Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10/30/2018

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a bit. Until then, a little self-promotion.

Brad Johnson: I’m doing custom fantasy games for my patrons this offseason. Future contests will have a prize of $50. This month’s contest is a simple Qualifying Offer Game with a $10 prize. There’s currently only a few entrees so a new $1/mo patron has a really decent chance to come out ahead.

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22372546

Brad Johnson: I also announced the first patron fantasy league, a 20 team dynasty that will begin slow drafting in December. Details are still up for discussion.

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22247095

Brad Johnson: On a completely different note, I began a free agent analysis series with a look at catchers.

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22378688

Reardon: Appreciate the FA analysis series! When it comes to fantasy, how do you see catchers shaking out? Realmuto….and then?

Brad Johnson: As of now, I think I’m still tossing the dice on big home run totals from Gary Sanchez. I’ll also try for a rebound Contreras. Maybe a cheap Posey if he’s falling to a dollar. In general, I’m looking to go budget with guys like Ramos, Perez, Zunino, Narvaez, Cervelli, Chirinos, Suzuki, and Yadi.

Brad Johnson: Maybe people overreact to Grandal’s postseason, but I doubt it

Reardon: For fantasy, how do you see the younger catchers doing for 2019? Mejia, Barnes, Jansen have all shown flashes, Alfaro got a ton of time, Kiner-Falefa’s still C eligible?

Brad Johnson: Barnes is deceptively not young

Brad Johnson: fwiw

Brad Johnson: Jansen and Mejia both have some pretty serious upside, but they’ll probably cost more than a bunch of a boring veterans who are likely to outperform them

kevinthecomic: Where are we expecting lack of positional depth in 2019?  C seems obvious, but 3B, 2B and SS seem DEEP, especially compared to 5 years ago.

Brad Johnson: 1B is the only position with any kind of scarcity – besides the black hole of C and aces

Brad Johnson: closers could be a deeply weird position again

Brad Johnson: There’s no predicting how the reliever market will work out

Brad Johnson: Aroldis Chapman lost his job…

joe: in an nl only, i have talion ($20) and flaherty ($21) as keepers.  Are those guys good enough to top my rotation or is it worth it to still get a scherzer who may cost $40?

Brad Johnson: I think for NL only those are reasonable “aces”

Brad Johnson: I also don’t think it’s a terrible idea to add Scherzer too. Assuming you can swallow spending $81 on your top 3 pitchers. Doing this kind of depends on an obvious path to dominating the pitching categories. If other rivals are already in a better position to win those categories, you may want to choose a different path to victory.

Slurve: Are you generally a ceiling (Higher risk/reward) or floor (safe/consistent) guy in drafting prospects?  how about veterans?   any personal trends?

Brad Johnson: It’s all very context dependent. I want a diversified portfolio in general, although I’ll also consider what I need.

Brad Johnson: If we’re mid-draft and my roster is in some trouble, I’ll start going high variance in the hopes of catching some good fortune. If I’m crushing, then I might go boring in a spot or three.

Brad Johnson: In any kind of trading league, it’s important to remember that it’s very hard to trade boring for fair value. And it’s very easy to talk someone into an overpay for anything shiny

Brad Johnson: So I do make a point of getting some shiny stuff

Trent: Who are your top 3-5 catchers for next year?

Brad Johnson: Realmuto, Sanchez, uh

Brad Johnson: Honestly, Ramos might be third depending on team/role

Brad Johnson: Contreras is in the mix for third too

Brad Johnson: then it gets a little sloppy into the Grandal, Molina, Suzuki, Perez, and maybe Jansen group

Brad Johnson: I’m probably missing somebody, I hope I am

Brad Johnson: oh, right, we have to see what’s what with Posey

Ken: Are you de-valuing Dodgers’ players slightly at all for 2019?  Their depth and platoon proclivities make it hard to expect a full season of ABs from most of them.

Brad Johnson: de-valuing isn’t how I’d describe it

Brad Johnson: Yes, I expect more off days which can be a pain in the ass if you don’t have a lot of bench to work with

Brad Johnson: But I also expect those players to be better per PA than they otherwise would be

Brad Johnson: It’s more of an issue with their starting pitchers imo

Jeff: Do you see any top-flight SP getting moved this offseason? Paxton, Greinke, Carlos Martinez all have had a least a little noise around them

Brad Johnson: I don’t really expect the Mariners to throw in the towel

Brad Johnson: Too many of their players are still good but basically untradeable

Brad Johnson: they’re pot committed

Brad Johnson: to borrow a poker term

Brad Johnson: I also doubt the Diamondbacks sell off, although they’ll be more serious about exploring the options

Brad Johnson: And may deal Greinke even if they’re aiming to contend

Ken: Jose Suarez, Griffin Canning, Jesus Luzardo–are any of these names enticing, given the rotation openings in LAA and OAK?

Brad Johnson: They’re names to file away for later.

Brad Johnson: With the way young pitchers are usually used these days, I see no reason to go out of my way to roster them early in most formats

Brad Johnson: For every emergent SP who provides fantasy value, half a dozen bust hard

Brad Johnson: even if they show flashes of upside

Minty: Buehler or Snell over the next 3 years? They’d be my final keeper in a shallow QS league

Brad Johnson: Buehler is my pick. I think I may be in the minority

Brad Johnson: I’m turning out to be a Snell doubter even though I like him

Brad Johnson: The issue is the division as much as any regression expectations

Matt: Would you rather roll with a $10 Andrus, or $6 Mondessi at SS next year?

Brad Johnson: I like the idea of a $16 Andressi if you can keep both

Brad Johnson: Have your floor and eat your ceiling too

Brad Johnson: As of today, I’d probably lean going upside with Mondesi

Brad Johnson: if I’m only picking one

Brad Johnson: That’s not locked in

Matt: Dynasty roto league (QS, K, ERA, WHIP, SV). Nola is at the top of my rotation, then nothing. I’m not likely to be able to put anything significant at the top of my rotation, but I took end of season fliers on Davies, Gohara, D Rodriguez, and will have cheap toptions on Gibson and Fiers. Do you think that group can combine for my 3-5, if I can try to get *something* semi significant in the #2 spot?

Brad Johnson: I regularly contend in dynasty leagues with slop pitching. Guys like Derek Holland, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Minor, and Gibson are regularly free. It’s just a matter of finding them. Boring veteran rebounds are likely to continue next season as more and more pitchers decide to pay attention to which of their pitches actually perform well

Brad Johnson: In most of these rebound cases, we’re just seeing guys ditch terrible pitches they’ve irrationally clung to throwing for years

Jeff: Do you draft injury stashes in keeper/dynasty leagues? I got hooked after getting a $3 Darvish a few years back, but this year had a Jimmy Nelson filling a DL slot that could’ve seen better use all year. Any good ones you’re hoping to grab late in the draft/auction this spring?

Brad Johnson: Posey springs immediately to mind. Winker. Kopech. I’m sure there are some others

Brad Johnson: I haven’t climbed into that pool yet

Brad Johnson: I do like the strategy in keeper/dynasty formats. Less keen in season long, especially in this everybody-to-the-DL meta

joe: how high you willing to spend on acuna or soto in an NL only auctions?

Brad Johnson: too soon too soon

Brad Johnson: too young too young

Brad Johnson: too soon too soon

Brad Johnson: (I have no idea)

Jeff: Predictions for Andrew Miller’s role next year?

Brad Johnson: Setup reliever

Chuck: Looking at the list of 2017 TJ surgeries for hidden gems, Michael Pineda’s name jumped out to me. Worth a late-round flier?

Brad Johnson: Sure. I’ve always thought he was an elite reliever with no hope to start fwiw

Thomas: Re: Dodgers: How about in a league with a weekly lineup lock?  Hard to take advantage of the per/PA value if they’re only playing 4 games per week and you can’t make daily substitutions.

Brad Johnson: True, especially if it’s a shallow league. It’s not a such a big deal in deeper formats where 4 good games can outclass 6 bad ones

joe: Is $24 too high to keep Baez and $40 too high to keep Blackmon?

Brad Johnson: Need more context. Assuming 12 team mixed, no and yes

Brad Johnson: $260-ish budget part of the assumption

Matt: Nimmo going to be closer to his hot streaks next year, or his cold streaks? Is he a legit .360+ OBP guy who can hit 25 HRs? You taking him over Bader?

Brad Johnson: As a hitter, I prefer Nimmo to Bader

Brad Johnson: I’ll buy the season line more or less

Jackie: Has saber-metrics or writing about baseball made you less of a fan?  Why or why not?

Brad Johnson: No. I’m far more invested in the MLB product than I used to be when I was solely a player

Brad Johnson: I used to barely watch baseball back when I played 7 days a week

Brad Johnson: Sabermetrics in particular really spoke to me. I discovered them around 2007. I was always an OBP guy growing up, and I had come up with my own (shitty) version of WAR without knowing it

Brad Johnson: Which was most memorably used to compare Pat Burrell to Carlos Lee and determine that Lee was not enough of an upgrade to invest.

AKA22: Joey Gallo started slow but was amazing in the second half, but I feel like perception is he had a disappointing season. Are you buying him next year? Think he can sustain his second half or will we see another season with totals similar to the last two?

Brad Johnson: The narrative on Gallo is his ability to adjust. I’m bullish. At the very least, you can bank a billion HR

Brad Johnson: since the Rangers are rebuilding, they should be plenty patient with his low AVG

AKA22: Nick Ahmed worth anything next year in NL only? Had him as a $1 NL Only SS, and an tempted to keep him, but he’s so boring and was so bad before last year’s power surge

Brad Johnson: Definitely keep him. There’s a chance the power surge is smoke and mirrors, but it’s worth taking a $1 flier

Reardon: This is jumping off from something that was in Meg’s chat earlier: Who do you think has the best career out of players Dombrowski has traded from BOS? Moncada, Kopech, Travis Shaw, Margot, Anderson Espinoza?

Brad Johnson: Kopech if he can find health, Moncada otherwise

Brad Johnson: Shaw may shine brightest if Kopech never fully recovers, but his career will be too short to outdo Moncada.

Ryan: One of my leagues last year had me trying to find playing time for 3 out of 5 of Hicks, Pham, Benintendi, Bellinger, and Haniger on a day-to-day basis.  Which three of that group do you like most for 2019?

Brad Johnson: Oh

Brad Johnson: Benintendi and the Same Asset Class

Brad Johnson: Personally, Hicks and Pham

Brad Johnson: I’m sucker for speed/power blends

Brad Johnson: even if the speed is modest

Brad Johnson: I kinda love all of these guys

DJ Tanner: So in the 18 inning marathon, Eovaldi pitched a QO (6 IP, 1 ER in extras). Can’t wait to make that a fantasy stat.

Brad Johnson: This is referencing my article from earlier today. Not everybody is on board…

Luke: Please give me three rookie or sleeper names that have huge upside but aren’t household names right now.

Brad Johnson: I’m not ready to go super deep with this yet. Roman Quinn, Tony Kemp, Ramon Laureano are in-majors guys who will be shooting up draft boards under certain conditions

Brad Johnson: Kemp could be pushed into a reserve role again, although that is a great misjustice

Matt: With Kershaw priced out as one of my keepers and my pts league team in general needing a bit of a mini rebuild, I want to target a high-upside pitcher who will also contribute at some point in 2019 early in my draft. Is it Whitley or bust? Any other prospects on the radar who can give ace upside but has a chance to contribute next season?

Brad Johnson: As with Luke’s question, I don’t have a full grasp on the young pitcher scene. That’s the last place I worry about because it’s so volatile. Mike Soroka could be a rebound target. Brent Honeywell will be back at some point. I assume Alex Reyes will be kept. Casey Mize could move fast. Kyle Wright too?

Brad Johnson: I’m sure I’m missing a LOT of targets

kevinthecomic: what lineup strategies work the best in H2H leagues: lefty/righty matchups, sitting hitters vs. elite pitchers, sitting pitchers vs. elite hitting lineups, something else?

Brad Johnson: I don’t use one set of tactics personally

Brad Johnson: it’s just a matter of judging the best course based on your matchup, current accrued stats, and personnel

Brad Johnson: Which is both very simple and quite complicated

Brad Johnson: There are too many moving parts to suggest one size fits all approach

Brad Johnson: I do find it easiest to load up on aces and dominate pitching stats. Then just work on incrementally upgrading hitters until you have a few steady categories. Usually sacrificing HR/RBI for R/SB/AVG

Brad Johnson: But not always

DJ Tanner: Actually hadn’t noticed the article, more finding good examples of when I threw out the QO idea and you promised me 10% of the millions you’ll make. Glad it’s coming to fruition, great work!

Brad Johnson: I told you I’d forget

Brad Johnson: I legit forgot

Ham: Hey Brad! League set-up question for you — I’m trying to introduce a keeper system into my 12-tm league that always drafts via snake drafts. What’s the best noob-friendly keeper setup for us? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: The simplest is keep X at no cost where X equals whatever number you choose

Brad Johnson: You can add a slight complication by attaching a cost, say draft round minus two. That’s pretty common.

Brad Johnson: Alternatively, you can limit the number of seasons a player may be kept, although that requires some manual tracking on most sites

Brad Johnson: You would add a cost or contract length if you’re concerned about one owner loading up on Trout, Ramirez, Betts, and Turner while another maybe only has Nola, Tatis, Haniger, and Soto. That’s obviously pretty unfair if the former team isn’t losing their first four picks compared to maybe picks four, eight, 23, and 24 for the latter

Ryan: Any thoughts on Crawford or Kingery going forward in Philadelphia?  Might one of them be traded, if the Phils land Machado?

Brad Johnson: I doubt they’d be traded unless some sort of blockbuster deal is found

Brad Johnson: As of now, I don’t see an obvious fit anywhere. Greinke is the only major rumored target that might appeal to Philly, and that wouldn’t require a JPC or Kingery type player

Brad Johnson: I think they’ll just be patient

Brad Johnson: Machado obviously isn’t a shortstop on a club with JPC.

Brad Johnson: I’m also buying into the narrative that they’re moving on from Machado

Brad Johnson: The Philly market/fan base is not the right match for him

Brad Johnson: Most northeast teams are the wrong fit tbh

Brad Johnson: I guess I hadn’t noticed that since I’ve been blacked out of Orioles games for basically his entire career

DJ Tanner: Finally joined an Ottoneu team, and taking over a last place team. I’m assuming the following guys are too expensive to keep (12 team FG points):  Kris Bryant $57, Posey $33, Jose Abreu $31, McCutheon $25, Cano $22, Bumgarner $41, Keuchel $28 … any worth it?

Brad Johnson: No. Although you can opt to keep one or two if there isn’t much left on the balance sheet after them

Brad Johnson: Then just trade them and a big loan for good keepers. And focus your draft resources on getting good keepers

Brad Johnson: Ironically, the easiest path to getting good keepers is rostering a lot of $1 players. But you also want to use all $400 less a few bucks of spending cash

Brad Johnson: So in short, you need lots of cheapies and then plenty of good expensive players you can sell for more cheapies

Brad Johnson: That’s ottoneu rebuilding 101

Matt: Speaking of JPC….is he ever going to hit?

Brad Johnson: I think so

Brad Johnson: Perhaps not in a super exciting way, and it might take awhile like Arcia

Felipe: We’ve got a 8×8 H2H keeper league (borderline dynasty w/ 10 keepers). I don’t have a second baseman right now as I traded Treinen for Merrifield straight up this year. Who do you like better to fill that spot: Kingery or Goodrum?

Brad Johnson: Goodrum short term

Brad Johnson: Kingery should continue to fill a super utility role

Brad Johnson: He may even find his way back to Triple-A for some much-needed seasoning

Matt: Is JP Crawford really considered a valuable piece these days? Is it just post-hype sleeper value? He has uh, not had very strong results in his career.

Brad Johnson: Definitely in the real world. He has high end plate discipline and good contact rates

Brad Johnson: My take is that he tries to do too much and could improve simply by aging into more strength and not trying to overdo it

Vic: Will Benentendi be 2019s Yelich?

Brad Johnson: I doubt it

Brad Johnson: He’s a good example of what I see as possible for JPC btw

Brad Johnson: He doesn’t try to make anything extra happen. Just works counts and puts the barrel on the ball. He’ll age into a little more power eventually.

Matt: I’m torn on Andujar. I’m a Yanks fan, and he has been one of my favorite prospects for quite some time. I’m just concerned that the OBP might not be enough, and well…he might not be a 3B, or a Yankee. Sell high?

Brad Johnson: I’m selling in the 0 leagues I own him

Brad Johnson: I’m just not a big believer. Without a defensive position, there’s just way too much risk of getting nothing from him

Brad Johnson: Good Ryon Healy seems to be a rough approximation of the upside imo

Brad Johnson: I can’t imagine the Yankees will put up with a second full season of him

Brad Johnson: And Luke Voit is a better hitter for 1B

Brad Johnson: Which is weird but true

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up, I have some errands to run

Brad Johnson: You should join my Patreon contest. Entries are due by end of tonight for a chance at $10. (see beginning of the chat).

Brad Johnson: True, you have to be a patron, but that’s only $1/mo for a chance at $10 (and I currently have fewer than 5 entries)

Brad Johnson: ok, a few more

Felipe: Given the state of the catcher position, is Gary Sanchez worth keeping (10 keepers) over someone like Josh Hader (Holds is a category)?

Brad Johnson: Ehhh

Brad Johnson: In a deep format, probably. If it’s 12 team, 1 C or shallower, nah

Matt: Thoughts on Conforto? He showed flashes of being useful again last year. That power coming back as he gets further from surgery to reattach his arm?

Brad Johnson: Jump on that wagon

Reardon: On the topic of JPC: Mondesi came up really young, and is finally doing exciting things. Urias is in a little bit of the same boat. Do you see any other post-post-hype sleepers? Guys that feel like they’ve been around forever but are still under 25? Dahl, Tapia, Margot, Barreto?

Billy Bathhouse: The Mondesi hype already seems to be way out of control. What can we realistically expect from this guy next year?

Brad Johnson: I talked through some Mondesi outcomes earlier this offseason.

Brad Johnson: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-first-one-about-adalberto-mondes…

Brad Johnson: I like Margot as a post-post-hype guy

Brad Johnson: This is another subject area I don’t really have prepared on October 30.

Brad Johnson: We’ll get there!

jim: 3 RH hitters in 9th and Boston brings in Sale rather than one of the top 3 closers in baseball.  Worked out, but what am I missing?

Brad Johnson: I think Kimbrel was probably more gassed than Sale

Reardon: Since it’s maybe just me and my C questions… the Grandal/Barnes platoon turned up great two years ago for a one C league – are there any combos that you see worth rostering both?

Reardon: Mikolas was great this year – any former MLB guys that might come back this winter?

Brad Johnson: There will be – just wait for some guys to sign

Brad Johnson: I don’t know of any big returnees like Mikolas or Thames

Brad Johnson: I got every question, huzzah.

Brad Johnson: See ya next week.