April ERA-xFIP Splits

Which starting pitchers with shiny April ERAs pitched over their heads, and which guys with macabre surface stats got some bad bounces? To find out, let’s look at the starters with the biggest difference between ERA and expected FIP (xFIP) during the first month of the 2010 season (minimum 20 innings pitched).

First, the 10 starters whose peripherals suggest that their microscopic ERAs will climb:

Note the extremely low homer and BABIP figures, as well as the sky high strand rates. With the exception of Livan and Talbot, these guys have actually pitched pretty well thus far. It’s just that they won’t continue to compile Bob Gibson circa 1968 ERAs.

St. Louis’ Garcia, owned in just 43 percent of Yahoo leagues, is burning worms and has a history of whiffing hitters in the minors. Health and stamina remain issues for the Tommy John survivor, but he’s legit. Liriano has started off strong as well. Pelfrey (whose one relief outing isn’t included here) has pitched decently, but it’s hard to say that he has “broken out.”

Now, here are the 10 starters with ERAs far higher than their peripheral stats would suggest:

Pretty much the opposite of the previous list: very high home run and BABIP numbers, and low strand rates. Porcello’s start really hasn’t been that bad, as his strikeout and walk rates have both improved compared to his rookie season, and he has maintained his strong groundball rate to boot. It’s pretty hard to notice, though, when hits are falling in 41.5 percent of the time that balls are put in play.

Harang, Beckett, Floyd and Jackson are also good targets. They haven’t been great, but perhaps you can acquire them on the cheap from a fed up owner. Here are their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Harang: 4.12 FIP
Beckett: 3.37 FIP
Floyd: 4.54 FIP
Jackson: 4.25 FIP