Pitching Streamers For 9/10 Through 9/15
After an awful debut showing several weeks ago when I first started identifying streaming candidates, I came back with a roar last week to save face. In 6 starts spanning 35.1 innings, my streamer staff won 4 games and posted a sterling 2.80 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, while compiling 30 strikeouts. I’m pretty sure that was better than any of my actual staffs filled with start-every-week pitchers. Here are this week’s picks.
Tuesday
Zach McAllister vs KC
This choice here is primarily due to the opposition, as I don’t think that McAllister is a very good pitcher. We know that the Royals don’t have a whole lot of power (they rank 28th in baseball in ISO), which is good for McAllister who is a fly ball pitcher. They are also an impatient bunch, ranking 26th in baseball in walk percentage. McAllister will take the mound at home and face off against Jeremy Guthrie, owner of a ghastly 4.81 SIERA.
Wednesday
Scott Kazmir vs KC
For the second straight week, I am recommending Kazmir. And even after his six shutout inning, 12 strikeout gem against the Mets last Friday, his ownership in CBS leagues remains below 50%. I don’t get it. He’ll be facing the same punchless Royals squad as McAllister, though gets the better opposing pitcher in James Shields, who’s probably due for a perfect game after his 10 run blowup against the Tigers last outing.
Kazmir owns a 3.66 SIERA and has struck out nearly a batter per inning. Even more amazing about the new Kazmir though is that he suddenly possesses good control. He’s throwing a slightly higher rate of first pitch strikes than the league average and his Zone% is significantly higher. This has all led to the lowest walk percentage of his career. Don’t let his 4.17 ERA fool you into thinking Kazmir 2.0 isn’t just as effective as peak form Kazmir.
Thursday
Tanner Roark @ NYM
Raise your hand if you knew that Tanner Roark holds a sub-1.00 ERA over 28.2 innings. Those hands in the air must be representative of his fantasy owners. Though he has made just one Major League start, you couldn’t ask for an easier opponent than the Mets. Roark brings a strong ground ball rate and excellent control to Citi Field, but he shouldn’t be expected to be much of a contributor in strikeouts given his paltry 6% SwStk%.
Friday
Charlie Morton vs CHC
This start might not actually happen as Morton is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. I have been hyping Morton for the last couple of years, whether in writing or in radio show or podcast form. Finally, his skills have taken that step forward to make him worthy of shallow mixed league consideration. He still doesn’t generate as many swings and misses as you might expect given his outwardly good stuff, but he is an extreme ground ball pitcher and has been showing good control. He’ll get the light hitting Cubs lineup and the erratic Jake Arrieta at home.
Saturday
None. Most pitchers are highly owned, and if not, they are mediocre or worse with poor matchups. There is one potential streaming option and that’s in the Marlins double header versus the Mets. At the moment, only Henderson Alvarez is scheduled, so depending on who the other starter is for the Fish, he could be a candidate.
Sunday
Chris Capuano vs SF
Capuano left his last start with a groin strain, but it doesn’t appear serious and it seems that the Dodgers have elected to push him back a couple of days to Sunday. He gets a good matchup against the Giants and Ryan Vogelsong. Capuano has been hampered by a .333 BABIP, which sits at a career high, that has resulted in a sub-70% LOB%. His SIERA is actually identical to last year when his ERA was below 4.00. He still has some strikeout ability and is backed by a pretty good Dodgers offense.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Wheeler is available in my H2H league for Wednesday. Worth a flier over Kazmir?
try to get both
I’d prefer Kazmir if you can only choose one.
How do you feel about Saunders tonight vs Houston?
I wouldn’t touch Joe Saunders in anything but an AL-Only Saunders league.
Thoughts on Petition at home against COL tomorrow? I would have to drop Garza (home v PIT) or A. Wood (@MIA) to pick up Petition. Thanks Mike
Haha, had to look up who you meant by “Petition”. He scares the heck out of me given his extreme fly ball tendency and poor track record. No way I drop Garza or Wood for him.
Can you rank the top 3 of this bunch?
Kazmir
Morton
Roark
This assumes Morton pitches of course.
Does Garza’s likely schedule after Wednesday v. PIT (@TB 9/17, @KC 9/22, LAA 9/28) make him droppable for streaming purposes? The other candidate to drop from my roster is Corbin (LAD 9/17, @COL 9/22, WSH 9/27).
Should have said I’d be looking at guys mentioned in the post.
Really, drop these two? How shallow is your league? Garza is almost an every week start for me. Corbin has the tougher schedule, since you can’t start anyone in Coors confidently, and the Dodgers obviously have a good offense. Corbin really only has 1 good start. I’d be more inclined to drop him if you want to reserve 1 slot for streaming and have no one worse.
I normally wouldn’t consider it, but neither has pitched all that well over the past month (and Garza’s been much less reliable since moving to TEX), and I’m in H2H playoffs, looking for any potential edge.
Well a one month sample size has limited predictive value, so you need to include their entire body of work to evaluate them.
Fair point.
Hey Mike, love your work. Can you do me a solid and rank these 4 fringy guys for tomorrow? Estrada, Petit, Haren, and Lynn.
Related: how much does recent performance factor into your daily decisions? Petit’s peripherals look stellar in his brief stint, but Haren and Lynn have been struggling mightlily over their past few turns.
Thanks
Kluber against the White Sox on Thursday is another excellent option.
Oops, meant for that to be a lone post. My bad. Anyway, I’d take Petit over Lynn for sure (Rockies on the road, AT&T is the perfect home park for an extreme flyball RHP)
Sure, but I assume any competitive league, Kluber will be owned.
I ignore ERA. Lynn has pitched well, just gotten bad results. Check his monthly xFIP splits, he’s been fine. Personally though, I have Estrada and Lynn (just picked him up) on the bench, but my league is weekly transactions. Estrada has a tough matchup and the Brewers offense is still solid even without Braun. Petit’s extreme fly ball tendency and crappy track record scare me, so to be honest, Haren’s matchup is best. Of course, his recent results doesn’t have me too confident since he’s had supposed bad luck all year.
I tend to try and ignore ERA as well. But I cannot agree that Lynn has pitched well at all:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2013&month=3&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=1757,2520,1118,4020
That link went to a hitting leaderboard. Lynn’s Jul xFIP was 3.45 and Aug 3.83. He was legit bad in Jun with a 4.40 xFIP, but clearly wasn’t as bad as his 4.83 and 4.84 ERAs in Jul and Aug would suggest. Check out his BABIPs! .370 in Jul and .351 in Aug. That also killed his LOB%.
Really? Mine still goes to the four pitcher’s advanced stats over the last 30 days. My apologies.
Regardless, wouldn’t you rather look at the most recent 30 day period than a more arbitrary one of August 1-31?
Also, at one point would you start to discount Petit’s lackluster track record? You really can’t ask for much better supporting number’s than what he has recorded in his three starts. He’s also not the same pitcher that he was when he was a non-factor as a D’back– he’s added a cutter and is missing way more bats than he ever did. Is it a sample size issue?
I’d rather not look at a 30 day period to begin with! It’s rather meaningless. Why ignore a pitcher’s entire history? It’s silly. Petit is still an extreme fly ball pitcher…a 3 HR allowed start is always around the corner. Three starts is a tiny sample.
Word. Thanks for your help, Mike. Please keep this weekly column going through the rest of the year!
Lynn can’t be used against any LHB-heavy teams. He’s objectively terrible against LHBs – 13.2% BB rate, 17.6% K rate, xFIP of 4.86 this season, and his career numbers are even worse. Even if a team is starting only 3 or 4 LHB, he’s liable to get blown up if he gives up a hit after letting guys get on base. Until he either stops walking lefties or develops a changeup to strike/get them out, I can’t imagine confidently starting him against any but the most right-handed of lineups.
haha I meant Petit. Never even caught it when I posted it. So would rather start Garza (vPIT) and A. Wood (@MIA) over Petit (vCOL)? Where would Kazmir fall in that mix? Thanks Mike!
Yeah, not even close. I love Wood and he has a good matchup and Garza I never really thought of as just a matchup play to begin with. I might slot Kazmir between Wood and Garza (Wood being best option).
Thanks Mike
One last question Mike..
Would you rather start Garza at home against the Pirates or Kazmir at home against the Royals. Checking the numbers, Royals are 20th in wOBA against LHP and Pirates 22nd in wOBA against RHP. Kazmir has faced the Royals 3 times this year with decent results (3.86 era) while Garza has faced the pirates once, throwing 5 scoreless innings. So who do you got?
Toughie. Garza also pitches in a much better hitting environment, but they both face good opposing pitchers. Also, the Pirates offense is now better than the full season wOBA due to their recent acquisitions. Since I think both pitchers are pretty similar, I’d lean toward Kazmir due to the better park and less powerful opponent.
One thing making lean towards Garza is his splits versus rhh. The Pirates throw out a predominantly right handed heavy line up with the likes of Cutch, Buck/Martin, Tabata, Mercer, Byrd. Pedro is probably the only above average lhh, with Morneau and Walker grading out as average. Conversely, Royals have a few lefty smashers in Perez, Butler, and even Hosmer and Gordon hit lhp well. You could argue Royals improved their offense as well with the addition of Bonefacio and Dyson playing every day.
Mike,
Thanks for your help all year and I love the Sleeper and the Bust.
Right rank for NEXT week for these 2 start pitchers?:
Kluber @KC vHOU
Wheeler vSF, @PHI
Cingrani @HOU, @PIT (assume he’s healthy)
Kazmir @KC, vHOU
Your welcome!
Kluber
Cingrani
Kazmir
Wheeler
Thoughts on streaming Wade Miley tomorrow against the Rockies?
Sure, if a couple of strikeouts and a potential win will really help you.
Capuano apparently being moved to the pen. Who’s next on the list to decide whether I advance or not?
McAllister vs CWS or Volquez? I need no Loss/a Win/QS?
McAllister has a good matchup, but you have to be really desperate to stream him. By Volquez, do you mean Edinson? Not sure he’s even streamable in an NL-Only!
Yea, I might be desperate tomorrow. I’ve pretty much got ERA and WHIP covered so I’m going with McAllister. Thanks!