Plate Appearance Disagreements: Part 1

by
January 31, 2019

It is projection churning season and today, I’m going to investigate hitters in the top-200 who have the largest variation in projected plate appearances. I’m trying to see who seems off and any adjustments I’d make to their projections.

Normally, I just use a plate appearance average of several unique sources for my projections. I don’t have time to adjust each player. For now, I’m using five sources who constantly update their projected playing time. One is FanGraphs but I’m not going to reveal the other four as I don’t want to debate their merits. More importantly, it’s tough to know for sure who is wrong and who is right. In most instances, a reasonable explanation can be drawn for any total. Besides the players with the larger variation, I’ve included my top-300 hitters at the article’s end with their plate appearance differences.

Note: I ignored catchers and will look at them in detail at a later date.

Eloy Jimenez
Range: 336
Standard Deviation: 238
Average: 446

I’m not surprised with Jimenez being divisive. I sort of expected projections to have him being promoted either in mid-April (extra year of service) or early June (miss July two cutoff). One source was extremely low with a sub-300 value increasing the range. For me, I’d split the possible callup dates and go with a 525 plate appearance total and adjust it as more news becomes available.

Hunter Renfroe
Range: 303
Standard Deviation: 116
Average: 470

The extreme range of values makes sense. The Padres outfield situation is a complete nightmare to figure out and Renfroe is likely going to be in some kind of part-time role. If a source uses ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ for the total, I’d completely understand.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Range: 259
Standard Deviation: 119
Average: 510

One source is a little ahead of the pack on adjusting Gurriel’s playing time down after the Freddy Galvis signing.

For now, I’m just going to stay away from this situation until a clearer playing time picture emerges. I think there could be value here but I’m not sure with who exactly.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Range: 255
Standard Deviation: 97
Average: 499

If he’s healthy, I expect him to be in the majors in just two weeks after the season starts and tally up 550 PA. One source has him being a mid-season call-up. Removing it, the average is 538 PA which is more in line with my expectations.

Jay Bruce
Range: 238
Standard Deviation: 93
Average: 457

With his projection, three sources were in the 450 range and the other two are on the extremes. I can sort of see the path to full-time at-bats if Edwin Encarnacion is traded. Until then, it looks like Ryon Healy and Bruce will be splitting time at first since the outfield is set with Haniger, Smith, and Santana. A total in the 400 to 450 range seems about right.

Hernan Perez
Range: 210
Standard Deviation: 86
Average: 400

Four of the sources have him at 400 or fewer plate appearances and then there is us here are FanGraphs with 545. While we have him with 315 PA at second (fine for now) it is the 230 other plate appearance which I’m suspect of. His last three plate appearance totals were 430, 458, and 334. A value around 400 seems about right and I’ll just go with the average.

Daniel Palka
Range: 204
Standard Deviation: 85
Average: 486

One source is really high on him, but I have my doubts because he’s likely to get platooned (.570 OPS vs LHP, .824 vs RHP). The White Sox were already platooning him last season. Of the last seven lefty starters the White Sox faced last season, Palka sat against six of them. He’s a 450 to 500 PA hitter so the average projection seems a bit high.

Adam Frazier
Range: 202
Standard Deviation: 86
Average: 522

Three sources have him as a full-time player and two have him around 400 PA. The difference comes down to how much Erik Gonzalez plays at second. Frazier is projected to have a wOBA 30 points higher than Gonzalez so Frazier should regularly play. I’m going to go with a 550 to 600 PA projection.

Victor Robles
Range: 200
Standard Deviation: 86
Average: 545

The average value comes down to one source having him at 400 PA. If healthy, Robles’s total is going to be high while possibly leading off for the Nationals. I’m a believer in a value near 600 PA.

Zack Cozart

Range: 188
Standard Deviation: 73
Average: 540

I can see how each source came up with their totals. For reference, here are Cozart’s plate appearances from the last five seasons.

2014: 543
2015: 214
2016: 508
2017: 507
2018: 253

I’m thinking the 540 total is a little high with one source putting their money on a healthy full season. Another is hoping for a total closer to 400 PA. I’ll probably go with some health and roll with the average value.

That’s it for today. I’ll continue to go through these comparisons as the draft season goes on and will get a starting pitcher inning pitched list out tomorrow.

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Plate Appearance Differences From Various Sources
Rank Name Range Average Median Standard Deviation
1 Mike Trout 16 650 647 7
2 Mookie Betts 61 665 675 25
3 J.D. Martinez 60 625 628 24
4 Jose Ramirez 57 654 651 24
5 Javier Baez 55 638 637 22
6 Trea Turner 62 660 646 26
7 Francisco Lindor 89 675 680 34
8 Christian Yelich 29 651 651 11
9 Nolan Arenado 52 650 651 19
10 Giancarlo Stanton 45 637 646 18
11 Alex Bregman 38 662 651 18
12 Trevor Story 37 631 638 18
13 Ronald Acuna Jr. 39 637 640 17
14 Jose Altuve 59 647 644 23
15 Manny Machado 416 574 630 169
16 Bryce Harper 171 606 630 69
17 Whit Merrifield 64 643 646 25
18 Freddie Freeman 45 653 646 17
19 Paul Goldschmidt 46 663 659 17
20 Cody Bellinger 54 612 628 25
21 Starling Marte 67 613 608 31
22 Aaron Judge 66 624 634 26
23 Juan Soto 34 633 637 13
24 Andrew Benintendi 77 658 646 30
25 Adalberto Mondesi 143 582 570 54
26 Charlie Blackmon 47 652 646 24
27 Anthony Rendon 36 637 644 15
28 Rhys Hoskins 41 634 632 18
29 Xander Bogaerts 27 637 644 11
30 Jean Segura 41 636 637 17
31 Justin Upton 58 622 619 22
32 Anthony Rizzo 34 650 651 14
33 Travis Shaw 41 611 612 20
34 Eddie Rosario 110 607 615 46
35 Yasiel Puig 51 566 557 23
36 Mallex Smith 82 610 614 30
37 Khris Davis 72 625 628 28
38 Joey Votto 30 642 646 12
39 Kris Bryant 73 630 637 30
40 Jonathan Villar 109 597 604 39
41 Dee Gordon 91 619 644 42
42 Tommy Pham 92 574 584 37
43 Joey Gallo 85 600 578 39
44 George Springer 103 639 644 38
45 Eugenio Suarez 52 629 630 21
46 Marcell Ozuna 27 620 617 12
47 David Dahl 133 557 575 50
48 Gleyber Torres 96 592 609 38
49 Lorenzo Cain 65 630 630 25
50 Mike Moustakas 365 552 616 159
51 Carlos Correa 66 622 628 26
52 Asdrubal Cabrera 112 557 565 43
53 Matt Olson 39 633 641 18
54 Ozzie Albies 59 641 651 26
55 Nicholas Castellanos 71 644 646 25
56 Mitch Haniger 126 625 634 48
57 Miguel Andujar 88 591 604 36
58 Michael Conforto 35 629 623 15
59 Ender Inciarte 95 627 639 37
60 Nelson Cruz 52 608 612 19
61 Scooter Gennett 47 614 612 18
62 Jesus Aguilar 53 603 593 25
63 Edwin Encarnacion 64 603 612 29
64 Justin Turner 134 576 586 52
65 Daniel Murphy 106 559 552 46
66 Jose Peraza 83 625 612 32
67 Jose Abreu 124 598 612 51
68 Ian Desmond 127 525 539 51
69 A.J. Pollock 85 557 566 34
70 Andrew McCutchen 62 622 621 23
71 Matt Chapman 53 639 641 21
72 Shohei Ohtani 14 483 484 5
73 Matt Carpenter 61 636 632 23
74 Wil Myers 130 543 560 53
75 Carlos Santana 51 651 646 23
76 Aaron Hicks 106 586 578 45
77 Rougned Odor 32 623 618 12
78 Marwin Gonzalez 187 510 516 69
79 Robinson Cano 112 612 624 43
80 Yuli Gurriel 39 540 544 15
81 David Peralta 104 596 602 49
82 Michael Brantley 125 574 590 48
83 Brian Dozier 76 586 587 34
84 Jonathan Schoop 62 581 595 27
85 Ryan Braun 132 517 540 53
86 Jake Bauers 123 577 577 53
87 Tim Anderson 59 599 590 24
88 Corey Dickerson 70 583 583 26
89 Eduardo Escobar 59 611 621 27
90 Stephen Piscotty 66 611 611 23
91 Jurickson Profar 153 556 559 60
92 Corey Seager 130 603 635 55
93 Amed Rosario 39 612 610 15
94 Jorge Polanco 94 616 623 37
95 Andrelton Simmons 54 629 635 23
96 Marcus Semien 67 621 612 28
97 Nomar Mazara 66 607 606 30
98 Max Muncy 60 534 520 29
99 Elvis Andrus 73 618 621 27
100 Jake Lamb 69 578 579 27
101 Adam Jones 161 578 592 64
102 Ketel Marte 90 584 589 33
103 Chris Taylor 93 582 581 34
104 Yoan Moncada 116 615 619 44
105 Gary Sanchez 77 513 515 27
106 Wilmer Flores 135 536 544 62
107 Randal Grichuk 125 524 529 52
108 Justin Smoak 69 606 609 29
109 Kyle Seager 32 630 630 15
110 J.T. Realmuto 75 558 547 31
111 Eric Hosmer 58 642 646 22
112 Odubel Herrera 38 600 605 15
113 Adam Eaton 140 536 501 63
114 Josh Bell 41 602 616 21
115 Rafael Devers 95 567 569 36
116 Trey Mancini 35 620 623 14
117 C.J. Cron 111 505 508 40
118 Victor Robles 200 545 595 86
119 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 255 499 512 97
120 Max Kepler 78 583 580 30
121 Billy Hamilton 84 543 544 34
122 Josh Donaldson 75 548 560 33
123 Hernan Perez 210 400 371 86
124 Cesar Hernandez 110 624 644 45
125 Brian Anderson 84 622 623 33
126 Niko Goodrum 66 550 544 26
127 Paul DeJong 150 550 590 66
128 Brandon Nimmo 59 610 611 24
129 Jackie Bradley Jr. 120 573 567 47
130 Starlin Castro 38 627 633 16
131 Kyle Schwarber 64 546 564 31
132 Kevin Pillar 59 579 578 25
133 Shin-Soo Choo 153 576 581 64
134 Harrison Bader 80 555 558 32
135 Ryan Zimmerman 64 505 490 31
136 Enrique Hernandez 163 461 469 71
137 Miguel Sano 101 548 574 48
138 Jesse Winker 155 509 540 63
139 Jason Kipnis 43 590 587 17
140 Ramon Laureano 158 512 529 63
141 Willy Adames 79 594 615 35
142 Daniel Palka 204 486 476 85
143 Hunter Renfroe 303 470 476 116
144 Evan Longoria 86 589 598 34
145 Cedric Mullins II 89 591 589 35
146 Kole Calhoun 86 599 605 32
147 Steven Souza Jr. 61 553 546 23
148 Mark Trumbo 112 548 553 44
149 Adam Frazier 202 522 568 86
150 Ian Happ 132 472 447 54
151 Jay Bruce 238 457 476 93
152 Yasmani Grandal 38 463 467 17
153 Joey Wendle 140 483 510 57
154 Maikel Franco 117 512 497 48
155 Byron Buxton 151 476 501 64
156 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 259 469 510 119
157 Justin Bour 87 455 442 40
158 Zack Cozart 188 540 531 73
159 Leonys Martin 64 483 476 25
160 Nick Markakis 127 552 531 52
161 Jeimer Candelario 82 628 630 33
162 Eloy Jimenez 336 446 444 130
163 Brett Gardner 193 494 531 85
164 Buster Posey 98 516 543 43
165 Yadier Molina 54 503 505 20
166 Austin Meadows 308 444 476 121
167 Willson Contreras 66 506 510 28
168 Tyler White 200 502 501 82
169 Luke Voit 145 448 437 54
170 Avisail Garcia 298 449 478 110
171 Matt Kemp 320 392 418 120
172 Kevin Kiermaier 175 516 476 82
173 Brandon Belt 145 568 574 52
174 Salvador Perez 24 525 532 11
175 Carlos Gonzalez 242 389 340 108
176 Eduardo Nunez 294 341 407 137
177 Domingo Santana 371 498 556 150
178 Ben Zobrist 105 467 476 42
179 Brandon Crawford 107 591 604 40
180 Ronald Guzman 153 507 514 61
181 Josh Reddick 101 451 476 43
182 Jason Heyward 64 497 510 27
183 Kendrys Morales 163 520 476 72
184 Yolmer Sanchez 96 601 612 37
185 David Fletcher 160 516 478 74
186 DJ LeMahieu 150 459 436 66
187 Joc Pederson 373 391 476 158
188 Teoscar Hernandez 168 465 482 67
189 Kolten Wong 138 476 490 51
190 Mitch Moreland 145 450 476 58
191 Jed Lowrie 233 543 580 94
192 Nick Ahmed 138 557 544 51
193 Ian Kinsler 247 474 513 99
194 Franmil Reyes 464 416 442 167
195 Ryon Healy 302 434 420 128
196 Eric Thames 177 296 276 75
197 Colin Moran 31 499 505 12
198 Christin Stewart 188 513 535 75
199 Nick Williams 257 446 492 104
200 Orlando Arcia 84 521 513 36
201 Scott Schebler 180 454 451 74
202 Renato Nunez 163 530 544 62
203 Ryan O’Hearn 208 554 585 84
204 Yonder Alonso 187 527 543 71
205 Gregory Polanco 217 403 420 80
206 Wilson Ramos 96 427 430 37
207 Hunter Dozier 110 526 510 44
208 Alen Hanson 280 324 265 116
209 Delino DeShields 174 437 484 76
210 Steven Duggar 210 524 510 81
211 Alex Gordon 249 530 553 95
212 Neil Walker 405 332 340 149
213 Chris Davis 111 523 514 41
214 Manuel Margot 229 445 481 96
215 Ji-Man Choi 99 461 479 43
216 Dansby Swanson 109 507 510 40
217 Jorge Soler 236 471 461 89
218 Austin Slater 269 402 442 103
219 Matt Duffy 228 438 397 108
220 Johan Camargo 177 398 398 69
221 Greg Allen 306 371 398 119
222 Jordy Mercer 130 502 490 51
223 Willie Calhoun 154 360 362 63
224 Mike Zunino 75 430 425 30
225 Jose Iglesias 331 448 462 143
226 Jose Martinez 267 379 451 120
227 Franchy Cordero 220 329 336 91
228 Tyler Naquin 332 409 401 134
229 Daniel Robertson 260 390 378 98
230 Yangervis Solarte 353 345 350 147
231 J.T. Riddle 101 514 493 43
232 Nick Senzel 86 344 328 39
233 Danny Jansen 88 410 408 42
234 Jordan Luplow 332 365 394 128
235 John Hicks 123 369 374 50
236 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 147 341 340 63
237 Joe Panik 84 526 538 33
238 Ryan McMahon 379 351 339 143
239 Albert Almora Jr. 210 428 470 87
240 Albert Pujols 135 386 414 57
241 Didi Gregorius 139 282 294 52
242 Jeff McNeil 209 332 306 96
243 Miguel Cabrera 141 558 543 57
244 Todd Frazier 231 404 408 104
245 Billy McKinney 221 404 359 94
246 Francisco Cervelli 58 439 442 22
247 Robinson Chirinos 44 390 384 20
248 Lewis Brinson 100 486 510 44
249 Garrett Hampson 344 364 385 136
250 Yairo Munoz 149 183 172 64
251 JaCoby Jones 173 459 408 85
252 Alex Verdugo 285 365 293 121
253 Dustin Fowler 448 264 302 183
254 Carlos Gomez 286 378 350 107
255 Keon Broxton 262 365 403 109
256 Freddy Galvis 446 417 350 207
257 Michael A. Taylor 159 296 311 69
258 Denard Span 263 328 321 110
259 Erik Gonzalez 153 337 366 65
260 Roman Quinn 281 285 267 104
261 Evan Gattis 363 399 350 139
262 Tyler O’Neill 313 308 374 135
263 Austin Dean 423 399 464 170
264 Jorge Alfaro 69 414 416 28
265 Luis Urias 174 533 575 80
266 Matt Adams 92 273 272 40
267 Adam Engel 305 412 386 130
268 Tucker Barnhart 89 467 472 35
269 Leury Garcia 410 292 278 153
270 Chris Owings 143 342 348 54
271 Devon Travis 156 422 421 63
272 Lonnie Chisenhall 126 311 335 51
273 Josh Harrison 219 417 370 100
274 Austin Hedges 121 347 327 57
275 Kyle Tucker 274 266 242 102
276 Jonathan Lucroy 96 419 424 40
277 Peter Alonso 188 378 389 71
278 Logan Morrison 476 384 353 179
279 Jedd Gyorko 154 291 257 63
280 Yandy Diaz 74 467 476 29
281 Alcides Escobar 168 346 334 71
282 Dexter Fowler 123 381 383 48
283 Kurt Suzuki 144 308 307 51
284 Jarrod Dyson 165 233 256 64
285 Mac Williamson 233 420 433 88
286 Mikie Mahtook 286 376 428 128
287 Miguel Rojas 206 325 339 77
288 Aledmys Diaz 241 219 213 96
289 Steve Pearce 71 300 304 28
290 Mark Canha 159 296 301 67
291 Mitch Garver 268 321 327 106
292 Chad Pinder 170 256 252 61
293 J.P. Crawford 150 397 374 65
294 Martin Prado 231 405 396 108
295 Tyler Austin 113 238 272 55
296 Kevin Newman 465 346 331 166
297 Austin Barnes 112 346 354 44
298 Scott Kingery 125 298 272 54
299 David Freese 163 249 272 62
300 Yan Gomes 101 334 351 43





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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manormachine
6 years ago

Will you do something like this for starting pitchers and games started/innings pitched as well?

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Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
6 years ago
Reply to  manormachine

Read the last sentence

6