Returning from the Abyss: Heaney and Lyles

Andrew Heaney

The Andrew Heaney breakout is in full swing with him posting a 10.3 K/9 and a 3.35 ERA. It was tough to find any support for a Heaney breakout going into this season with his injury history and subpar 2017 production.

Heaney’s health has been the number one concern since having Tommy John surgery early in 2016.

Owners should have expected some struggles when he returned (and he did with a 7.06 ERA with a 5.0 HR/9). With limited 2018 expectations (405 NFBC ADP) from his prospect pedigree (a top-50 prospect before getting hurt), hopes were dashed when he started the season on the DL with an inflamed elbow. It was a broken record.

At this point, his value could not have been lower.

And now everything is awesome. I’ll start with his pitches (Travis Sawchik’s take from late last week) by going back to his last prospect reports.

They placed him with above-average velocity and control and therefore projecting him as an above average pitcher. The pitch tracking devices never had him throwing a slider but instead, the breaking pitch got labeled as a curve. Knowing the difference, here are his results since coming back from Tommy John surgery.

First, his pre and post-injury velo being similar which is always a good point to start from. His fastball, which got labeled as a sinker when he debuted, but it doesn’t really sink.

It averages 2470 RPMs which is above average for a 92-mph fastball. With the extra spin keeping the pitch from sinking, it’s generating an above average amount of swings-and-misses and just a 32% GB% which is great for lazy flyballs. While his curve doesn’t generate groundballs, it’s 18% SwStr% is elite. Finally, his change gets both groundballs and misses.

His pitches are all above average and they were last season and I should have noticed. Using my pERA metric, I had him with a 3.67 pERA last year. His pERA was similar to the values of Madison Bumgarner (3.63), Yu Darvish (3.67), and Aaron Nola (3.70). Two other breakouts, Tyler Skaggs (3.71) and Marco Gonzales (3.71), fall just after Heaney. I should have believed in my own metric when finding starting pitcher targets. I will not fail in this way next offseason.

Finally, his control was an issue last season with a 3.7 BB/9. This high value should not be a surprise since other Tommy John surgery recipients had the same issue. His current 3.1 BB/9 is more in line with his pre-injury production.

The other big cloud handing over Heaney is his 2016 3.0 HR/9 in 6 IP and 2017 5.0 HR/9 in 21 IP. Almost all the runs allowed in 2017 (14 of 17) came from the home runs which allowed him to post a 99% LOB%. He was lucky and unlucky at the same time. His 0.9 HR/9 is reasonable but I’d not be surprised to see it jump into the 1.3 range as the weather heats up.

Overall, I’m buying Heaney when possible. Even though injuries are a major concern surrounding him, he should be able to maintain his current production. A little health is all he needed.

Jordan Lyles

Even though Lyles was a first round pick in 2008 and made a few top 100 lists, he was never really considered a top talent. He struggled for years with the Astros and Rockies. Last season, he was released by the Rockies and the Padres decided to take a chance on him. His improvement has been dramatic with just a simple pitch mix change. He dropped his sinker and slider usage.

First, here’s a look at the swinging strike rates on his five pitches over the past two seasons.

In all fairness, deciding between the sinker and four-seamer wasn’t clear-cut. They key is that he moved his overall fastball usage down from 56% to 45%. By dropping his below average slider usage, he’s throwing the combination of the curve and change around 47% of the time. Simply, he’s throwing his swing-and-miss pitches more. There will be a point when diminishing returns on not throwing his fastball but he’s not there yet.

One area of his game screams regression and it’s his .227 BABIP. The factor adding complexity to this situation is that two of his pitches allow for weak contact so it’ll be tough to know when his BABIP stabilizes. His fastball has a 21% popup rate. His curveball is at 63% GB%. While the other three pitches aren’t on the extreme spectrum, these two weak contact generating pitches make up over 50% of his repertoire.

The 27-year-old righty re-invented himself and he needs a new projection. Using his 2018 stats and estimators as a baseline, I think an 8.5 K/9, 1.20 WHIP, and 3.75 ERA are reasonable projections going forward. They’re similar to Luke Weaver’s line making him usable in all leagues unless he’s facing a tough matchup.