%. Luckily, it jumped in his third start to average just over 92 MPH, but he ended up only averaging 93+ MPH in three starts, after averaging that all season last year. Of course, we know that it didn’t matter a whole lot, as despite an ugly 16.4% strikeout rate, he massively overperformed his ERA estimators.

He’ll be a guy many might think is a safe, cheap name to fill out a rotation. In reality, there’s no upside here with such a low strikeout rate, and his ERA estimators suggest the downside is serious. He’s an ideal name to throw out early in an NL-Only league auction when owners are flush with money.

Logan Gilbert | 175 Stuff+ on splitter, highest of any pitch, plus highest changeup Stuff+ at 144

Gilbert’s splitter has always been his best pitch and one of the most elite in baseball, and as a result, I feel like it’s weird he’s never thrown it even 20% of the time. Would it lose some effectiveness if he threw it more? He actually did end up with his highest ever Stuff+ on the pitch.

According to Statcast, he brought back his changeup for the first time since 2022, but I’m wondering if the system mixes up the pitch with his splitter. Coming off a 3.73 ERA, I’m wondering if he’ll be slightly undervalued.

Framber Valdez | Second highest Stuff+ pitch, slider at 174 (but barely used), plus second highest curve Stuff+ at 156 and changeup Stuff+ at 141

As a Valdez owner, I was super excited after his first start. Would that superior stuff lead to a big strikeout rate breakout? NOPE! Even though his Slider finished with his second highest Stuff+, his curve actually ended up at its lowest, as did his changeup. While his overall Stuff+ remained above average, it did hit its second lowest mark, and his strikeout rate plummeted to a career worst 17.8%, the first time it fell below 20%. Naturally, the first time I owned him!

I have no idea what happened here as everything looks fine under the hood. Since his strikeout rate was never among the leaders, there’s risk here if he doesn’t get his house in order. But I’ll still blindly call for improvement and feel like there’s a good chance he’ll end up on my roster again.

Cade Cavalli | Ranked second in slider Stuff+ at 147

Finally, a real breakout predicted from this list! Of course, his slider wasn’t nearly as epic as that first game as it finished with a good, but not great, 111 Stuff+. Given his pedestrian PitchingBot and Stuff+ numbers, it’s actually quite surprising he had the breakout season he did.

The skills look good here and he didn’t benefit from any good fortune as he barely overperformed his SIERA, though his xERA suggests he didn’t deserve such strong results. I think he’ll probably be a bit overvalued as there’s bound to be an owner or two in your league who thinks he’s become an ace. I wouldn’t bank on that strikeout rate repeating and think he’ll probably disappoint as his expected price, even if he does finish with a 3.80 ERA, for example.

Taj Bradley | Second highest overall Stuff+

With increased four-seam velocity, this was the first hint of an impending breakout. Fortunately, it came true, giving this list another win. His Stuff+ obviously didn’t remain that high, but did greatly rebound from last year, setting a new high, though just barely above his 2023 and 2024 marks. The bad news is that his Location+, which has been problematic historically, was no better and right in line with his career average. It all led to a middling 100 Pitching+, to go along with a 4.44 botERA.

Some of that likely has to do with whatever caused his walk rate to jump into double digits for the first time. At his age, it’s very possible, and probably likely, that he improves his control, and then could be a sudden dramatic improvement. I don’t think there’s any more strikeout rate upside at this point given his mediocre SwStr% and CSW%, which weren’t aided by increased velocity.

I lucked out on his breakout this year, I’m probably not willing to press my luck in 2027 and an increased price.

Cole Ragans | Lowest Location+ at 75, velocity and Stuff+ down

The down results looks like a harbinger of things to come, as he ended up making just eight poor starts before undergoing elbow surgery. Sometimes these sudden declines could be real indicators of injury, but it’s not an automatic reason to panic.

He’s now missed big chunks of the last two seasons, so his future is very much up in the air at this point. That said, with stuff this good, I’ll always be willing to roll the dice if the price is reasonable. It’s anyone’s guess when he’s back next season though and how his recovery goes. Worth an injury stash in leagues with an IL slot.

Reid Detmers | Third in Pitching+

Here’s another hit! He didn’t quite remain the third highest Stuff, settling in at 12, but that’s still quite an accomplishment after pitching in relief all of last year and posting just a 101 Pitching+ in his previous season as a full-time starter.

It wasn’t actually his Stuff+ driving the increased Pitching+, as that matched his 2024 season. Instead, it was his Location+, which was significantly higher than his pre-2025 years, represented the second highest mark of his career. I think Location+ is a bit more random season to season than Stuff+, so I’m less optimistic about a repeat than if this year’s breakout was driven by an improvement in stuff.

A lot of the breakout was his fortune flipping. Instead of an inflated BABIP well over .300, it hit a career low. His HR/FB rate also returned to single digits for the first time. I’m curious to see what his price will be next year as he was such an afterthought heading into this season. A buyer is banking on that walk rate improvement sticking and his team’s offense not totally stinking so he isn’t stuck in single digits in the wins column again.

Michael King | Worst Pitching+

This was obviously a surprise! It was mostly driven by an absurdly low Location+, which I just mentioned above is fluky from start to start. For the year, his Location+ was right where he normally posted, but his Stuff+ actually hit its lowest since 2020. yet he somehow still managed a 3.21 ERA.

His strikeout rate plummeted and walk rate rose, but a career low BABIP and a second straight 80%+ LOB% drove ERA estimator overperformance. He’s a free agent this year and I wonder how much teams will value him based on his historical ERAs versus the significant decline in underlying skills and jump in ERA estimators. He’s a good name to throw out early.