Reviewing 2016 Pod’s Picks & Pans: First Base

Yesterday, we published the final 2016 first base rankings and dollar values. So let’s review my preseason Pod’s Picks and Pans at the position, where I identified those hitters I was most bullish and bearish on compared to the rest of my fellow RotoGraphs rankers.

The fun part of determining who actually ends up as Picks and Pans is that they always surprise me. I had no idea I was higher on Chris Davis until I ran the math! Obviously, the consensus turned out to be closer, but it wasn’t as if I was foolishly bullish here — my projected line was right where the other systems had him forecasted. What killed his value and any chance of finishing inside the top 10 in value was that .279 BABIP, which is just the second time since 2010 that his BABIP slipped below .300. His LD% fell to a career low and he continues his penchant for the fly ball, but the increasing usage of the shift in recent years likely hurts as well. Jeff Zimmerman thinks he was playing hurt this year, which if true, is pretty amazing given that he still mustered a .239 ISO. Perhaps he’s undervalued slightly next year.

Man, Ryan Zimmerman was all over my upside lists, so naturally he appeared as a “pick” of mine, though at just 20, he was really not much more than a near replacement level corner infielder in 12-team mixed leagues. Sadly, he didn’t even earn positive value in that role. And the consensus nearly nailed this one. This was a two-pronged risk — both in terms of health/playing time and performance. He was somewhat healthier than in 2015, but his BABIP, ISO, K%, BB%, and wOBA all hit career worsts. It was a bad year at the plate and at age 31, you have to wonder how much is health related and how much is just age-related decline. On the bright side, he can’t get much worse or cheaper to roster than this, right?!

Buster Posey was silly to include on the list because no one is playing him at first base. I adjusted his catcher value from the calculator to what it would be if he filled the first base slot and his down season ensured the consensus was closer in rank. He posted a career low BABIP and missed the memo about the leaguewide power surge, as his HR/FB rate fell to a career worst mark. Catchers are always difficult to project and he’ll be 30 next season. Perhaps the silver lining is he comes cheaper than ever before?

As I said in my initial writeup, two ranking spots isn’t much to really suggest I was bearish on Jose Abreu, but value gaps are certainly largest near the top, versus the middle and bottom of the rankings. The question with Abreu was whether he was closer to his elite debut in 2014 or to his still excellent, albeit less so, 2015 season. I thought his 2015 season was closer to his true talent level, which technically turned out to be correct, but he was worse than everyone projected. Only a strong second half saved him from a truly disappointing year. I think this is a buying opportunity as his 14.8% HR/FB rate is sure to rebound.

For years I have felt Freddie Freeman has been overvalued, even though I admitted that his skill set screams major power breakout any season now. I just didn’t know when that was going to happen. Well, it happened. He swung and missed more than ever, resulting in a career high strikeout rate, but he also upped his fly ball rate and his HR/FB rate spiked to a new career high. Oh, and he BABIP’d .370, which actually seems fully supported by a 29.1% LD% and few pop-ups. Having yet to dive into the underlying metrics driving the power outburst, I feel like he can come close to this level again.

It’s fun when you see a hitter rebound off a career worst season by enjoying a career best season. That’s exactly what Carlos Santana did, as he cut his strikeout rate to a career best and then combined a fly ball rate increase with a career best HR/FB rate. That’s literally all the ingredients of a home run spike. Sadly, he still cannot convert balls in play into hits at anywhere near a league average clip, so he’s never going to be an all-around contributor. Heading into his age 31 season, I’m betting on regression here, but his 2014 numbers look reasonable to expect.

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Well, this was an awful showing! Six picks and pans total and I was closer than the consensus on only one of them! Oh well, as Happy Gilmore was told, better luck next year!