It’s Ottoneu Cut Day!

If you’re participating in an ottoneu league, chances are it’s reached a frenzied pitch over the last few days. The winter keeper deadline is tonight, January 31 at 11:59pm ET. All trades and cuts must be executed by that time.

For last minute keeper, cut, and trade advice, I recommend joining my personal BaseballATeam Discord server. Use the #ottoneu thread. The knowledgeable community of superfans loves to offer their opinions, and I’ll be around intermittently whilst tending to my own ottoneu decisions.

What follows are a series of deadline deals I struck earlier in the week. I’m updating this post as we speak with more trades! If you read this post on Tuesday, I’ve marked new deals with a snazzy —New Trade— logo.

Ottoneu FanGraphs Staff Two

Team background and needs: As is often true of rosters that finished first, first, first, and second over the last four seasons, I’m all clogged up on big contracts. Every winter is an exercise in hemorrhaging value without throwing in the towel. Fortunately, a $6 Juan Soto and a $5 Gleyber Torres can do a lot to salve my wounds. I still needed to cut some costs.

Trade #1

I trade:$13 Kyle Hendricks, $4 Yonny Chirinos

I receive: $8 Ryan O’Hearn, $2 Dylan Cease

I’m not at all sure I’ll be keeping O’Hearn. I haven’t ruled it out either, but it’s hard to feel confident about a Royals pseudo-prospect. Cease was the prize for me, one I expect to return better than a couple of fairly priced pitchers during the season.

Trade #2

I trade: $20 Carlos Martinez, $7 Scooter Gennett

I receive: $9 Jameson Taillon, $5 Forrest Whitley

I teamed up with Sheryl Ring for this trade. She’s sitting on a ton of spare payroll capacity and could afford to bet on the more expensive pitcher. She’s also been asking me for Gennett for a while including multiple offers involving Whitley. As with Cease, I think he’ll flower (via trade) into a serious reinforcement.

I’ve cut costs so efficiently that I can afford to either add some salary back to my roster or else I can actually participate in the auction for the first time in half a decade.

—New Trade—

Trade #3

I trade: $7 Justin Smoak

I receive: $3 Tyler O’Neill

I didn’t really have a spot to play Smoak. Not that I’ll be playing O’Neill anytime soon. I don’t expect him to begin the season with the Cardinals. Did you know O’Neill absolutely murders all fastballs? He’s the real Pedro Cerrano though – throw him a slider, and he might as well be a pitcher. Perhaps he’ll improve?

—New Trade—

Trade #4 

I trade: $8 Ryan O’Hearn, $3 Mike Soroka

I receive: $20 Michael Conforto, $4 Jesus Sanchez

On Tuesday, I admitted I wasn’t sure if I would keep O’Hearn. After trading Smoak earlier today, it was at least more likely, although I was still very much on the fence. I’m similar unsure if keeping a $4 Sanchez is a good use of resources. He’s more of a $1 prospect in my eyes.

The crux of the deal was a cheap Soroka for a full-priced Conforto. At his best, Conforto teases low-end elite point totals. Especially if you avoid the toughest left-handed starters. I’m reasonably comfortable waving away his rough first half to 2018 as an artifact of his previous shoulder injury. I had about $30 left that I wanted to spend. Conforto brings me most of the way there.

Trade #5

I have agreement in principle for another deal. We’ll see if it’s formally accepted.

Ottoneu Screw Cancer

Team background and needs: I’m co-managing this team with one of my patrons. Yesterday, we decided to eschew reserving budget for the auction in exchange for a $51 Max Scherzer. The rest of our roster is balanced and deep. With 16 roster spots remaining, the only needs are a couple catchers and three relievers.

Trade #6

I trade: $9 Robbie Ray, $5 Kevin Gausman, $3 Kyle Freeland, $6 Zack Godley

I receive: $51 Scherzer, $6 Ross Stripling

It’s a pitching bonanza! We sent a platter of upside volume for possibly the top pitcher in the league (and a bunch of payroll commitment). Nabbing a bet on Stripling who posts lovely ottoneu numbers was a happy bonus. He’ll Still Get His Starts.

—New Trade—

Trade #7

I trade: $10 Rich Hill, $3 Hunter Renfroe

I receive: $8 Ramon Laureano, $4 Brad Keller

Just shuffling the board a little. I like Keller about as much as Hill in an FGpts format. It helps when wins don’t matter and preventing home runs is half the game. I’m a Laureano truther and until now somehow owned NO shares. Shame on me.

20-Team Dynasty

Team background and needs: This is a weird league I keep promising to write about. It’s 20-team dynasty, but the keeper list is fairly shallow (14 to 18 players). Players cannot be rostered until the season after they debut.

Trade #8

I trade: Jonathan Schoop and Kyle Gibson

I receive: A second round pick (#30 overall)

My roster is decently deep so I’m trying to aggregate talent. If I can cut down to 14 players, I get to participate in our Rule 5 draft which is where I took Michael Brantley, Jose Martinez, and Ketel Marte last season. It’s free value if you can do enough aggregating. Both Schoop and Gibson were easily outside my top 14 players. The 30th pick should be a solid asset like Christin Stewart.

20-Team Industry Dynasty

Team background and needs: This is a tricky OBP dynasty filled with industry folk. I share a roster with Chad Young. We’ve been stuck in third place for a couple years (which is mostly a good thing). Our roster is very win-now, but we always reload enough in the draft to stay competitive. We keep 28 in this one. No frills.

Trade #9

I trade: Justin Smoak, pick 17.18 (#338 overall)

I receive: Michael Busch, pick 6.08 (118th overall)

We’re allowed to roster amateurs. Busch is considered by some to be the most advanced college hitter in the draft. He’s projected to go anywhere from the top 10 to first round supplemental. This is a weekly league and Smoak could fall into the wrong side of a time share with Kendrys Morales and Ronald Guzman Rowdy Tellez. Our roster has plenty of first basemen and utility types. An extreme excess actually.

Even if the swap doesn’t work out, players like Smoak don’t have much value in this league. An early draft pick can be converted into a late-20s aged core performer. Given the shape of our roster, I think this was a reasonable bet. We’ll see how it looks in June.

Trade #10

I trade: pick 3.18 (58th overall)

I receive: Miguel Cabrera, pick 14.12 (272nd overall)

Although our team has more than 28 should-be-kept players, a problem which could result in us receiving no value for a decent asset, there’s enough chance of a Miggy rebound to pay this modest price. Third round picks generally are used on prospects who can be later traded for a David Peralta type. Or they might whiff. We’re just getting that out of the way up front by keeping Cabrera.

On the one hand, this is kind of a weird undoing of the Smoak swap. But I see a lot more room to profit. Besides prospects like Busch are gone by the end of the first round of our draft. Those that aren’t kept are quickly selected.

—New Trade—

Trade #11

I trade: Jed Lowrie, Charlie Morton

I receive: Adam Eaton, Joey Wendle, Kyle Gibson

I matched up with our old friend Eno Sarris to bring this one to fruition. We had a surplus of second baseman of which Lowrie was the oldest. Wendle is coming off a rookie campaign in which he roughly matched Lowrie’s output. I have serious reservations about his playing time, but we could afford to take on a little risk/reward.

The same is true of the Eaton-Gibson for Morton portion of the swap. We had spare pitching, and although we did not need an outfielder either, Eaton represents a solid upside gamble. Between Cabrera, Eaton, and Wendle, we’ll probably make a modest profit. I just don’t know which player(s) will supply it.

—New Trade—

Trade #12

I trade: Dinelson Lamet

I receive: Adam Haseley

This one is pretty simple. We had excess pitching and a lack of prospects. Haseley is a prospect whose value should increase with the help of Coors Field East (he’ll start the season in Reading).

No Mas

That’s what I’ve been doing over these last couple weeks. What deals have you hammered out?