Pod’s Picks: Outfield
Outfield. The position with a ton of required starters that gives us much room for disagreement. In fact, I try my hardest to avoid drafting them early in a snake draft because I know there will be a whole bunch in the middle rounds I think are being drastically undervalued. If only I was in a fantasy league with 10 OF slots. One can only dream. In the outfield, I will only look at those I ranked in the top 64 as bullish picks, while the bearish group will include those in the consensus top 64.
Bullish
My Rank: 37 | Consensus: 57
Surprise, surprise. Nah, you’re really not surprised. I have participated in four drafts/auctions so far this year and I have him on all of my teams. You know why I like him this year. Yes, his BABIP will decline, but he exhibits the batted ball profile necessary to post an inflated mark and historically has done so in the minors. Power, speed, and a spot in the middle of a batting order (even if it’s one as poor as the Marlins) who is going 268th overall in NFBC leagues? Yes, please.
My Rank: 26 | Consensus: 44
Clearly a playing time thing. He now might be ready by opening day, which means even my 525 at-bat projection could be low. I don’t really have a clue how many stolen bases he’ll rack up this year, but at his draft cost, he seems like a fantastic pick.
My Rank: 19 | Consensus: 31
I am the outlier here for the veteran Victorino, as the other three rankers had him between 33 and 35. He will continue to provide a nice power/speed combination and his BABIP should rebound after he posted his second worst career mark.
My Rank: 35 | Consensus: 46
Mostly due to Zach Sanders’ ranking of 80 which really hurt the consensus here. The concern with Crisp is his health and the crowded Oakland outfield. But, he’s actually not much different than Victorino, and may even be labeled a poor man’s version.
My Rank: 11 | Consensus: 21
Rios has been maddeningly inconsistent, which hurts his perceived value as fantasy owners simply aren’t confident in what kind of performance they will get. But even with an expected regression from last year, this is still a 20/20 skill set. Oh, and he is supposed to be hitting third this season, rather than fifth. If that lineup switch sticks, that would boost his chances of earning this rank even higher.
Bearish
My Rank: 41 | Consensus: 28
Yes, he’s in an excellent lineup, in a great spot in that lineup, and moving to a strong hitter’s ballpark. But last year was mostly BABIP driven and one wonders how much longer this new sudden BABIP skill will continue. Before 2011, he was never above .309 and had posted sub-.300 marks in four of his five seasons. Will he continue to post double-digit steals hitting in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion? And how could we even be sure who the real Melky is after his PED suspension? Too many question marks to rank so highly.
My Rank: 75 | Consensus: 62
He’s fast, but doesn’t steal bases and at this point, it would be silly to suddenly expect the speed to translate. He tripled his HR/FB rate, but his average home run plus fly ball distance actually declined. In fact, his distance was the lowest of his career. And, he’s obviously not repeating that .390 BABIP. So, a power and batting average decline, plus nothing more than low double-digit steals for someone whose career high at-bat total is just 481. No thanks.
My Rank: 48 | Consensus: 36
Wow, where did that season come from? Simply based on age and history, you cannot possibly expect him to repeat that HR/FB rate. The steals too seem ripe for a disappearing act and betting on another near 550 at-bats would be foolish. My projections are close to what the Fans are projecting, and that’s just not the stat package of the 36th best outfielder.
My Rank: 49 | Consensus: 38
This surprises me as in my drafts/auctions, he has been either fairly valued or undervalued. I thought I liked him as a nice power/speed combo, but seems like my fellow rankers like him even more than I do. In fact, I actually drafted him in LABR. His poor contact and walk rates in his cup of coffee last year are concerns, so he may not last in the leadoff slot, let alone remain in the Majors all season. But still, he’s a potential 15/30 guy who may very well be had late in drafts, so I would certainly not consider myself bearish.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Agree on Fowler, his home/away splits are crazy. At one point in June, he had a HR/FB at home above 50%!! Talent-wise, I think he’s a complete mirage.
Crisp over Melky is wild. It only makes sense if Crisp plays every day, which I don’t trust will happen with the crowd that Oakland has assembled for its outfield. Even with the regression, I’ll take Melky’s lineup, playing time, and home park.
Victorino:
http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=844773-red-sox-shane-victorino-slowing-down
“His bat looks slow. He looks thicker also.” From an anonymous scout. Really? That’s the most useless spring training noise ever. Remember when David Ortiz’ bat looked slow several years ago and many thought he was done after his poor April? Yeah, guess they were wrong about that too.
Maybe.
It’s not gospel. Just a data point. Did you watch the WBC? 1-11 with 5 Ks and looked not good. Yeah it’s early. The Ortiz thing is just a strawman. Just because a totally different report on a different player years ago proved false doesn’t really have any bearing here.
Last year might have been a career worst BABIP but it’s only .005 what his 2010 BABIP was. There’s no particular reason to assume it bounces back to career levels established when he was a younger guy.
Alls I’m saying is that when I’ve got a guy who is 32 and relies on his legs for a good amount of his fantasy value and who I see looking slow and I see a report that agrees, I’m at least thinking about it.
Nevertheless, I see your point that it was kind of a flimsy link. Just kind of happened to stick with me because it conformed to something I was thinking.
i still think that whole ortiz sequence happened because his wrist got messed up and it took him a couple of years to completely get over it. his bat *was* slower, then it sped up again
Mike,
I’m drafting at positions 10, 11 in a ten team keeper league. Already holding Paul Goldschmidt and Starlin Castro, so drafting a middle and a corner man are not a priority. My focus is on the outfield, particularly a core group of players including: Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista.
Do any of these players get a significant edge or a bump in a league that favors OBP? Would it be a huge mistake to load up on power early and go for the jugular with a Stanton / Bautista combination? I’ve gone back and forth on this for months, now. Help!
Yup, Stanton and Bautista get bumps. I still worry about Bautista’s wrist though. But Tout Wars was an OBP league and I had Bautista valued 3rd among all OFers and Stanton 6th. Upton was 8th and CarGo 7th. So yeah, I like Bautista and Stanton and that’s even with a somewhat conservative HR/FB projection for Bautista.
Thanks, Mike. I really appreciate the feedback.
MP: Care to share your thoughts on these guys (who are all competing for the last on/first out OF slot on my 25-man, 12-team, mixed roster): Cory Hart, Juan Pierre, and Lorenzo Cain.
I have, through hook and also by crook, obtained Trout, Heyward, and Justin Upton in my other 3 OF slots.
Depends on how large your bench is and if you have DL slots. If you have a reasonably sized bench and/or DL slots, then Hart. If not, then Cain. Umm, nice OF. We should all be so lucky!
Thanks for the tip.
Going a layer deeper – how many outfielders would you want? Do you build a roster with an eye to having OF depth, given how relatively thin the position can get late in drafts?
Context: With daily transactions, I can activate 11 position players (1 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, LF/RF/CF/OF, and 1 UTIL; no middle or corner) and 8 active pitchers (3 SP, 2 RP, and 3 generic “P” slots). That allows for a 6-player bench, plus I can utilize up to 3 DL slots.
In that format, I tend to use a light bench and instead load up on SP and middle relievers (our 7×6 roto-scoring format uses the 5×5 categories plus OBP, SLG, and Holds).
In this format, I tend to carry 6 SP and 5-6 RP (including 3 setup guys) and only 1-2 position players on my bench. Would you configure your roster differently?
That is exactly what I always recommend. Load up on young starting pitchers with breakout potential and hope to hit on a couple. In daily leagues, relievers are worth a lot more so I completely agreed with your thoughts.