Reviewing Fun With Tiny Sample Sizes — Batter Edition 2026

Even though we weren’t even a week into the regular season, I had a bit of fun with tiny sample sizes at the end of March. Obviously, you wouldn’t conclude much, or anything, from stats so early in the season. But maybe some of these proved to actually be early signals? Let’s review the batters I highlighted and the metrics they stood out on and find out if the early performance proved meaningful.

Shea Langeliers | .959 wOBA, .811 wOBA, 3 HR over first 9 PA

Is it possible to have opened the season hotter than Langeliers?! Unfortunately, this was not a sign of a 40-homer massive breakout. He posted a .335 wOBA the rest of the way and 15% HR/FB rate, the latter of which represents the second lowest of his career. He did hold onto some of his strikeout rate gains, which really benefited his batting average. What’s exciting here is his BatSpd jumped to a career best, and although the results didn’t improve, his xwOBA actually spiked to a career high. Assuming he could maintain this strikeout rate or better, he looks like a good candidate to return to the 30-homer plateau next season.

Cal Raleigh | 69.2% strikeout rate

Well then! It was only three games, but this red flag certainly would have come in handy if heeded! Raleigh posted a 30% strikeout rate the rest of the way, which was his highest since his 2021 debut. Of course, he also massively disappointed offensively, recording his lowest wOBA since his debut after enjoying a historic performance, particularly by a catcher, last year. He still posted a strong mid-teen Barrel% and his BatSpd remained in line, so it’s pretty shocking those marks only resulted in a 13.5% HR/FB rate and .186 ISO. I think he endured some bad fortune and injuries likely hampered his rates. There was no way he was going to repeat 2025, even with neutral luck and good health. But he should be a near lock to return to 30 homers and at least perform as he did in 2023 and 2024. I’m curious if he’ll be undervalued. Note that he’s a much stronger choice in OBP formats given the combination of a low batting average, but high walk rate.

Mike Trout | Major League WAR leader, 1 steal already

It was not quite the comeback fantasy season, even though he recorded his highest PA total since 2016. The problem here is that his power suddenly plummeted, with his HR/FB rate and ISO both falling to career worsts. That’s surprising, since all his Statcast metrics remained strong and in line with recent seasons when his HR/FB rate remained in the low-20% range. Even weirder is that he actually increased his flyball Pull% to its highest mark since 2021, so it wasn’t a case of suddenly losing the ability to pull his flies. I think his power clearly rebounds next season, but you certainly can’t count on another 600+ PA.

The positive from the first couple of games was that he stole a base, which actually did hint at what was to come, as he swiped 10 more the rest of the way. He ended up with 11, which matched his stolen bases total from 2022 to 2025 combined!

Jorge Polanco & Junior Caminero | 50% walk rate

Nope, this meant nothing for Polanco, who walked just 3% of the time when he was actually healthy enough to step to the plate. Injury limited him to just 145 PA as his power completely collapsed.

On the other hand, this was actually a foreshadowing of Caminero’s walk rate spike, as he walked 10.7% of the time over the rest of the season. That compares to just 6.3% last year, representing a significant jump. Incredibly, since his tiny sample debut in 2023, his walk rate has climbed each year, while his strikeout rate has declined. This is how a future Hall of Famer trends.

Matt Olson & Jake Burger | 1.000 BABIP

Surprise, that BABIP didn’t last! Olson’s sat at just .272 the rest of the way, his lowest since 2021, while Burger’s sat at .265, the lowest of his career. Obviously, early season BABIP, especially this early, means absolutely nothing.

On a non-BABIP related note, be aware that most of Olson’s home run rebound was driven by a career high FB%. There’s no way to predict whether he repeats that rate or falls back to his career average, so don’t assume he’s back to being around a 40-homer guy after two straight sub-30 homer seasons.

Luke Raley & Carson Benge | 66.7% & 50% Barrel%

Raley posted a 13.9% Barrel% the rest of the way, which was a career high, driving a big HR/FB rate rebound that ended up ranking as his second highest. Too bad injury limited him to half a season as he could have threatened the 30-homer plateau.

Benge posted just a 7.1% Barrel% the rest of the way, but it was enough for a low double digit HR/FB rate, leading to a 20/20 season. I’d guess he’ll be a bit overvalued next season as I don’t see too much further upside from these counting stats or batting average. I would imagine there’s at least some who are thinking 25/25 is next, and I’m not one of them.

Chase Meidroth | 1.167 SLG

This is what a homer and a double over six at-bats does for your numbers. He ended up posting a .407 SLG and 12.4% HR/FB rate over the rest of the season, which was most definitely well above even the most optimistic projections. So in this case, the early performance was actually a signal. It’s too bad he stopped stealing bases, as he could have been a nice little all-around contributor with a potentially 15/15 season.

Denzel Clarke | BatSpd up 5.1 MPH

It had only been four swings at the time, which is the ultimate tiny sample. Over those swings, he posted a BatSpd of 79.4 MPH, compared to 74.3 MPH during his 2025 cup of coffee. Of course, it didn’t quite last, as his BatSpd the rest of the way fell to 76.7 MPH. BUT, that was still 2.4 MPH higher than last year, a significant jump. He spent most of the season on the injured list so we never got a real chance to see how his offense could benefit from the increased BatSpd.

The skill set here is fascinating as he strikes out a lot, rarely hits fly balls, hits the ball harder than average and with a maxEV over 110 MPH, but his Barrel% is tiny (it’s affected by the low FB%) and his BatSpd went from good to near elite. There are lots of flaws and lots of seeds for growth. Worth a speculation in deep leagues, depending on his role.

Cam Smith | BatSpd up 2.7 MPH

After a disappointing rookie season, I was intrigued by Smith’s Statcast metrics, which suggested serious power upside. Then his BatSpd jumped in his first couple of games and I wondered if that power spike was on its way. Unlike Clarke, Smith actually increased his BatSpd even higher over the rest of the season, representing a 3.4 MPH gain, which is exactly where he ended the season. It fueled a power surge indeed, as his HR/FB rate spiked to the mid-teens and ISO went from .122 to .180. He still didn’t end up all that valuable in fantasy thanks to a .248 BABIP resulting in a .210 batting average, plus weak RBI and runs scored numbers. But that’ll just make him cheaper next season. If he manages to maintain those BatSpd gains, I’m definitely buying.

Mauricio Dubón & TJ Rumfield | 100% FB% & 83.3% FB%

In a shocking twist, Dubón did not record a 100% FB% the rest of the season and did indeed hit some grounders and line drives, even some pop-ups! His 40.8% FB% the rest of the way was barely higher than last year, though did represent his highest since 2022. More importantly, he set a new career high in PA with over 600, the first time he reached even 500.

Rumfield posted a 38.1% FB% the rest of the way, which was nearly identical to his Triple-A mark last year. It’s too bad, as a massive FB% in Coors Field would have been fun to see. Of course, with limited power, Rumfield shouldn’t be hitting a ton of fly balls to begin with.