Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – June 29th, 2022

Transcript is below!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!!

1:03

Mac: Strider or Roansy long-term?

1:04

Paul Sporer: Strider for me! He looks every bit like a legit SP

1:05

Jake: think snell figures it out this year? under the hood doesn’t look that far off from career numbers but he’s been tough even in shallow leagues

1:05

Paul Sporer: The tough part is when command goes in and out, he can be great for 3-4 IP and then off for 1-2 and those 1-2 can be killer

1:06

Slurve: Hi Paul! Would you rather start Gonsolin vs SD or Javier vs LAA?

1:06

Paul Sporer: I’d go Gonso bc Javier could be downshifted off the long outing last time out and maybe limited to 5 IP

1:06

Insert Witty Name Here: Apologies for the generalized question, but I’m in the lead of my league with only one real challenger.  How do you analyze a team at the halfway point when everything is going right?

1:07

Paul Sporer: Just keep your foot on the gas. Do some worst case scenario’ing and some honest analysis of your hot starters who will regress and work from there. Sometimes things just go right from Opening Day until October

1:07

Insert Witty Name Here: Do you think Jon Gray has figured it out? Top 25 arm ROS?

1:08

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t quite go Top 25, but I think those of us who’ve been big Jon Gray fans and desperately wanted him out of Coors all those years are finally getting what we dreamed for!

1:08

Joey Joe Joe Jr Shabadoo: Where do sit with Casty this week, Buy/Sell/Hold?

1:08

Paul Sporer: I’m still in on Casty, so I’d buy

1:08

Connor: When is Justin going to do a fangraphs chat? You mentioned months ago that it was going to happen but haven’t seen anything. Hope it’s not another thing that’s migrated to his Patreon.

1:09

Paul Sporer: I’ll ping him again. We gotta hammer out his day, but it’s still very much on the table for him

1:09

H-Dog: Berrios of Giolito ROS? All the stuff numbers still like berrios pitch quality but projections prefer Gio to bounce back more

1:10

Paul Sporer: I much prefer Giolito at this juncture. Not just bc of his gem at LAA this week, either. He has shown a lot more than Berrios. They both have fixable issues, but Giolito isn’t as far off at all, IMO

1:10

Jake: all things equal you taking luke voit or longoria ROS in h2h ops league?

1:10

Paul Sporer: I’d stick w/my guy Voit

1:10

ROBOCOP: Any advice on how to handle the awkward situation of a friend/acquaintance losing interest and neglecting his roster in a keeper league?

1:11

Paul Sporer: Just say check in on him and see how he’s doing in general. Then maybe bring the convo to fantasy. If he says he’s got a lot goin on, suggest that maybe you can take that off his plate if you have a replacement on tap

1:11

guest: Faedo for ROS. Has the league figure him out, is he tiring?

1:13

Paul Sporer: I think it’s more the ebbs & flows of an SP4. He hasn’t been great in his last 3, but two were v. CWS & BOS so those are good teams (I know CWS hasn’t been great offensively, but they still have plenty of superstar talent)

1:13

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. I’m sitting in 9th in my 12tm mixed roto league and I’ve reached the point where I’m trying to avoid the league penalty (bottom 4 finish) instead of trying to reach the money (top 3). But my team is broken and I need to make pickups, while defending against other teams picking up guys later that help propel them.

What would be your hold / drop rating for these guys in the 12tm going forward: W. Buehler, T. Megill, B. Snell, A. Meadows, H. Bader, C. Bellinger. Appreciate it!

1:15

Paul Sporer: I’d consider cutting Meadows and Megill. I’m holding the others. Rest of the talent is too good to pass on

1:15

Jake: tony disco is better than this right?! hard to expect a repeat from last year…but yikes

1:15

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s how I feel, too! I’d reserve him if I’m holding, but I can’t completely quit him

1:15

Woody: Woodruff was consistently hitting 99 mph in his start last night.  Are you predicting a second half similar to what he had last year?

1:16

Paul Sporer: I never wavered on him and was greatly encouraged by last night

1:16

Jay: Michael Kopech. I am not sure how to view him. His advanced stats are not great. But then he goes and shoves in Yankee Stadium. Some starts he’s sitting 94. Sometimes he’s 97. What are getting out of him ROS?

1:16

Paul Sporer: He is terrifying and impossible to figure out and yet he never leaves my rotation bc the upside is so rich. I’m not a fan of rollercoasters, yet I’m committed to this one right now

1:17

Guest: is Varsho a top 5 catcher for you?

1:18

Paul Sporer: Yes, even with a lower AVG, he has top 5 capability so I have him ranked there

1:18

Yants: How fucking lit is Shane McClanahan?

1:19

Paul Sporer: He is truly amazing! I’m such a huge fan!!!

1:19

Jake: you still holding taylor ward in all formats? i appreciate the podcast with justin about living with expected regression but most if not all of what ward was doing earlier in the season isnt happening anymore

1:20

Paul Sporer: I think you’re remembering a 2-week lull from two weeks ago. He had a .409 OPS from 5/26-6/18, but is back up to .966 over his last 9 gms

1:20

Here Berti Berti: Do you see Jon Berti winning enough playing time to start at least 5 games a week? Or should one sell high on him?

1:22

Paul Sporer: You can definitely sell high, but even if the PT isn’t at 5 starts a week, he should play enough to still be an SB option in most formats. Reminds of Rajai Davis/Jarrod Dyson from years ago. They were fantasy studs as 4th OF types who might only start 2 gms a week and sub into 2-3 more, but would steal so much you couldn’t take em out

1:22

kcc26: Am i wrong to feel like Verlander is a big-time sell high?  feels like he’s performed in a way that the market may value him much closer to his peak…but the fastball and Ks aren’t quite the same.

1:24

Paul Sporer: His SIERA is 3.47. His fastball velo is matching 2018-20 levels. The Ks are def down, but only from elite to simply good enough. He’s sellable in that he will net a big return, but I don’t see any sort of cliff

1:24

Faz: Points league: would you trade Tucker & Mckenzie for Olson and K Wright? Trying to upgrade pitching without losing much in hitting. Currently in 4/10

1:27

Paul Sporer: I’m OK w/this. It achieves your goal. I don’t have a huge split b/w McKenzie & Wright but I have Wright higher

1:28

Jake: is clevdog a mid 3s guy ROS if he can stay healthy? not sure if you’re a fan since he was injured during your latest SP rankings

1:29

Paul Sporer: Yes a healthy ClevDog is mid-to-high 3s. I’d obviously like to see that swinging strike rate turn back up, but I’m in on healthy Clev

1:30

Dave: ROS outlook on Oneil Cruz now that he’s up?  Is he an impact player in 12-team mixed?  Or more of a “he should be on *a* roster, but not necessarily *your* roster” type?

1:32

Paul Sporer: He’s definitely the latter description for 10s, but I’d try to fit him on a 12-teamer. There are definitely 12-tm scenarios where you just don’t have the cut, but his upside is so rich that I’d be turning over every rock to be certain I don’t have a cut for him if he’s available in a 12

1:33

Rich: Is Alex Cobb still worth holding onto?  Tired of hearing how he’s the “unluckiest pitcher” in baseball.  He seems to have great stuff but can’t put it all together.

1:34

Paul Sporer: I know that’s frustrating, but you can run bad for a good while just like someone can run really hot for 2-3 mos. as we’ve seen with someone like Martin Perez. Cobb has started to turn the ship around with a 3.77 ERA/1.26 WHIP including 14 Ks in 14.3 IP over his last 3. I’m sticking w/him for now

1:34

Mr. Wright: Kyle Wright has given up over 20 hits the past 2 games.  Any reason to be nervous or is it just bad luck?  Start him tonight vs Phillies?

1:35

Paul Sporer: 17 singles and a .541 BABIP. Not saying he didn’t earn any of it, but I don’t see it sustaining at that level of hit allowance. He’s a full on must start for me right now.

1:35

Enrico Palazzo: Couldn’t the Braves be trying harder to get Wm Contreras and his 900 ops into the lineup every day?

1:36

Paul Sporer: It’s tough, though. He’s the backup C and you try to avoid having both of your Cs play too often at the same time. TdA has been really good, too. If they still had Piña, I bet Contreras would be an OF regular

1:37

Dan Threw Up On My Deck: How do we feel about Adolis and his ROS pace? He has had a stellar week, but assuming some regression should someone with SB needs buy right now?

1:40

Paul Sporer: Anyone needing SBs should absolutely scoop him where available. I was NOT an Adolis fan coming into the season, but the hate went too far on him and I wish I’d have pounced. He was a 15/15 lock going around pick 200. Now he’s a lock for 15/15 with a chance at something crazy like 30/25. Even if we pace it down a bit, he’s still an SB pickup for the short-term

1:40

Abe: Long term are you more of a Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo fan?

1:41

Paul Sporer: I have a Lodolo lean

1:44

Jolly Rogers: Would you start Kelly @ Colorado this week?

1:44

Paul Sporer: No shot

1:44

Guest: Just trade p Sandoval and Oneil Cruz for montas thoughts?

1:45

Paul Sporer: It’s a little rich if Montas doesn’t get traded this year to improve his W potential, but I don’t have any problems with it. Fantasy aces are expensive, Sandoval’s ERA will regress if he doesn’t start curbing the base runners, and Cruz is a wildcard

1:45

Jake: any further leanings towards justins ranking on skubal after last nights outing? the walks are really ticking up lately

1:46

Paul Sporer: I’m still higher than Justin’s 29. I might have him 4-5 spots lower, but I’m just not too worried given the stiff competition outside of the TEX start

1:47

Guest: Berrios was cut in my league. Would you consider swapping him for Ryan, Perez, Anderson or Giolito?

1:47

Paul Sporer: Giolito or Ryan

1:47

Cito: Any hesitation owning Tampa Bay Rays prospects in dynasty leagues with a weekly h2h format? I have Curtis Mead in one, and worry that he might get the Bruján treatment of 3-5 starts/week when he’s ultimately promoted. And Mead’s stock is rising – maybe a sell candidate?

1:49

Paul Sporer: If Mead is hitting, he will play. It’s still a small sample and I haven’t quit him, but Brujan has done nothing to earn extra PT by posting a whopping 20 wRC+ in his MLB time

1:49

Colton: If you had to pick between Austin Hays, Nimmo, or Benintendi for the ROS, who would you go with? Harper going down leave me an open IL slot but whoever I pick up stays until Harper comes back (weird league rule).

1:49

Paul Sporer: Hays is the only one close to replacing Harper’s lost power so I think he’s the choice

1:50

Cliff: Hey Pat, big fan big fan.  What are Strasburgs long term prospects in a dynasty league?

1:50

Paul Sporer: Remarkably grim. I have no real hope for any sort of rebound at this juncture. Stras is one of my favorite SPs so I’ll be rooting for it, but just don’t see it

1:50

Guest: You expect Dean Kremer to stay hot or to fall down a cliff?

1:54

Paul Sporer: I view him similarly to teammate Tyler Wells. They have very similar statistical profiles. Their new home park w/the extend-o wall in Camden will help them possibly outrun their component numbers, but I’d plan for a low-4.00s ERA and take anything better than that as a win

1:54

Enrico Palazzo: Over/under for Nimmo 10hr/10sb ROS?

1:54

Paul Sporer: O on HR/U on SB

1:55

Kevin: How much is too much to give up for Juan Soto?  I have an offer on the table for bichette, Hoskins and joe Ryan.  I already have trea and story with springer and teoscar so bichette is redundant all around (also have acuna).  I feel like Soto is all babip related and I could plus whatever holes the trade might create and build around the superstars.

1:56

Paul Sporer: It kind depends on league size. In a 10- or 12-teamer, I’m certainly open to this bc you’re wanting to consolidate talent. In deeper formats, I’m less likely to do deals like this.

1:56

Guest: Rodon’s velocity continues to trend downward.  Last night, he couldn’t go 6 IP against the Tigers.  Time to sell him?

2:00

Paul Sporer: Velo was down, but he did go 6.

2:01

Paul Sporer: Whoops, I hit enter too quickly. The velo dip is scary given his career injury issues, but I’m not rushing to sell here. You can likely still fetch a mint, so do some shopping and if the price is right, don’t hesitate to jump

2:01

Not Ucci: How long of a leash do we give CJ Abrams before sending him back to waivers?

2:03

Paul Sporer: I’d probably send him back right now in 10s and 12s. Might hold another wk in 15s.

2:03

Bob: Was Kershaw a victim of Coors Tuesday or do you think there is something else brewing?

2:03

Paul Sporer: He played second fiddle to Kyle Freeland

2:03

Paul Sporer: (I’m not worried. It’s the risk we run sending anyone to Coors, even a stud)

2:04

Walter: Tough decisions to make, could use your expertise Paul.  In a 12tm H2H QS, SV/HLD league, I have to one of either Stripling, Springs, Wainwright or Uriquidy. Or I could cut Gallegos. Who would you drop? Thanks Paul..

2:06

Paul Sporer: I’d prob go Urq or GG. If your SV/HD are on lock, you can drop GG (though he is getting HD at least). Urq & Strip are kinda similar so maybe just keep one of them and play the hot hand in Strip right now

2:06

Lurch: Please rank ROS: Olivares, Abrams, Naylor, Gorman

2:06

Paul Sporer: Naylor, Olivares, Gorman, Abrams

2:07

Kate: Morel is racking up the Ks a bit over the last couple weeks.  Obviously this was bound to happen eventually.  How confident are you he can adjust back?

2:09

Paul Sporer: Yeah a 36% rate this month is a lotttt. My concern will rise when it starts costing him the leadoff spot. He still has a .355 BABIP in that time so his .687 OPS is bad, but not DREADFUL as it could’ve been w/so many Ks. Holding tight w/him, but staying on top of that K rate & playing time for sure

2:09

kevinthecomic: The actor who played Susan’s dad on Seinfeld was Lucas Giolito’s real life grandfather!

2:11

Paul Sporer: Yess!! I knew of his Hollywood ties via the Frost family on his mom’s side and his dad Rick!

2:11

Guest: Profar has turned in a nice season so far. Concerned about where he hits in the order once Manny and Tatis are back? Any playing time concerns?

2:12

Paul Sporer: Let’s get Tatis back before we worry too much about that, but yes he will move down when both are back. I’d still take him as a latter third of the order guy

2:12

Kate: Is Josiah Gray turning the corner or is this just a stretch where he’s gotten kinda lucky on HRs?

2:12

Paul Sporer: Mostly the latter. Until we see tangible changes to curb the HR rate, it’s really just a hot streak for me

2:12

Vince: t

2:12

Paul Sporer: u

2:12

TBD: Are you rolling the dice with Snell and LAD?

2:12

Paul Sporer: Only in 15s or deeper. Reserving elsewhere

2:13

Walter: Thanks for answering my question above, very helpful. Are you at all worried about Wander Franco? Is he going to be a middling fantasy asset?

2:13

Paul Sporer: I don’t know how he’ll finish. We know he has the talent to be insane, but I was worried he’d be relatively middling compared to his lofty price which is why I faded him this year

2:13

Guest: Time to cut Eric Lauer in a 10-team or 12-team?

2:14

Paul Sporer: 10s yes, I’m still looking to team stream in 12s. No HRs today at least, but another uninspiring start

2:14

Tom: Do you like Junis or Strippling ROS?

2:14

Paul Sporer: I wanna love Junis, but he just can’t stay healthy so I lean Strip

2:14

Dana Eveland Fan Club: What’s the value gap between Andres Gimenez and Oneil Cruz in a dynasty?

2:15

Paul Sporer: I lean toward Gimenez by a little, but not a huge margin between ’em

2:16

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I’m going to head out! I gotta prepare for a guest spot later today on Pregame Spread on MLB Network at 5pm ET if you get a chance to check it out!! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Carson Kahlamember
1 month ago

Martin Perez has a 2.6 FIP and a 2.22 ERA, at this point drop the preconceived notions and look at what he’s doing. He’s locating better than he ever has in his career, throwing the sinker more often again, GB% is back in-line with his early career numbers and he’s not allowing Barrels or hard hits. No he doesn’t strike people out at a crazy clip but all the underlying statistics say this is a real change.

mills9lane
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Maybe but it started to look terrible under the hood for Vargas in May that year. He fluked May and June. Perez just had a June with a .380 BABIP and survived with an ERA under 4. Vargas also didn’t miss any bats at all. Perez isnt a strikeout guy but 7.5/9 and a groundball rate above 50% should keep him solid. He also throws much harder than Vargas did. He’ll regress, but with the dead ball this year I think it’s unfair to assume the bottom will just fall out.