Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – June 22nd, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hey everyone!

Zeff Jimmerman: So why isn’t Nestor Cortez on your Main Event team

Paul Sporer: RUDE!

Honkus Wagner: starting Morton & Blackburn tonight?

Paul Sporer: Yes for both

Faz: Who are a few 3b options likely available in 10 team points leagues that I should be targeting?

Paul Sporer: More efficient to give me the names you’re considering and then I can give my opinion instead of shooting in the dark at who’s available

Tom: What can the nats get for Josh Bell?

Paul Sporer: I’d think at least one strong prospect. The deadline market has rebounded a bit for selling teams in recent years

Honkus Wagner: are you dropping Rodgers or Lux for Grandal

Paul Sporer: Rodgers

BD: Hey Paul: is (my) Nestor Cortes for (his) Eliy Jiminez a fair trade?

Paul Sporer: No issues with that

guest: Both Riley Greene and Oneal Cruz are FA.  League is std redraft points. What % FAAB do you recommend.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: How big is your need? I think that drives pricing more than anything right now because budgets are slimming down and with that, prices are dropping. There will still be some big plays like this, but it depends on need

Mike: Starting Giolito in 4 minutes?

Paul Sporer: Yes

ThadBosley: I have Christian Yelich and Alex Bregman on my team.  Is there any hope for improvement?

Paul Sporer: I mean they haven’t been that bad. Bregman has a 115 wRC+ and I could easily see a summer heater coming. And while Yelich only has a 94 wRC+, it comes with 7 HR & 10 SB. He, too, could get hot, but he’s been a top 100 player so this level would be acceptable, too.

Mason: How worried are you about Rocchio’s performance in AA? 81wrc+ with questionable contact ability and zero power. Slow start or is he overmatched and overrated by the community at large. Doesn’t look like top 50 prospect to me.

Paul Sporer: I’m not too concerned. With all else being equal (or better than norms), I’m seeing the .258 BABIP as a major culprit to his line suppression. K% down 1 pt and BB% up 5 pts. Low line drive definitely plays into his low BABIP so it won’t just magically regress, but I’m not really seeing overmatched especially considering he had a similar size sample at AA last year w/a 135 wRC+. So we have one good, one bad. I’m giving him time at age-21.

Faz: Thoughts on Tristan McKenzie ROS? Seems to outperforming his peripherals but will he sustain the current prodcuction. Is there a breakout in here?

Paul Sporer: As currently constructed, I do expect regression as the BABIP goes up and makes that HR rate sting more. But he certainly has the stuff to improve that K rate and if he lowers the volume of contact, it can certainly soften the expected regression. There is definitely that next gear upside, but it remains to be seen if we see it this year.

Scott M.: Any insight on the Texas C/DH situation? Between Garver and Heim I can’t figure out who to keep, and I absolutely can’t keep both.

Paul Sporer: I’d keep Heim. They have no problem playing both and can even mix Huff in w/1 at DH and the other at 1B, but Heim is the mainstay.

Faz: Chris Taylor

Paul Sporer: Agree!

Paul Sporer: Oh i was being a smartass. You were naming 10 team available 3Bs lol

Faz: taylor, Hayes, chapman, burger Donaldson

Paul Sporer: I like Hayes the best of that bunch. The others are better if you specifically need power, but Hayes is my pick

Furd Tergeson: Max Meyer is back at AAA, Brayan Bello just keeps dominating, and DL Hall might as well get a look on an up-and-coming O’s team.  Who should be picked up soonest as a speculative add for a 12tm H2H points league (keeper league, but competing for this year)?

Paul Sporer: It’s impossible to predict call-ups so I just want the best of the bunch and for me that’s Meyer. It’s an intriguing trio, all of whom will garner attention upon arrival. Meyer is definitely my favorite of the group

guest: Re: need vs Greene or Crus FAAB.  No need either.  Would drop bench player.  Probably Bader…or Ashby, if I dont replace Ashby with a SP.  Looking for “best upside 2022:  thanks, again

Paul Sporer: I don’t think either has that much more upside than Bader for the rest of this year so I’m not sure I’d pay what it will likely to take to get them

Guest: Surprised I’m asking this, but who do you like better test of season, bellinger or haniger?  (Either would just be a bench bat for me, currently holding bellinger, but haniger was just cut)

Paul Sporer: I’d just stick with the guy who’s playing

Snell: What level pitcher to trade for Drury in a 12 team obp h2h?  No idea how to value him.

Paul Sporer: Maybe look for a popup guy who seems believable but doesn’t have a track record. Strider, Springs, etc…

Graham: Yelich feels like he just has a line drive problem and should have a big month coming.

Paul Sporer: Yeah 15% LD rate with a 22% career. Reasonable bet that it regresses and he pops off when it does

ERIC LAUER: Am I toast?

Paul Sporer: Off 2 crummy starts where he allowed 6 HR in 2 of the most HR friendly parks in the league? Seems rash.

DH: Do you forsee Berti keeping consistent playing time when Anderson and Wendle return?

Paul Sporer: Maybe lose a gm here & there, but if he keeps hitting, he’ll keep playing IMO

N: Optimal time to trade guys like MacKenzie Gore who will likely have innings limits if I get a decent offer?

Paul Sporer: Around now through July. Everyone knows they are likely to be limited so the price basically just starts going down around the trade deadline almost regardless of how well they pitch

Giolito: Sell me Low or Hold?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to taking what I can get

Life of the Tigers: Is it just me, or do you think adding Riley Greene is going to help turn things around (slightly, at least) for the Tigers offense? They seem to have a little more spark since the call-up, Baez is running. Just a better energy.

Paul Sporer: Part of it is that the offense is going to regress no matter what just because “baseball” but adding a bat like him no doubt helps. He’ll likely get outsized credit if they really pop off and get everyone on track. I’m fine with it, though, I’ve already nicknamed him The Catalyst

Urq: Can I hope that last night’s win over the Mets is a sign of an Urquidy turnaround?

Paul Sporer: Yes, the fastball was much better and that’s the key, of course. I’m encouraged by both he and Aaron Civale, my finesse faves!

Char’s Treat Dealer: Oscar Gonzalez PT safe with Franmil coming back?  Looks like Owen Miller was the first to hit the bench, but I assume this will be some kind of rotation of several guys getting a day or two off per week?

Paul Sporer: Yes he seems safe and as long as he’s producing, he’s playing. I don’t think he’s super safe if he hits a major cold snap and that .403 BABIP will obviously come way down, but it could be replaced by power production turning up which would be a perfectly fine trade off

Dave: Would you hold Torkelson in a dynasty league or sell high-ish for playoff help this season?

Paul Sporer: I’d hold

Urq: BTW, you’ve been really delivering great stuff this year. The detail/frequency of the boxscore bits and in the recent pitching ranks are awesome.

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much! Some days I can’t do BB due to time (today being one such day), but I’m trying to stay consistent on at leasttttt 3 a week if not all 5. It’s a fun process deep diving every box score, but it can be time consuming on full slate days so sometimes I just can’t get it done (Nick is a stud for doing Daily Roundup every. single. day!!). I might just start doing like a lite version on those days so there’s at least something. Because there have been times that I wrote up 10-12 arms but then couldn’t finish it due to other commitments and scraped it instead of at least posting that

Noah: So Isaac Paredes….should he be picked up. Side note do I use pitch info plate discipline or regular plate discipline. O-Swing% vastly different for Paredes between the two

Paul Sporer: Ehhhhhhh

Paul Sporer: In 12s and deeper perhaps, but I’m not sure I see the next big thing here

Paul Sporer: He is completely selling out for power with a 10-pt jump in flyball rate and a hot 21% HR/FB rate,  but it’s all or nothing.

mario: Start Skubal at Boston or Lauer vs STL? or neither and go for a random streamer later in week?

Paul Sporer: Skubal has earned auto start status for me

Luis: Does muncys power rebound? also a low line drive guy. Could move cease for him in an obp / qs league. No real needs on pitching or hitting side

Paul Sporer: Not until the elbow is healed, IMO. Hard to think it’s anything but that and it just might not be back to 100% at any pt this year

Kirk: How long do I stay sad about trading Alejandro Kirk for Myles Straw last month?

Paul Sporer: Maybe until Straw steals like 6 bases in a 10-gm span… if he even does that at any pt this year

Tony: too early to tell if india will revert back to production levels similar to last year?

Paul Sporer: Indeed

Cookie: Cookie running into some trouble in Houston…

Paul Sporer: Not terribly surprising… it’s always tough to go to HOU

Buttcheex: Cobb or Blackburn ROS? Jeremy Pena or Polanco ROS?

Paul Sporer: Cobb and Peña

Michael: Thank you for all the great content and the chats you do!  Question 1: Keeper points league, who do you see having more long-term value E. Duran (Tex) or L. Garcia (WSN), or for that matter are neither really difference makers and I should look to use the roster spot elsewhere (Javy Baez, A. Volpe, and Gunnar Henderson are available to name a few).
Question 2: Same league, do you think Soroka is worth a stash for short-term and/or long-term value?
*no really glaring need for short-term or long-term, more of a stash/upside situation

Paul Sporer: I prefer Garcia to Duran and I’m OK stashing Soroka if you have the free spot. If you need the IL spot later, he’s an easy cut.

Char’s Treat Dealer: Ezequiel Duran losing PT with Josh Smith returning from the IL?  Does he get sent back down?

Paul Sporer: Part of why I prefer Garcia in the previous Q. Smith is the lefty so he gets that platoon preference, too. I could see him getting sent down if they aren’t able to get him enough PT

Bill: Should I start Baz vs the Yankees in a points league?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. The Yankees are a team I try to avoid. PTs league makes it a little easier because high K guys can salvage starts when things go wrong

Mr. Hotdog: are you selling on Tatis if you can add for a playoff run

Paul Sporer: Definitely

The Catalyst: I like this Catalyst nickname! If he hits middle expectations, is Greene a $19 keeper in AL OBP league?

Paul Sporer: It wouldn’t be an amazing discount at middle expectations, but he’d certainly be keepable in that range

Bert: Baz for Oneil Cruz.  Keeper. Which side are you on?

Paul Sporer: Cruz, but fair deal

Homer: Paul…F. Peralta has had two seasons with shoulder injuries and missing meaningful time.  In a keeper league where he’s still a value, are you comfortable with the long term outlook on a guy like that, or should I capitalize on the keeper value and move on?

Paul Sporer: Even absent the potentially chronic issue you mention, I’m always open to moving pitching like that in keeper leagues for bankable bats. Not a revolutionary strategy of course, but it’s still my foundation

Homer: Judge…I saw an article last year that said a hot first half, is generally not followed by a comparable second half.  How you feeling about him ROS?

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to stay that hot all year, but he’s also one of the best players in the league and players like that break norms

Dr J: Urquidy or Detmers more than streamers in 15 team?

Paul Sporer: Not right now, no. Urq impressed last night, though

Sean: Are there any potential innings limits for injury returners severino or verlander?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see JV being limited in the slightest unless he’s hurt. I also don’t think NYY is going to be super cautious on Sevvy. He has 2 190s under his belt and while he might not get all the way there this year, I don’t see him being sidelined for any amount of time. Occasional skips, maybe early pulls w/big leads here & there, but that’s it IMO

Not so Merry-Field: Is Whit toast? A good buy low? You can’t steal first base, especially at 33.

Paul Sporer: Last 40 gms: .290/.333/.414 w/3 HR, 6 SB (12/24 full season pace). He’s back and fine, but he’s working off an impossibly bad .139/.179/.167 line so it will take some time for the bottom line to look right. As such, I’d still buy if the overall line is creating a discount

Paul Sporer: Kirk HR again

C to Shining C: What are the Jays going to do with all these catchers? I’m so psyched about all three, except that they are in a death match for playing time. Trade?

Paul Sporer: C is a toughhh position so the depth doesn’t hurt. They don’t haaaave to trade it. We want them to bc all 3 are fantasy viable, but it makes plenty of sense to keep ’em all espec. if Kirk was primarily the DH and playing daily when Jansen is healthy

need4speed: What would make Berti slow down? Other teams have to know he’s running already

Paul Sporer: The .375 BABIP will likely come down, but I don’t see him being slowed on the bases. This is giving me major Rajai Davis vibes from the late-2010s before he became a known commodity

Homer: C to Shining C…best name of the chat.  Well done!

Paul Sporer: lolol

Richard: Do you see Dean Kremer as having any value in AL-only leagues going forward? How do you see his value compared to Tyler Wells?

Paul Sporer: Wells is a perfect name to bring up! They have remarkably similar statistical profiles and as such, Kremer definitely has some AL only viability

murks: Who to bench out of these starts? Baz vs NYY, Joe Ryan vs COL, Gonsolin @ ATL, Mahle @ SF, or Strider vs LAD

Paul Sporer: In 10s and 12s, I pass on Baz v. NYY and probably Strider v. LAD. In 15s or deeper, I use ’em all

Farhandrew Zaidman: Catman obviously isn’t going to keep up a sub 2.00 pace, but the gains this year seem legit, right?

Paul Sporer: They really do. He got his control back in check after last year’s walk issues. Still has a hiccup here & there, but 8% BB is completely fine with a 25% or higher K rate. His 3.74 SIERA is a good guideline for what I expect rest of season

Connor Joe Mama: Despite average skills and underlying metrics, Martin Perez continues to shine. Is he more than a Vargas rule? I feel like he’s gonna have a 5 ERA after I pick him up.

Paul Sporer: Nope, still a complete Vargas Rule

Paul Sporer: Shouts to Nick Pollack. Vargas Rule: It’s a rule that’s applied when a pitcher who is historically not so great is performing at a high level we didn’t expect. You keep starting him until he gives us a reason not to, inspired by Jason Vargas‘ ridiculous start to the 2017 season.

Paul Sporer: Vargas stayed hot through June and wound up with a 4.18 ERA. Perez is one of the longest Vargas Rules since the phrase was coined

Mr. Redlegs: Was offered Leiter for Meyer straight up. I’m giving up Meyer. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Meyer personally

Barry: Bethancourt ok as 2nd catcher in 12 team mixed? Other options are Navaerz, Raleigh, Stassi

Paul Sporer: Yes. He’s already coming off his hot streak w/a 2-for-22 run including 9 Ks, but he has some pop & speed so I’m cool holding for now. If this cold streak expands beyond a standard downturn, move on

John: I have Semien and I need more power, I have a good lead in SB.  In an OBP AL only league, who would you try to target?

Paul Sporer: Taylor Ward, Josh Naylor, Jared Walsh type deal

Chris: Is flaherty worth holding in a 10T keeper league where he cost me nothing?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding another couple starts

Jeter: Is it ok to be biased against Jeter Downs because of my longstanding dislike of Derek Jeter?

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL yes

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!