Prospect Stock Watch: Brinson, Marte, Nimmo, Starling
Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at three outfield prospects — including one who has already been impacted (indirectly) by the trade deadline, as well as an impressive infielder in Seattle.
Lewis Brinson, OF, Rangers: The big Cole Hamels traded netted the Phillies some impressive prospects including outfielder Nick Williams. He was a step ahead of Brinson, who was in A-ball, on the depth chart but I would have personally preferred the latter in a deal such as this. Brinson is a plus center-fielder with speed at 20+ home run potential. But, like Williams, he’s had contact issues in the past but they’ve improved in 2015. Two warnings: His gaudy numbers have come in a very strong hitting environment and his current BABIP is more than .400. With the move of Williams, it’s been reported that Brinson will move up to Double-A. With Leonys Martin’s contract up at the end of the year, it might behoove the club to hold onto him for one more year (through arbitration) and then hope Brinson, 21, is ready for The Show in 2017. [Value Up]
Ketel Marte, SS, Mariners: Marte caught my attention while playing in Low-A ball in 2013 and I ranked him as the 15th best prospect in the system at that time. Since then, he’s become a highly-touted prospect around baseball and is probably one of the Top 3-5 prospects in the system now. Playing at Triple-A in 2015 at just 21 years of age, Marte’s bat looks MLB ready even if his defence at shortstop needs a little more polish. He might end up making a nifty second baseman, capable of hitting in the two-hole in a big league lineup. Unfortunately, Robinson Cano is entrenched at the keystone for the Mariners so Marte will either have to improve his defence (and displace Brad Miller and Chris Taylor (both of whom have been disappointing in 2015) or look for a trade. [Value Up]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets: Despite being passed on the Mets’ outfield depth chart by 2014 first round pick Michael Conforto in terms of impact ceiling, Nimmo (the club’s first pick from 2011) recently passed his prospect-mate in terms of development by leaving him at Double-A while moving up to Triple-A. His promotion came at a bit of a curious time, though, considering his OPS is 100 points lower than his breakout 2014 season at Double-A (.820 vs .714).The real big concern with Nimmo, 2, is that he doesn’t really do anything really well: He doesn’t run much, he doesn’t hit for power and he hasn’t hit for average consistently. The biggest pluses to his game are that his raw potential remains and he gets on base at a decent clip. [Value steady]
Bubba Starling, OF, Royals: Like Nimmo, Starling is a 2011 first rounder that hasn’t developed quite as hoped. Things have started to click a little more for the Royals outfield prospect in 2015 and he’s produced solid numbers now that he’s reached Double-A in his fourth pro season. He’s still not consistently tapping into his raw power but he’s making much more contact and has seen his strikeout rate start to drop. The Royals really don’t have much outfield depth in the minors and Alex Rios isn’t going to patrol right field in K.C. for much longer. A year ago at this time I was tempted to right him off but he’s improved enough to project as an average big league regular — with hope that he’ll continue to work to realize his full potential. [Value Up]
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Loves these. Thanks Marc.
Should have ordered it Starling, Marte to cause some confusion.
But i agree, great job love reading these
“The real big concern with Nimmo, *2*, is that he doesn’t really do anything really well: He doesn’t run much, he doesn’t hit for power and he hasn’t hit for average consistently.”
His body is very projectable though, he should add ~180 pounds as he develops and his baserunning should improve by the time he reaches kindergarten.
“Brinson, Marte, Nimmo, Starling” sounds like the crew of the SS Enterprise. Probably it’s the Nimmo-Nimoy connection that does it.
Incidentally, I’d say that Nimmo’s stock is down. At age 22 in double A, you would expect better performance than this from an outfielder. “Potential” is worth quite a bit less at age 22 in double A than at age 21 in double A.
So Bubba is no longer Wily Mo Pena profile, has he sacrificed his slugging for some more contact (even if it’s weak)?
Btw small typo, “right him off” did you mean “write him off”?
Starling was never the Wily Mo profile, since Wily Mo was never a plus defender in CF.
Wily Mo also had elite raw power in the minors, and was just really messed up when he was forced onto a mlb roster really young (i think he was like a 23 year old rule 5 pick up)
It is time for you to buy into Nick Williams. Not only was Williams a step ahead on the organizational ladder, but he has already made some significant adjustments which Brinson stands little chance of making.
What’s been disappointing about brad miller? He’s on pace to put up about +3war. No way thats disappointing by any reasonable definition.
Ketel Marte is being played in CF, right?
Austin Jackson could still be moved on from, giving him a spot.
Seattle tried Marte out in CF at Tacoma. There are some in the org who think he could excel there. Now he is playing 2B in Seattle until Cano is back from his injury.
Marc, Conforto was promoted to the big leagues before Nimmo was promoted to AAA. Conforto was just sent back down to AAA. I don’t think it’s accurate to say that Nimmo “recently passed his prospect-mate [Conforto] in terms of development by leaving him at Double-A while moving up to Triple-A.”