The Daily Grind: More Deadline Deals, Salazar, Nola

Agenda

1. More More Trade Talk
2. Daily DFS – Salazar
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nola et al., Brooks, Jaso, Eaton
5. Factor Grid

1. More More Trade Talk

There promises to be one more day of trade fall out. Let’s discuss the notable transactions from yesterday.

The Pirates acquired Joakim Soria. He was one of the worst closers in baseball. Now he’s a seventh inning guy. You can safely remove him from your rosters.

Alex Wilson received the first crack at a save in Detroit, and he converted it. I know little about Wilson except that he’s a command type whose numbers look ill suited to closing. Bruce Rondon has the heater of a closer, but his 8.25 ERA (2.66 FIP) will probably keep him out of the ninth inning. Al Albuerquerque is another fringy option. They all have warts.

The Giants traded for Reds starter Mike Leake. There will now be more opportunities to use him as a spot starter.

The big swap sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to Houston in exchange for Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Adrian Houser, and Josh Hader. This is a much stronger return than the one offered by the Mets.

Phillips is a dynamic prospect with a star ceiling. While he’s not a household name, he’s a fantastic fit for Miller Park with 40 HR+SB potential. He’s an unlikely candidate for a September call up, but I could see him pushing his way onto the roster around the middle of next summer.

The most recognizable name is Domingo Santana. I assume he’ll get a shot at the major league roster. Santana has ripped through the minors, but the majors have proved vexing in two brief attempts. The 22-year-old probably needs to make some adjustments in the minors if he wants to avoid a Quad-A label. There’s a star ceiling in there if he does.

Houser used to be a top prospect for Houston, but now he’s just another arm. Hader is slightly more useful. The Astros acquired him in the Bud Norris trade. He looks like a sure fire LOOGY if he doesn’t work out of the rotation.

The move to Houston is great for Gomez. He’ll probably bat somewhere between second and fourth, surrounded by Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer (when healthy). That’s a strong unit with Chris Carter and Evan Gattis in the background to mop up. Preston Tucker and Jake Marisnick are the eventual losers in the swap. As for Fiers, the move to Minute Maid Park shouldn’t affect his value too greatly.

2. Daily DFS – Salazar

Yesterday’s Grind

Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his Wednesday start. He now heads the options tonight opposite Hector Santiago and the Angels. Mike Trout is still expected to be out. Personally, I’d like to see clubs be more liberal with the disabled list for these types of nagging injuries. If he going to ultimately miss 12 days, then why give him the option of rushing back prematurely?

I digress. Kershaw is painfully expensive, and now we know he might be banged up too. Madison Bumgarner is $1,900 less expensive on FanDuel, but he’s still incredibly pricey. Johnny Cueto is opposed by the Toronto juggernaut. Matt Harvey has the Nationals. Both studs might not be worth the price of admission.

Danny Salazar is a high variance pick against the limp-bat Athletics. He’s capable of posting anything from six to 20 FanDuel points. Salazar contributes excellent swing-and-miss stuff and solid control. When he runs into trouble, it’s usually via the long ball.

If you go simply by his performance to date, Eduardo Rodriguez could single-handedly make or ruin your night. The Rays are actually one of the best teams against left-handed pitching. It should be an interesting game.

Stack Targets: Buck Farmer, Williams Perez, David Buchanan, Jeff Locke, Michael Lorenzen, Nick Martinez, Nate Eovaldi, Rubby de la Rosa, Kyle Kendrick

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Just 16 dudes today.

Billy Butler and Brett Lawrie v Danny Salazar
Howie Kendrick v Hector Santiago
Christian Yelich v Ian Kennedy
Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Phillips v Jeff Locke
Salvador Perez and Jarrod Dyson v Drew Hutchison
Buster Posey v Nick Martinez
Mike Zunino and Austin Jackson v Tommy Milone
J.D. Martinez v Wei-Yin Chen

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nola et al., Brooks, Jaso, Eaton

Pitchers to Start: This is a good group of stream starters. All are worthy of rostering outright in 12-team mixed leagues. Let’s briefly discuss them all.

Aaron Nola and Joe Ross are the highest ceiling options over the rest of the season. Nola is opposed by the Braves tomorrow. He’s pitched well through two starts, although he’s allowed three home runs. Ross is less likely to win against Jacob deGrom and the Mets. However, he has better strikeout stuff. He may eventually lose his spot in the rotation when Stephen Strasburg returns.

I picked up Kyle Hendricks about a month ago in a K/BB league. He’s excellent in that particular category. A start against the Gomez-less (and probably Parra-less) Brewers seems fine. I view him as a right-handed Jose Quintana.

Kyle Gibson is in the midst of a breakout season. His slider and change have improved to the point that they can be used to rack up strikeouts. The Twins seem to finally be coaching their players to buff their strikeout rates. His 6.39 K/9 is a bit misleading – expect closer to 7.50 K/9 over the remainder of the season.

Jeremy Hellickson made an adjustment earlier in the season and has pitched well since that point. His strikeout rate has improved to around 8.50 K/9 and his walk rate is below 2.00 B/9. The overall product is still very risky against the Astros. I’m not eager to use this particular matchup.

Also consider: Aaron Nola, Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Gibson, Jeremy Hellickson, Joe Ross

Pitchers to Exploit: The Athletics acquired Aaron Brooks as part of the Ben Zobrist trade with the Royals. They’re going to immediately throw him into the big league fire. Brooks is a command and control guy with decent velocity (91 mph). I don’t know enough about his offspeed stuff to speak with authority, but 91 mph is usually enough to succeed with a no-walks approach. At Triple-A, he posted a 3.71 ERA with 7.76 K/9 and 1.77 BB/9. That’s the worst walk rate of his minor league career. He might be very similar to Hendricks, but let’s not jump to using him just yet.

Also consider: Yordano Ventura, Matt Moore, Joe Kelly, John Danks, Matt Garza, Mike Montgomery, Raisel Iglesias, Odrisamer Despaigne

Hitters (power): When Joe Kelly was demoted to the minors, the hope was that he could get back on track. He pitched well at Triple-A, but his first two starts since recall have been ugly. He’s allowed nine runs (eight earned) in 8.2 innings. The Astros launched three homers against him. The game is at Fenway Park, a stadium that kills lefty power. Still, you can hope for extra base hits from John Jaso and James Loney.

Also consider: Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Jed Lowrie, Pedro Alvarez, Scooter Gennett, Chris Coghlan, Chris Young, John Jaso, James Loney, Mike Napoli, Rusney Castillo

Hitters (speed): Adam Eaton is up to 46 percent owned on Yahoo. He’s opposed by the dread hurler TBA. After an ugly start to the season, Eaton has played like a top 25 hitter. Since May 11 (an arbitrary date that happens to coincide with a four hit performance), he’s hit .290/.369/.473 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, seven triples, and seven stolen bases.

Also consider: Delino DeShields, Ichiro Suzuki, Anthony Gose, Adam Eaton, Tyler Saladino

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The only storm risk happens to have a roof. Atmospheric conditions are uniformly excellent for home runs. Expect a big night.

The Link.

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