April ERA-xFIP Splits
Which starting pitchers with shiny April ERAs pitched over their heads, and which guys with macabre surface stats got some bad bounces? To find out, let’s look at the starters with the biggest difference between ERA and expected FIP (xFIP) during the first month of the 2010 season (minimum 20 innings pitched).
First, the 10 starters whose peripherals suggest that their microscopic ERAs will climb:
Note the extremely low homer and BABIP figures, as well as the sky high strand rates. With the exception of Livan and Talbot, these guys have actually pitched pretty well thus far. It’s just that they won’t continue to compile Bob Gibson circa 1968 ERAs.
St. Louis’ Garcia, owned in just 43 percent of Yahoo leagues, is burning worms and has a history of whiffing hitters in the minors. Health and stamina remain issues for the Tommy John survivor, but he’s legit. Liriano has started off strong as well. Pelfrey (whose one relief outing isn’t included here) has pitched decently, but it’s hard to say that he has “broken out.”
Now, here are the 10 starters with ERAs far higher than their peripheral stats would suggest:
Pretty much the opposite of the previous list: very high home run and BABIP numbers, and low strand rates. Porcello’s start really hasn’t been that bad, as his strikeout and walk rates have both improved compared to his rookie season, and he has maintained his strong groundball rate to boot. It’s pretty hard to notice, though, when hits are falling in 41.5 percent of the time that balls are put in play.
Harang, Beckett, Floyd and Jackson are also good targets. They haven’t been great, but perhaps you can acquire them on the cheap from a fed up owner. Here are their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:
Harang: 4.12 FIP
Beckett: 3.37 FIP
Floyd: 4.54 FIP
Jackson: 4.25 FIP
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
What was your inning limit? Charlie Morton looks like a candidate for the second list. In 19.1 innings Morton has an ERA of 12.57 compared to an xFIP of 3.98. He certainly seems to lower that ERA as the season progresses.
mattjg,
I used a 20 IP cutoff-sorry I forgot to mention that. Morton is another guy to keep an eye on-3.98 xFIP, 1,3567 ERA (OK, that’s an exaggeration, but he’s at 12.57).
Seems like Javier Vazquez just missed the IP limit to drop out of the listing as his ERA-xFIP is 4.07 but do you consider him a good bounce back candidate? I traded Cantu and Lidge for Vazquez and thought I made out quite well but his performances have been troubling, he seems to have lost his control.
Vazquez’s 2+MPH dip in velocity and 35% groundball rate are disconcerting, but I think he still could produce a low-four’s FIP if he’s healthy and his control bounces back
I seem to recall hearing noise that Yankee Stadium’s radar gun has been playing slow, but I never saw the data. It might explain the dip in velocity.
Doesn’t Pitch F/X not use the stadium gun?
Carlos Zambrano would have made the list if he was still a starter, as he had a 12K/9.
For some stupid reason, I always own Aaron Harang on at least one fantasy team. He’s the poster boy for never living up to your xFIP. Yes, he can strike guys out but it doesn’t matter when he gets crushed every other start and gives up home runs like there’s no tomorrow. Some guys just will not be able to normalize their home run rate.
In his first four full years with the Reds Harang has had HR/FB rates of 13.3, 8.8, 10.5, and 10.2. Since becoming a bad fantasy asset, he has had HR/FB rates of 13.9 and 11.7. This April, it’s 20. So certainly, it’s going to come down from that. His HR rate looks pretty normal even in his bad years though.
The problem seems to lie in his K rate and GB rate. He’s walking just a couple more and striking out a lot less while getting a lot less GBs. So far, his GB/FB rate is actually way up (1.27), and if he can keep that above 1 while normalizing his HR/FB % and LOB %, he definitely looks like a useful 3 or 4 starter depending on the depth of the league. A low 4 ERA with 130 or so Ks.
Not that I think anyone should own Doug Davis but I’ve watched all of his starts and it has been ridiculous how unlucky he has been. Seems like every ball hit against him is a weak grounder that finds a hole or a little looping single just over the IF. It is nice when empirical evidence matches up with the statistical evidence.
So what would you do with Ubaldo Jiminez here? Is he a sell high guy right now? He feels like this years Greinke to me, even if that means outperforming his peripherals, which I believe elite pitchers (and terrible ones) tend to do.
I think you’re better off keeping him for now. I still don’t think public perception has caught up to his talent level, and the Coors Field stigma doesn’t help matters. I think Jimenez is firmly planted in that second tier of pitchers (Halladay, Lincecum, Sabathia, Haren, Greinke, and Carpenter being the first tier) among the Verlander’s and Beckett’s of the world.
what are the chances we’re going to get an update of this article for june/july… that would be awesome!
I will have one up within in the day.