Reviewing 2014 Pod’s Picks: Catcher

I made a lot of predictions this year, all of which were enjoyable to make. But they were all shared for the same reason — to point out players I believe to be undervalued or overvalued. Aside from the assortment of bold predictions, I also annually compare my personal rankings to the rest of the RotoGraphs ranking crew and dub the series Pod’s Picks. So let’s see if my rankings proved more accurate for the players we differed on most. We’ll start with the catchers, of which you could check out the original picks here. Actual ranks are taken from the soon-to-be published dollar values by Zach Sanders.

Bullish

Geovany Soto

My Preseason Rank: 21 | Preseason Consensus: 33 | Actual Rank: 57

It’s always nice to start these lists off with a player marred by injury. Only about three weeks after posting my picks, Soto was diagnosed with a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee and didn’t return to the Rangers until mid-July. He then promptly returned to the DL with a groin strain and was soon after traded to the Athletics. He accumulated all of 38 plate appearances with the Rangers, and being in such an excellent hitter’s park was one of the primary reasons I liked him this year.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

My Preseason Rank: 17 | Preseason Consensus: 26 | Actual Rank: 25

I shared my surprise in my original writeup that I was so much more bullish on Salty, as I didn’t think my projection was particularly optimistic. I did expect his batting average to regress as it did, but I thought his home run power would rebound somewhat, even playing in such a home run suppressing home park.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Derek Norris

My Preseason Rank: 26 | Preseason Consensus: 32 | Actual Rank: 11

Norris’ ranking would have been even better had he not crashed in the second half. But his first half was solid enough that his overall line was still pretty good, albeit with no standout performance in any category. My bullish ranking likely related to a difference in playing time estimates, since I knew that he would be the regular catcher with John Jaso manning designated hitter. He has shown excellent power in the minors, but for some reason, that hasn’t manifested itself in the Majors. His average batted ball distance ranked a mere 268th out of 291 batters. He doesn’t swing and miss often and is always willing to take a walk, so if the power ever returns, a true breakout could be in his future.

Closer Ranking: Me

Bearish

Josmil Pinto

My Preseason Rank: 31 | Preseason Consensus: 18 | Actual Rank: 35

I wasn’t pessimistic about Pinto’s offense, I was pessimistic about his playing time. While many hyped him as a sleeper, I wondered where he was going to get the at-bats with Kurt Suzuki set to be the regular catcher. While he opened the season in the Majors, primarily filling the DH role, he batted just .222. The .326 wOBA wasn’t as ugly, but the Twins demoted him anyway, before recalling him in September. He ended up receiving just 197 plate appearances, which didn’t surprise me in the least. He needs to cut down on his strikeout rate, but I like his offensive upside.

Closer Ranking: Me

Welington Castillo

My Preseason Rank: 24 | Preseason Consensus: 16 | Actual Rank: 28

I thought I kinda liked Castillo as a nice, cheap option in two-catcher mixed leagues, but clearly I liked him less than others. Perhaps my playing time projection was less than others, but since he recorded just 417 plate appearances, it turned out to actually be too high. He enjoyed a bump in power as I expected, but his BABIP regression killed his batting average and the Cubs lineup didn’t help his runs scored and batted in totals.

Closer Ranking: Me

Salvador Perez

My Preseason Rank: 11 | Preseason Consensus: 6 | Actual Rank: 5

In my initial writeup, I talked about Perez’s batted ball distance suggesting an imminent power surge was unlikely, and that he’s really just a good batting average guy whose runs scored and batted in totals will be hurt by his placement in a mediocre at best lineup. So obviously his batting average tumbles, while his home run totals jumps to a career high. Of course, the increased homers was the direct result of an additional 80 at-bats, though a big jump in fly ball rate also helped. Perez suddenly battled a serious pop-up problem, as his IFFB% actually led all of baseball. With another uninspiring batted ball distance, he’ll have to prove that fly ball rate increase is sustainable. I’d bet against. And with it highly unlikely he records 600+ plate appearances again, he could disappoint next year.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Final Tally:
Me: 3
Consensus: 3