Pod vs Steamer Projections — Home Run Downside

I love comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer, since mine are all done in a massively time consuming manner by hand, while Steamer is spit out by the almighty computer in mere seconds. It works as a sort of checks and balances system, as I am likely aware of various issues the computer doesn’t know about, while I might have some inherent biases I don’t even realize that the computer won’t suffer from.

So today, I continue my new series pitting my projections against Steamer in a specific fantasy relevant stat category. Last Thursday, I listed the hitters that I was most bullish on for home runs compared to Steamer, so today, I’ll look into the hitters Steamer is most bullish on compared to my projections.

As a reminder, I extrapolated the Steamer home run projections to the same number of at-bats as my forecasts, so playing time disagreement don’t factor into our differences.

Bryce Harper’s 2015 has spoiled us all, and even the projection systems. The problem is that now everything thinks that’s his upside to “rebound” to after enduring his worst full-season offensive performance of his career. The problem is that not only was 2015 historically good, of course, but that it screams outlier compared to every other season. Aside from the down 2014, following by the UP 2015, his ISO has been around .200 and his HR/FB rate has been somewhere in the mid-to-high teen range. xHR/FB rate suggests that he was quite fortunate in 2015 and his Brls/BBE was literally cut in half in 2016. You always have to wonder how much injuries have and will continue to affect Harper’s performance.

So you don’t think I’m nuts, I am projecting a jump to a 17% HR/FB rate, which is just below his second best career mark of 18% set in 2013. But unless you’re wishcasting, I can’t possibly justify actually projecting anything higher than that. Obviously, higher could happen as we know what he’s capable of. But a projection is different than a prediction and I’m quite surprised by how bullish all the projections are on Harper.

Welp, how much could possibly be said about Eric Thames? I, you, the Brewers, and Steamer, have no f*cking clue! He only has 633 Major League plate appearances to his name, and that was all the way back in 2011 and 2012. In his short career, he homered once every 30 at-bats. Steamer is projecting him to nearly double that rate, homering every 16.4 at-bats! That’s a remarkable improvement. Has he become a significantly better hitter in the KBO League or is the pitching just that much worse? Steamer feels too optimistic to me, but heck, we’re all just almost totally guessing here. That said, I do like him as a fantasy asset given that in the generic league, he’s going for a reasonable price (43rd among OFers, 192 overall) that leaves plenty of room for profit.

Ahh Christian Yelich, our first example of a guy that Steamer might have a different opinion on if it projected batted ball type distribution. Yelich just posted a career high FB% of…20%. That’s a career high, folks. Because he hits so few fly balls, he required a 23.6% HR/FB rate (nearly double his 2015 mark) just to clear the 20 homer barrier. Sure, he more than doubled his Brls/BBE, which is great, but that just resulted in an xHR/FB rate in the mid-teens, a far cry from his actual mark. I’m projecting a drop back down to 16%, which would still be well above his 2014 and 2015 marks.

Are projections any more meaningless than for a guy like Yasiel Puig? He has tantalized at times, but has now disappointed offensively for two straight seasons. Steamer is now the high man on the totem pole, while the Fans are at the bottom. How often does that happen?! Clearly, the Fans have lost all hope, but Steamer is emotionless. Steamer is very likely assuming growth almost strictly based on age here and blindly expecting improvement. Puig’s xHR/FB rate has perfectly validated his actual marks these past two seasons. I am projecting slight improvement to 13%, from 12%, on the HR/FB rate front, but as 2013 gets further and further into the rearview mirror, it’s hard to keep factoring that performance into projections.

It’s funny how fantasy baseball works. Last season, I was gung-ho on Wil Myers, as he made my list of 8 Hitters with Major HR/FB Rate Upside, which, in part, led to my bold prediction that he’d hit 25 homers and knock in 90 runs. He then goes out and does exactly that and now suddenly I’m bearish! That’s because his 2016 Brls/BBE was almost identical to his 2015 mark and his xHR/FB rate increased by just half a percent! Yet, his HR/FB rate spiked from 13.6% to 18.7%. Hmmmmm. So I simply don’t think that HR/FB rate surge is sustainable, and if you pair that with the questionable ability to repeat 20+ steals, you get a guy who’s unlikely to earn his draft day cost.

I actually kind of like Scott Schebler as a sleeper, but apparently I’m far lower on his power than everyone else. My issue is that his Brls/BBE was a mere 5.8%, a level in which power luminaries such as Starlin Castro, Brett Lawrie, and Starling Marte hung out at. Furthermore, he hit fly balls just 29.1% of the time, a rate far too low for a supposed power hitter. Don’t let his appearance here discourage you from rostering him, but just be aware that there are some red flags with regards to his home run potential.