Properly Valuing Carlos Carrasco

To start off, Jeff Sullivan wrote an awesome piece on Carlos Carrasco on the main site. If I could make a request, it is that you read the above link prior to reading this piece on Carrasco’s fantasy value.

The one quote I loved from Jeff was what he ended with. He stated “it’s almost impossible to fake what he pulled off for a third of a season. It’s almost impossible to be that good without being at least kind of close to that good.”

From a fantasy perspective, that is exactly the concept I am using when evaluating Carrasco. Sure there is risk in betting on a guy based on 10 starts, but the 10 starts were so incredibly impressive that the upside of owning Carrasco – especially in long term formats – is well worth the risk of him turning back into a pumpkin.

Currently, Carrasco is ranked the 32nd and 34th best starting pitcher respectively on Yahoo! and ESPN. To me that seems very low. Take a Julio Teheran, for example, who I am a quite a fan of. I believe Teheran is a very quality pitcher but I think compared to Carrasco he has a higher floor and a lower ceiling. Teheran has a longer sample of success, but also does not quite have the dominant stretch or upside that Carrasco displayed at the tail end of last season when he was effectively the best pitcher in all of baseball. Even looking at Steamer projections, Carrasco is projected to have a 3.59 ERA and Teheran is at a 3.81 mark – and that includes the Carrasco performances prior to his altered arm slot.

The point is not that people are crazy for ranking Carrasco that low. I do not know that it is improper considering how small of a sample we have of the once great prospect actually producing. I do know that we are in this fake game to win and taking a guy like Carrasco who may end up being a top tier starter in terms of strikeouts and rate stats relatively late is what elevates teams from looking pretty good on draft day to being winners.

Nobody needs a lecture on risk/reward, but a 2.44 FIP over 134 innings (with a good portion of that being in relief) does not quite grow on trees and is difficult to acquire so late on draft day. Calculated risks are necessary in fantasy and I do not see many better calculated risks than focusing on Carrasco when your draft occurs. I am keeping Carrasco as a 10th round keeper in a league of mine and I am ecstatic about having his services along with Corey Kluber’s in the 17th. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Carrasco ends up being the next Kluber, or at least a Kluber-lite.