Let’s Get Real…muto

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Sorry for the title. Let’s move on. At the start of this season, I recommended J.T. Realmuto as someone deep-league managers should target for his speed and his price. At the time, Realmuto was coming off a season in which he led his position in stolen bases during a year in which steals were at a 20 year low. He was also going 17^th overall at catcher in public leagues, despite being picked 10^th in NFBC drafts. Given that Realmuto popped 10 homers while lacking the typical red flags of a regression candidate, he seemed criminally overlooked during drafts and possibly primed for a breakout. So how’d he do?

 

Chances are if you drafted Realmuto, you were very happy with your investment. Based on performance alone, the fleet-footed 25-year old backstop was the fifth most valuable catcher this season. More importantly though, Realmuto drastically outperformed his draft price and, in that sense, he was the second most valuable player at the position behind Wilson Ramos. He provided a standout performance despite hitting just 11 home runs, which underscores the value he provided with respect to batting average and stolen bases.

Realmuto finished the season slashing .303/.343/.428 with a .333 wOBA. While he benefitted from a slight uptick in walks and a significant jump in batting average, Realmuto’s power took a step back. His .126 ISO represents a 21-point drop from his 2015 season. So let’s take a look and see what he did differently.

Well, nothing apparently. Realmuto’s Statcast data is eerily constant year-over-year but you’ll notice the huge spike in BABIP. Could a three mile per hour jump in groundball exit velocity account for a 44-point increase in batting average? Unlikely. Using Alex Chamberlain’s xBABIP equation, Realmuto’s 2015 and 2016 xBABIPs are .326 and .315, respectively suggesting he was equally fortunate this year as he was unlucky last. Given the nearly identical Statcast data, I’m inclined to believe that the batting average contributions that his owners enjoyed this season will prove little more than a mirage in 2017.

A closer look at his plate discipline confirms that Realmuto is basically the same hitter he was last year. He swung slightly less in 2016, both in and out of the zone, while also whiffing more. Both his walk and strikeout rates increased incrementally but Realmuto still remains on the wrong side of league average on the selectivity indicators and the right side when it comes to contact.

That said, there was a stretch this past season when Realmuto seemed like a completely different hitter. From June through August, he slashed .314/.369/.439, saw his walk rate “jump” to 7.2%, and stole 9 bases. He also severely cut down on his chase rate and improved his zone contact. But Realmuto’s power simply stagnated and even though he walked more, he struck out more as well. Again, his true talent was obscured by an unsustainable BABIP. But let’s dig through what he did during those three months to see if anything might prove sustainable.

Going back to last season, Realmuto loved the pitch up-and-in. He guarded the inside of the plate and swung often at pitches high-and-tight, especially fastballs. For a small but productive stretch in 2016, Realmuto became more selective, laying off pitches inside for those over the middle and outside parts of the plate.

We’re looking at Realmuto’s swing distribution on fastballs from 2015 through the first two months of 2016 on the left and from June through August of 2016 on the right. One would think that by eschewing pitches inside for those over the plate, he’d go to the opposite field more often, in part contributing to the inflated BABIPs we saw this season. But no, Realmulto’s pull percentage actually increased over this stretch. More significantly however, so did his line drive and hard hit rates. The resulting BABIP, in conjunction with more discerning plate discipline, helped Realmulto to the most productive stretch of his young career.

In September however, he lost the zone and started swinging at everything. His line drive rate and the quality of his contact both tanked and despite experiencing a small power surge due to some HR/FB% fortune, Realmulto’s wRC+ just barely treaded water.

The most perplexing part of Realmuto’s season might be the sudden emergence of a reverse platoon split.

That he suddenly improved against right-handed pitching despite a 50% groundball rate and 13.6% pop-up rate, both career highs, suggests that again we’re looking at BABIP noise rather than any substantive improvement or change in approach. And while his heatmaps show he chased balls far off the plate slightly less in 2016 than in 2015, it didn’t necessarily translate into better contact.

That’s 2015’s ISO/P against righties on the left and 2016’s on the right. While perhaps more stable, his wheelhouse undeniably shrank. And given that his slugging percentage increased despite a precipitous drop in ISO, his newfound success against like-handed pitching now appears predicated on his ability to hit for singles. But given the lack of a fundamental change in approach, aside from a short stretch this season, or accompanying improvement in the quality of his contact, there’s no reason to believe Realmuto has actually become a better contact hitter.

More alarmingly, his speed score dropped from 5.8 in 2015 to just 3.7 in 2016, falling from first among catchers with 300 or more plate appearances to sixth in just one season. Realmuto ranked 8^th in the league in infield hit percentage despite a speed score that ranked 87^th out of 146 qualified batters.

If you couldn’t tell, I’m bearish on Realmuto for 2017. While he exceeded expectations this year, he did so almost entirely on the back of an unsustainable spike in BABIP. Yes, he stole more bases and in fact, improved his efficiency while doing so. But Realmulto’s speed score also fell making an already dubious reliance on a catcher for steals an even more precarious proposition next season. Going back to 1990, there have been 13 other seasons in which a catcher stole as many bags as J.T. Realmulto did this year. The next season, those same catchers saw their stolen bases fall by 31% on average. It’s not a perfect analogy but it shows the inherent volatility of relying on catchers for speed.

Moreover, aside from a three-month stretch during which he increased his selectivity, there doesn’t appear to be any significant change in approach at the plate nor a demonstrable improvement in his batted ball data. I think it’s obvious that without a fundamental improvement, there’s some serious regression on the horizon for Realmuto. My suggestion is to thank the Fantasy Gods for a highly productive season and cut bait with this Marlin.